7Mo

I agree that it should be decent with potential to be a .500 rotation. With pitchers, progress is rarely straight line. Not long ago, Baumann is someone most would have listed in that top 5. If the O's sign a FA who brings some experience and stability, a step or 2 or 3 above Matt Harvey, then I'd feel a lot better about .500.

For the rotation, I'm going to speculate that Grayson and DL aren't up until mid-year next year. To start the season, You'd have Means, Bradish and Kevin Smith as you say. Tyler Wells has earned a shot but I'd guess they want him to start in AAA for a few months. 1-2 innings out of the pen aren't the same as starting. I don't think Matt Harvey or Lopez will be back. You'd have Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Zimmerman and Alex Wells. I think we sign a FA that's an upgrade over Harvey but not a big money FA. That gives you 9 guys to fill 5 spots. But does that look like a .500 rotation?

I don't know enough about Ford to say for sure. I think Cowser is safer...higher floor so to speak. More of a track record. I think Elias is still in a bit of a "safe" mode this high in the draft. Just my thoughts.

And more walks than K's is impressive.

Assuming Davis and Leiter are gone, my weird feeling is Colton Cowser. Maybe Watson, but I think Cowser will be the pick.

Exactly right. But we don't know what kind of terms Means would or wouldn't accept in an extension. And there's no reason Elias can't be working both ideas simultaneously. I'm sure Means is available....but with a huge price tag. And Elias has a pretty good idea what extension dollar figure would make him more valuable going forward.

Exactly and this upcoming trade deadline might bring back another 1-2 SS possibles.

Not sure if you read the Sun article but it aligns almost perfectly with what you said. Henderson even spoke about this being a learning experience, as you said. Tom Eller, while being vague, talked about him making swing adjustments and him getting closer everyday. As you very well know, even at his young age, swing adjustments take time. To this point, his attitude has been great so hopefully the adjustments take hold soon.

There's a good article in the Sun today talking about him making adjustments and improving his batting practice daily sessions. He'll start to break out. But it's a process. This is a good example of why you don't bring someone to MLB "to learn". There's a ton of adjustments that need to be made at every level.

Let me clarify. "I believe Means will not be traded at this deadline..." The Snell trade was in December, not at the deadline. Obviously if someone else offers enough, Means could be dealt at any time. I just think the combo of him coming off the IL with limited starts before the deadline plus all teams being leery of spin rates and sticky stuff, that just makes me believe he doesn't go this July.

Although I believe Means will not be traded, the above references the Blake Snell trade. That brought back: Luis Patina, Padres #3 and MLB #23 overall plus Cole Wilcox, Padres #7 "considered to have some of the best stuff in the 2020 draft" Blake Hunt, Padres #14 and Francisco Mejia, Padres #15 Patina was close to the majors, having pitched some for TB this year. Obviously the Rays had their own valuations on the return guys so MLB values don't necessarily define what they felt they got back. Would you take a comparable return for Means? https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-traded-to-padres

But power is the name of the game these days. Henry Davis could be a very, very good pick.

He's a competitor. He's not going thru the motions.

I can say that I've read articles saying the O's felt good that he had fixed a lot of the swing and miss in 2020. Yes, I understand SSS. And I understand lesser comp in the early season. But I also understand the O's had the iceberg of information where folks "not in the industry" didn't. The primary argument seems to be "well, he was mocked at 13" and he was. And the MLB draft is notorious for misses. All of us agree on that. So why the reverence for where Mayo or Callis or Law mocked a guy? We have a first round pick (Tate) and we have productive players, Means, Mullins, Mancini who were drafted below that. Just let the guy play for 2 years before you tear him and Elias to shreds. If he and Mayo and Baumler suck in 2023, I'll send you your favorite bottle of wine or steak or whatever. But not both....

Yes he could, as could Austin Martin, or Mark Appel or any number of guys. You've suggested Elias didn't do his due diligence with Kjerstad which is not correct. You've posted that Kjerstad may not have the interest in playing which is false. I don't really understand your enthusiasm for tearing down the pick from every angle before the guy takes the field. I've never been more anxious for a player to excel than for Kjerstad just because of the constant criticism of the pick. It seems you'd rather the pick be a fail. That confuses me.

I think what Elias and the O's are doing is trying to develop anyone and everyone and increase their value. That's pretty simple logic. Using Kremer as an example, I'd guess they hoped for more from him to date. But you don't punt on the guy. You keep trying to develop him and increase his value, whether that ends up being with the O's or as a trade chip. Some pitchers take a while. It's not "an O's thing". It's everywhere in baseball. So, I think all of those guys will get chances because it's the right thing to do for the organization. Develop anyone and everyone you can, whether they stay with the O's or become a chip in a trade. I tend to think Means will be traded as well. But as with everyone, it depends on who and when someone offers enough. Someone will in time. Just like with Mancini and Mullins and others.

They brought in Matt Harvey and King Felix. I didn't mean big money. Hopefully they'll shop at a little higher price point this winter but it's got to be tough to entice a better pitcher to sign with the O's for 2022. That FA pitcher knows that not only are you going to face the AL East, but you're not going to win and the defense will be sub-par until minor league promotions which are more likely 2023 for Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Hernaiz, and others. So, yes, 1-2-3 FA signs between starters and the pen. Hopefully at a higher level than previous signs. But not signs that would be 1-2 or even a third starter type quality.

At the start of the season, possibles should be Means, Zimmerman, FA, Kremer, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Akin, Lowther, Alex Wells. Later in the season, it's more likely some combo of Means, FA, Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Kevin Smith and Zimmerman.

Or it's a conspiracy perpetrated by the yankees and red sox. Likely why they're on the Sunday Night game every week.

COVID.

And as a Vandy commit, he could actually choose college. I don't think he ultimately would, but college with him would be a bigger factor than it typically is.

He was on short rest (4 days instead of the normal 6) but he's been inconsistent in the ways you describe often this year so I don't think the short rest means much. I've watched him a few times this year where he's sitting 93-94 with the fastball, giving up hits, and then flip a switch and jump to 96-97 for short spurts. It didn't look like he had a flip to switch last night. The inconsistency would concern me.

The most clear statement I've seen is below, but without a reason given. Here's what Keith Law says: 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The market for Rocker is weirdly specific — it’s Texas, Boston, KC and Washington, with the Mets a possibility, too. The Royals have also been heavy on House and are naturally linked to Jobe since he’s sort of local, although they haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since they took Ashe Russell in 2015.

It's not about him preferring to go to KC. It's about 6 teams not picking him when he's available.

Yes they will and that should not matter one little bit.