drjohnnyfeva

I voted under. I think they play about .400 in 2021. That's a decrease from 2020, but I still think it represents progress. Playing a shortened season was an advantage to win percentage this year, imo. I think they played well sometimes, but there were also some real stinkers. A full season is a different animal. They've gained about .040 in the winning percentage since 2018 until this year. I took 21 wins this year. That would have been a 0.025 increase over 2019's .333 winning percentage. I was conservative with that pick. I'll follow that again for next year. I think they play .400 ball, so that represents 64.8 wins. I'll guess 65 wins. I think that's improvement despite a dip in the winning percentage when the full schedule comes back into play. Anything significantly greater than that, like .430 ball ( 69.66 wins) or higher, I think is an indication that what we saw in 2020 was the beginning of the turning around of this team and not just an illusion cast by a shortened season.

You're correct. I was basing it off of a .400 winning percentage (24-36) which is 10-11+ over last year. The actual winning percentage for the year was .416666667 which makes your 13.5 game improvement correct. I think I transposed the 7 games from an earlier post I was referring to... idk. Your numbers are correct.

So in my initial post, I said that "...24 wins would be highly successful." I think that was a little over stated in retrospect, but I think it's hard to envision what a percentage looks like in reality as that stat plays out thru a season...even a short season of 60 games I will say, I think we learned a good deal about who we have, what they do, how they need to improve, and what we need to add. That will go a long way to improving. In so called real time, this was a 7 game win increase over last season if we average the performance over a full length season. Not spectacular, but improvement. I thought we were more competitive this year just from the eye/smell test, but that might have just been the placebo of having baseball as a nice diversion with the pandemic. Which ever it was, I still enjoyed watching this team more this year and feel like they did play better than last year. Congrats to esmd! Closest to the retail price without going over!

I agree with both of the above. I wasn't knocking their progress, but as you say and as I said, it's hard to make "great" strides in 60 games. They are better for having played and having given the up and comers a bit of a taste of the bigs. I'm more enthusiastic about next year than I was at the start of this year, given what I've seen this year.

Ultimately, while I enjoyed watching baseball and the O's, I don't think they made any great strides. I like that we traded guys that belong on an MLB team, so that we can maybe give a roster spot to someone that MIGHT belong on a MLB team so that we can evaluate them. I think we got good return. Remains to be seen, tho. As fun as it was to think, "What if this is the turning point season?" Not so much, after all, but I'm still excited about the future.

I predicted 21 wins at the beginning, it would be hard for them to not reach that mark. So I'm looking at what we've seen as being successful. 8 or 9 more wins would be significantly better than many of us thought possible. Yet, the question has to be asked if this success would equate to a full season next year. I'd have to initially lean toward us doing a little worse statistically just because of the duration of the regular season. Who knows, tho. It's been fun to watch.

Being that it is something that's hardly employed anymore and that it's being done well when done, it's a tough play for a fielder. It's not an easy hit to field when it's coming off the bat at 40mph, I think someone said. Keep doing it until the defenses respond. I love a good bunt!

Do any of the players we got in return figure in on being pieces to a contenting team, or are we still pretty far out on that? I like that we are moving players not likely to be around when we contend for players that seem pretty high on other clubs' prospect list. I agree with Drungo, I like this kind of trading a lot better than the giving of talent for a momentary role filler for a run as we did a few years ago.

...the reason I washed out after Little League... always out in front of a giant breaker. What might have been.

Back in the day....... Thurmon Munson. Today, Manny Machado. I'm still salty about having to part with him. Love to watch him play. Will not enjoy watching him play us.

I think that's what most people would expect. We have some attractive players and if they bring the return ME and his staff thinks helps in the long run, the deal gets done. From the beginning, the two players at the top of that list seem obvious in Cobb and Givens... but it will be interesting to see about some others. Still, it could be a slow trade season overall with the lack of real auditioning that a shortened season dictates.

I completely agree with this. We've had some bad road with getting return on investment when we knew we were done over the past few years. We've had injuries at inopportune times, veteran players playing from the grave as opposed to up a tree at the trade deadline, and an ownership/ management that was reticent to consider players like Givens for trade after a quick start when his useful life with this club was still two or more years on; and where acting quickly on a hot commodity like him 3-4 years ago might have netted some decent prospects. Hindsight is always clearer than in the moment, of course, but regardless of who was in charge, someone should have seen players like Givens clicking at a time when the whole organization was trending down hard as a piece to trade quickly to gain desirable prospects. Are there any guys like that now? This season is too short with too small a work sample for a name to get hot to benefit from a big trade. I don't see anything but salary dumps and maybe getting lucky on a deep player in return. Not real likely tho, imo.

Howard Stern used to say that his first wife suffered from Condamdisplasia of the Knee... prevented her from kneeling, lol. I wonder if this is a similar injury

From the look of him, his muscle memory seems to respond well to repetitive activities with weights, yet it doesn't seem to translate with a bat.

Luckily, Chris Davis will be taking on the Terry Crowley role... That should get us back on track.

Thanks for the update. I've been wondering about his progress. I'm glad to know he has people who are with him and care about him during this. Cancer is scary... as most of us know.

Does he employ his mastery of colorful language? I'm just imagining how play calling and color work would go with him f-bombing this and that with the s-word and other traditional favorites judiciously peppered in. LOL

Would love to hear him in the booth! Especially now! Met him and got an autograph at a YMCA / little league event when I was a kid. He was my favorite Oriole, so it was very exciting.

...I did catch myself having to bite my lip and just let it roll, but with Nunoz not scooping that ball and letting the winning run score on that bad throw, it made me wonder why Davis hadn't spelled him to start that inning. That was the top of the 8th, I think. Maybe 7th. Davis is a plus fielder and should be utilized in those situations, but why a double negative hitter is pinching is beyond me.

Some kind of double fake, right. Hilarious. "Muhahahahaha! They'll be rattled by our curious behavior! We've got them now!" They pinched the worst hitter on the team. Smack in the face of reason. ...but he has been making good contact. ...when he's not striking out. Wonderful logic.

I don't think it is because he gets as much or more attention than a club who's actually playing pretty good right now. I guess what I'm trying to convey, maybe a bit too emphatically is that he is a distraction - and not in a good way to a young club. It's why I've been in favor form the the beginning and despite the cost to release him. There's not another team he'd have been in the line-up of over the past two years. He's been a space filler in the line up and a side show attraction to sports writers. .136??? Enough is enough already... for him and the team.

A couple of years ago there might have been some hope for him to recover. I think he's proven now that isn't going to happen. So having a couple players who would benefit from the playing time in there instead of him is what this club should be doing. As Davis is not part of future, the club needs to develop their identity without the "traveling circus" aspect that Davis' presence will continue to provide with this team. Time to completely part with the past.

Yeah, I would think we wouldn't be trading to improve to win in the Playoffs, but rather to improve over the next couple of seasons. If they trade guys like Santander, Nunez, and Iglesias, that gives us the info that the brass doesn't think the team is to the point in the rebuild of being a contender. I think they are definitely interested in offloading Cobb and Givens just for money saving purposes, but whether they listen to other teams about some of these guys - who may be playing in a tree - will determine, potentially, how high they are or aren't on some of those guys. But your point is well taken, this might not be the year to gauge anything as some teams may have simply written off this whole thingas an exhibition and not worthy of investing or divesting any talent with such a short work sample. I mean, really, there are many guys who have a hot April and by July are riding the pine, so who knows.

hahaha, I just asked basically the same question over in the other thread. How many of the guys unlike Cobb or Givens or the others you mention, get traded will be telling, I think. If nothing happens other than Cobb and Givens, we'll have to wait and see whether your contention that this is real is really real. TBD... Right?

I like how this thread is developing. I like the enthusiasm of the OP, but I'm still a little dubious on how good this team really is. But there are definitely players who are playing well, maybe better than they ever have. Which begs the question, do we hang on and chalk it up to the rebuild is working OR do they offload some of the guys who are doing well to get a better return (or any return at all) than we otherwise might have? I think that will be telling about what Elias and the rest really think of these guys. Certainly Cobb is a different case merely for payroll savings, but some of the other guys, Santander, Nunez, Iglesias... do we stand pat hoping (thinking/knowing) the rebuild is becoming fruitful or do we deal if offered? To me, that's the question. Chasing a Playoff spot would be really fun and these guys are pretty entertaining to watch, but if it's a mirage that could be a big setback. How the team proceeds to the trade deadline will be telling.