seak05

Yeah, I don't think they're going to cut all of their bullpen depth, but there's a lot of options in terms of guys we can get rid of if we need space.

Gunnar doesn't need to be added to the 40 man yet, and you need to re-add people that are on the DL, so he takes up a spot you could use to protect someone from the 40 man. If you add him in spring training, you can move someone to the 60 day DL to solve the crunch (an example would be the newly acquired Seth Johnson, he will need a 40 man spot in November, but he'll go on the 60 day DL in the spring)

Trying to project the 40 man for roughly Dec 1 (whenever the official date is for protecting rule 5 eligible: Currently on 40 and will be kept (24), Currently not on 40 but will be added 4 + any free agent pickups (light blue means they're currently on the 40man, I also put Lyles on bubble due to contract, but I don't think they'd DFA him) Locks Bubble non-40 callups Akin Ellis Gunnar Baker Garcia Jordan Bautista Gilaspie Bradish Head Cano Lains Sr Hall Lyles Krehbiel Reyes Kremer Sulser Means Vallimont Perez A Wells Tate Zimmermann Vespi Nevin Phillips Diaz Martin Aruaz Voth Rom Watkins Handley T Wells Denoyer Adley Fontana Mateo Mountcastle Urias Vavra Hays McKenna Mullins Santander Seth Johnson Grayson Ortiz Stowers

I think there's value to that strategy in September. I think there's very little value to that strategy right now though, since you would lose the chance at the extra draft pick. You're also making an assumption that he doesn't start the season on the OD roster. I think you balance that with the fact that if you wait till next year, you don't have to put him on the 40man roster this fall and that gives you more flexibility there

Mountcastle not making the OD roster is probably the best data point, but it's clouded by the fact that he can't really play defense, and I don't think Elias is a fan of his playing style, so I'm not sure it was entirely about service time. I think next years OD roster will be highly illuminating, if Gunnar and Grayson are on it, they're clearly not as worried about service time...and if they're in Triple A, there's clearly service time gaming going on (with the rosters no longer expending in September, anecdotally I've noticed a lot fewer prospect debuts in Aug/Sept across organizations, and there are 40 man considerations as well)

Ortiz should be in Norfolk. Heck bring him up to the O’s to play second. (Not going to happen for a variety of reasons)

I don’t think we do? Which prospects had clearly demonstrated success over time at triple a during elias’ tenure? Adley for one, but he got injured Bradish coming off big September didn’t make OD roster but was recalled before super 2 deadline Vavra demonstrated success and was called up hall hasn’t demonstrated sustained success Gunnar/Grayson have had very short stints at triple a so far. I know we’re impatient but Gunnar hasn’t even been at triple a two months yet. I don’t think that’s really out of line for how most organizations operate

I don’t think we really know his normal MO to be honest. I think he clearly believes that players should succeed at every level, so Grayson wasn’t going to be on the OD roster. But if we take him at his word (so who knows) the plan seems to have been for Adley to be on the OD roster pre-injury. Gunnar will be an interesting test case, as he will also have already succeeded at triple A when spring training comes around.

I was wondering when we were going to start getting the "Adley is a dude" at catcher articles. Glad to see the first one. Combining off/def he's probably already a top 5 catcher in baseball

I'm saying no, but more because of the 40 man issue, and that I don't think Elias is planning to push for the playoffs this year. I think he's on the OD roster next year, so the service time issue is moot (as long as they wait until after mid-august). That said, if the club is still in the thick of it on Sept 1, I wouldn't be totally surprised if it happened. I also think Henderson probably wouldn't make as much of a difference to this years team as some of you probably hope. Counting on a prospect offensively off the bat tends to lead to disappointment, and Urias is playing a good def 3b (and I'm not sure how good he'll be at 2b)

Agree, one thing that strikes me watching Adley is that he's very comfortable hitting with two strikes. I think that might be something Cowser struggles with

I'm sure they would love to have Mullins, and that's why it's 1 Mayo/Westburg type prospect, and not a top 5 guy + 2 more in the top 10. Other CF exist, top line starters are more rare, and he still has two years

I loved Bradish’s outing against Texas. We’ve seen a couple times now him dominate when all his stuff was on, but that’s generally not the norm for any sp. What I loved about Texas is a turned in a strong start despite not having his A or even B game

I think the chances of Miami trading Lopez without getting multiple long term controllable players isn’t happening. Mullens, and then you’re probably talking someone in the 5-10 prospect range (maybe a Mayo) and another top 30 prospect

They also need a visa, so it’s a little more complicated (and they’re very young, think hs junior)

A little bit of a different option

Yes, BUT IT'S NOT THE ONLY THING IN THE ENTIRE WORLD. Most organizations also value things like playing at Triple-A, and being healthy And I know you have convinced yourself that the O's made up an injury to Adley to not have him start the year on the OD roster, and Scott Boras joined in on the conspiracy, but my guess is the Orioles also like draft picks. I don't think they'll call him up now, because they would lose the potential draft pick if he loses rookie eligibility.

At the beginning of the chat Dan S also says he doesn't think the Orioles want to add Gunnar to the 40 yet, which is a different issue

I'm fairly certain the Mets do too...and yet they're still not calling him up. Anyways thought the parallels were interesting

It's interesting the parallels with Mets fan, who are clamoring for Francisco Alvaraez to be called up to solve their catching issues (he apparently will not be called up soon, at least at the moment)

Think he’s a prime candidate to go to the afl

I think it’s fundamentally a poor decision on behalf of mlb, given where society is moving.

It’s a little nitpicky, but since his promotion to triple a his gb% has increased to almost 50%, and his k% is almost double his bb% (23-13) I’m in camp bring him up mid-august, but there are a couple things I could see them wanting him to improve

Chirinos is exactly the kind of catcher you sign if you plan on Adley being on the OD roster. Older part time player As to some grand conspiracy around Adley’s injury, Scott boras isn’t exactly a quietly into the night agent. If he thought they were lying, I suspect we’d know. (as to hall I wonder if Elias regrets having said that, I think he expected hall to be more consistently dominant at triple a then he has been)