7Mo

Thanks but I was responding to Sports Guy who quoted a post from Sports Guy. I just enjoyed that part of it.

Were you responding to a poster you trust?

I love what I know about Watson, the bat speed, the athleticism, the speed. I just don't know what I don't know. They talk about him getting thicker and not having enough range to play short. Speculating. They talk about a long swing that will cause him problems against good breaking pitches. I don't think those things are big issues. He might become a dynamic second baseman. And I see no reason he can't create a shorter, more compact swing. For months, Lawlar was projected to Texas. He's practically in their back yard. Now Lawlar is projected all over the place. Why? Is it Texas sending false signals? Could very well be. I'm not sure but I know I'd be thrilled if we pick Lawlar or Watson at 5.

Here's more information with some good videos. https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/9/21551861/2021-mlb-draft-preview-khalil-watson

Just going by what I've read. I haven't seen enough to know. As you know, guys that speculate about the draft are all over the place with what a guy can and can't do. And as often as I've seen him listed at 5'9", this article says 5'11". Take a look at the video in this article and see if you like the bat speed. https://www.fayobserver.com/story/sports/high-school/baseball/2021/05/20/kahlil-watson-2021-mlb-draft-shortstop-wake-forest-high-school-nc/5143047001/

That's kinda tough to do given that all that's available on Watson are some brief videos and written blurbs. But from what I've read, the 5'9" Watson profiles more as a second baseman. Video's show excellent bat speed and athleticism and he will likely play short for a few years in MiLB to see how he develops. From draft comments, it also appears Watson is shooting up boards, either because he's still playing when other high schools aren't, or my speculation is he is more amenable to an underslot deal and therefore, he's rising on boards. Looks like there's a real chance he gets taken at 2. I've read that Elias has seen Watson a lot recently. As to guys in our system, Gunnar is clearly the best prospect considering both offensive and defensive ceilings and he should have a good chance to stay at short. Here's a compilation of draft projections from Trade Rumors: 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter. “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes. 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall, 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks. 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City. “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties. Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.

I'm happy to admit that I'm just being hopeful here and speculating, but if your goal is to take someone like Watson or Rocker or House at 5, and to be able to sign them for a small discount, wouldn't it be helpful for agents to be of the belief that the O's were going to take Cowser or someone in that ranking? The slot values drop by about $400,000 per pick. If Watson, Rocker and House are still on the board at 5, 1 or more is going to drop by 2 or more picks which = $800,000+ If the O's get one of those 3 for $600,000 to $800,000 underslot, I'd feel pretty good about it.

Ok good. I was afraid I was overlooking something. How would you compare him to brother Josh?

Very good post. I agree with all of this. I'm not sure what the measuring criteria is but I would guess they're measuring swing decisions, barrel rates, hard hit percentages, etc more so than anything else for hitters. They are clearly aware when a guy has holes in his swing or is not reading pitches and making good swing decisions. Those are things that can be worked on and improved.

?? He played the '20 season at Tech and the '21 season. Next year he will play his third season before the '22 draft.

First the pandemic, now this playoff conspiracy. And to top it off, just imagine where this rebuild could be with a healthy Chris Davis producing like ownership knows he can.

I really like the swing and approach from Jones. I'm hoping he can be a solid contributor as an outfielder. Also hoping Leyba gets a lengthy opportunity with the O's.

Yet another conspiracy to prevent Elias from developing players.

They may not. My information is about 8-9 years old but that was the MLB speech at that time.

Agree as to all of that. Good post. I'm shocked they were able to deal Longoria though.

Seems possible. Hope so.

Heck of a game to watch. Did you watch Will Bednar chew up texas?

Good post but let me argue with you about one point. When you say the O's are unlikely to sign even their stars to contracts of 4-5 years or longer, that makes sense. We talk so much about the Rays on this board. That's their model and they execute it very, very well. But I think we need to remember that that's not the background Elias came through. The Cards have changed their operations significantly since Elias was there but when he was, they did lock up guys. The Astros have tried to keep the majority of their core. And notwithstanding the doubts of many about whether the brothers will spend money, the O's will clearly have money available if they choose to lock guys up. I would guess the O's eventually wind up some kind of hybrid of all of those. The "pipeline of talent" is something we have heard enough that I think Elias will always churn the roster, and deal most before any kind of long term contract. But I think there may be exceptions. Probably not many. But remember, when you're trading a talent, Means as an example, the return should help quickly. When the Rays traded Blake Snell to the Padres, they got 4 players back headlined by Luis Patina who has and will pitch at the MLB level this year. Of the other 3, one was Cole Wilcox who was a third round pick but mocked as a first rounder for a while. To this point, Elias hasn't traded a high value guy. You're just not going to get a big return for Bundy, Iglesias, Cobb, etc. But when those trades become Mullins or Means, it's reasonable to expect a whole lot more coming back, and more major league ready guys as well. Just my thoughts.

A typical D1 guy will wind up with a scholarship that is one third of cost of attendance. A highly regarded pitcher would be more like 40% or 50%. That's one of the reasons academics are stressed because coaches are looking for a guy who can combine his athletic scholarship with academic money. And there are differences by state. Georgia has a program available to their high school graduates that pays some or all of their first year of a Georgia college. Lottery money is available in some states to pay for college costs. Louisiana has a good program I believe. Vandy has private funds they can access for guys they want. To corn's point above, MLB teams will provide funds for college as a part of a standard contract. They look at the cost of attendance at the school a kid is committed to and agree to provide that amount. As the years have gone by, there have been limitations on when that money is available and when it must be used, or lost. As you would guess, when a high school kid is weighing options between signing to play pro baseball or go to college, the college funds offered by the standard contract seem far away and less significant because most guys in that situation firmly believe they'll make it in MLB and play for a dozen years.

That makes sense. I think the primary thought is taking care of his arm but that could be done the way you describe it using him as a reliever that first year. I never thought he would go back out in the 8th last night but he did. He's a competitor.

Wildcard, I love your enthusiasm and optimism. You're sold on the idea that the 2022 team will be competitive. I'm not going to argue with you but I think if you start looking at the minor league system a little closer, that points to 2023. The bulk of guys who should make a difference are farther away than 2022. You really like Mancini. I don't blame you. But this team is being stripped to the bare bones and rebuilt. Mancini should bring back 1-2 good pieces to help long term. To me, "long term" means 2023 or 2024, not 2026. Your group of guys, DL Hall, Rodriguez, Adley, will be here during the 2022 season, but not likely to start the year. And that's just not enough. We need a dozen more. We need solid contributions from some of Bradish, Jones, Rizer, Grenier, Smith, Baumann, Vavra, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin, and several others to make a difference. And not all of those guys are going to be stars, or even above average contributors. And there need to be 3-4 significant FA signings. If you expect those 3-4 significant FA signings this winter, I think you're going to be disappointed. I just don't think the "goal" is 2022. Nothing about what I've seen says "Elias has to make significant improvements in the major league product in 2022." I know you believe that's true, but I'm sorry to disagree with you. I believe Santander will be back, but not to make the 2022 team stronger. I think the decision about Santander is simply does Elias, et al believe he will have more value in 2022 than he does at trade deadline 2021 and I think the logical bet is yes, keep him and hope he builds value. But I believe Fry, Steward, Galvis, Sulser, Mancini, and a few others will be traded in July if a reasonable offer is made. "Reasonable" meaning how the O's value them internally. And I think there's a good chance all are gone. That won't be based on what the 2022 team looks like. It will be based on whether they are getting reasonable value back with an eye toward 2023. Just my opinion. I understand you disagree and that's just fine.

I haven't seen any speculation like that. I think that's limited to a standout closer these days if at all.

Agree on all points. There is so much we will never know. Elias has a chance to find out so much detail about a kid's work ethic, habits, etc that the public won't know. I think Elias showed a heckuva lot of conviction with the Kjerstad pick. I don't think that will be an issue. And just to be clear, I have no criticism of the Kjerstad pick at all.

Not unlike what I just read in a Rays article: Hill was one of several pitchers Tampa Bay added this winter in the wake of another ruthless decision — declining a $15 million option on beloved pitcher Charlie Morton. Tampa Bay spread Morton’s money across a collection of arms: Hill ($1.5 million), Archer ($6.5 million) Michael Wacha ($3 million), Collin McHugh ($1.8 million), Chaz Roe ($1.15 million) and Oliver Drake ($775,000). The idea was to reduce the risk in spending. Wacha (4.54 ERA) has been mediocre. Archer, Drake and Roe are all on the 60-day injured list. But McHugh, at 34, is striking out batters at the best rate of his career as a multi-inning reliever, while Hill entered this week with a 3.64 ERA in 71.2 innings, more than comparable to the 4.03 ERA in 73 2/3 innings Morton has posted with Atlanta.

Good post. So, of the 6 most likely to be available, Lawlar might price himself out of reasonable range, Watson is 5'9" and likely a second baseman, Davis has the swing issues you outlined, House probably needs some swing adjustments and likely moves to third, and Jobe sounds outstanding but remains a HS RHP. I left out Rocker. I understand the uproar coming from this board if they wind up picking Frelick, Cowser or Bachman, but it might not be the worst idea this year. Of course, Elias and company have infinitely more information available to them than I do so who knows.