Mock the Mocks - A Summary of 11 Mock Drafts

[hoosiers]

See below an effort to compile a bunch of 2011 MLB Mock drafts from various bing searches and other known sites. Please pardon the posting format as it is the best I can do to put all sites in an easy to see presentation. The result is below:

Baseball America - May 13 - Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, JedBrad, Gray, Meyer, Bundy, Bauer, Starling, Jungman

MLB.com - May 20 - Cole, Bundy, Hultzen, Rendon, Lindor, Bradley, Bauer, JedBrad, Starling, Gray

myMLBDraft - May 16 - Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy, JedBrad, Meyer, Bauer, Lindor, Starling, Gray

mlbbonusbaby - April 21 - Rendon, Cole, Gray, Bauer, JedBrad, Bundy, Purke, Guerrreri, Bradley, Starling

Law/ESPN - May 18 - Hultzen, Rendon, Bauer, Bundy, Cole

Yahoo/Steingall - May 18 - Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Starling, Lindor, Bauer, Gray, JedBrad, Bundy, Springer

Bleacher Report - Reuter - May 18 - Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy, Starling, Gray, Bauer, Lindor, Jungman, JedBrad

MinorLeagueBall - Sickels - May 9 - Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, JedBrad, Starling, Bauer, Barnes, Gray, Lindor, Springer

Prospect Junkies - May 6 - Rendon, Cole, Gray, Bundy, Starling, Hultzen, Lindor, Jungman, Guerreri, Bauer

BallGameTalk - May 14 - Rendon, Cole, Bauer, Hultzen, Lindor, Bundy, Gray, Springer, Bradley, Guerreri

DiamondScape Scouting - May 19 - Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Gray, Bundy, Starling, Meyer, Jungman, JedBrad, Bauer

There are two basic pieces of summary information listed with each prospect below - the average draft position and the number of times in the top five. For guys finishing outside the top 10 (or top five for Law) I entered the number 11 as if they would be next. All sites received an equal weighting and I can not say I included or excluded sites based on reputation - though I suspect many here are familiar with a majority of them (BA, Law, Sickels, mlbbonusbaby, mlb.com, etc).

Rendon - 1.6 average draft position - 11 times in top 5

Cole - 1.6 - 11

Hultzen - 3.9 - 9

Bundy - 5.8 - 6

Bauer - 6.5 - 3

Gray - 6.8 - 4

Jed Bradley - 7.6 - 4

Starling - 7.6 - 4

Lindor - 8.3 - 3

So, there is a pretty good consensus, at this point, that Rendon, Cole and Hultzen are the top 3.

With the Os picking fourth, based on the above, after the top 3, the consensus is led by the trio of Bundy, Bauer and Gray with Bundy having a slight lead. As I've posted previously, I believe Joe Jordan will have a tough time passing on Bundy based on velo, stuff, projectability and, not least, familiarity with the prospect/family. Gray is reported to have top stuff, but Joe Jordan does not draft many pitchers of that size. A May 18 report actually listed Bauer ahead of Bundy among RHPs in the draft noting Bauer's velo, variety of pitches and ability to work deep into games with electric stuff. These three are the only ones to jump into the top three - Bundy once with Bauer and Gray twice each to push either Rendon or Hultzen out.

A tad lower in the consensus is Jed Bradley and Bubba Starling.

I expect there will be some additional player movement as the draft approaches, but the consensus guys at the top of the draft seem to be falling in line. There are some scenarios and comments where the Os could land Rendon or Hultzen, but the most likely group the Os will select from appears to include five names - Bundy, Bauer, Gray, JedBrad and Starling. IMO, there would be a lot to like about any of these five.

[WV O's]

The closer we get to the draft, the more it seems that we are out of the running for the "top three" prospects. Is this becoming true?

[Stotle]

The closer we get to the draft' date=' the more it seems that we are out of the running for the "top three" prospects. Is this becoming true?[/quote']

Guaranteed there are not three consensus top prospects among the 30 ML orgs. Keep in mind that folks like Law and Callis are trying to figure out who PIT/SEA/ARI are going to select -- they don't really care who the other orgs "think" are the top 3 players. Also, slot selection doesn't equate to talent ranking -- particularly with this draft class.

[atlantaoriole]

In your honest opinion Stotle would you be shocked if the Orioles selected Bubba Starling? Who would be your pick if Rendon, Cole, and Hultzen are all off?

[Stotle]

In your honest opinion Stotle would you be shocked if the Orioles selected Bubba Starling? Who would be your pick if Rendon, Cole, and Hultzen are all off?

I'd prefer Starling or Gray but it's very close between Gray/Bradley/Jungmann/Bundy.

I would be shocked, yes, if BAL selected Starling, knowing his cost, their general preference for pitching and the presence of so many college talents.

[Hutman]

Stotle,

Why would Starling be so shocking if we are considering Bundy who will have similar bonus demands. If $$$ are a key driver then why would we be focusing on Gray/Jungmann/Bauer who will be closer to slot.

[Stotle]

Stotle,

Why would Starling be so shocking if we are considering Bundy who will have similar bonus demands. If $$$ are a key driver then why would we be focusing on Gray/Jungmann/Bauer who will be closer to slot.

I think Bundy's situation allows Baltimore to be a little more confident they would eventually get him signed. Also, as an organization that has stated a preference for arms, all things equal, I have a hard time believing they will pass on the opportunity to add a potential front-end guy given the arms available up top. I also think, all things equal, the preference would be for a college arm. But again, Bundy's situation may allow BAL to break away from their general preference. Jordan has already negotiated a deal with the Bundy family, and it would behoove all sides to have Dylan in the system if BAL selects him. I don't think it necessarily gets him at a discount, but it should soften the tone of negotiations.

[Big O]

The closer we get to the draft' date=' the more it seems that we are out of the running for the "top three" prospects. Is this becoming true?[/quote']

Really? I feel like the closer we get. The clearer it is that again we are in the perfect spot. There seem to be four top guys (in my mind) in this draft and I would not be surprised if we get one of the "top three" guys your speaking of.

[section18]

I think Rendon, Bundy and Cole will be there when we pick at #4. If this happens it will be a difficult choice for the Orioles as these 3 could all be #1's. What do we do? I would take Rendon, Bundy or Cole in that order of preference.

Is there anyone out there with a crystal ball that can predict who will be the best of these three? We need to hit a home run with this pick.

[RVAbird]

I think Rendon, Bundy and Cole will be there when we pick at #4. If this happens it will be a difficult choice for the Orioles as these 3 could all be #1's. What do we do? I would take Rendon, Bundy or Cole in that order of preference.

Is there anyone out there with a crystal ball that can predict who will be the best of these three? We need to hit a home run with this pick.

Wow! Who do you see going 1-3.

I would be shocked if all three were available at 1:4.

[section18]

I think the first three in order will be Hultzen, Starling and Jungman.

[RVAbird]

I think the first three in order will be Hultzen, Starling and Jungman.

I doubt it, but somehow it's not the craziest thing I've ever heard. It starts with Hultzen going first to PIT, which is about 50-50 right now IMO. The big question is whether Seattle would pass on Rendon and go with Starling. They are rumored to be looking at the top bats, and Starling is a top bat, but it just seems unlikely to me that they could pass up a polished 5-tool talent like Rendon.

IF Hultzen and Starling went off the board 1-2, ARI will probably decide between Cole, Bauer and Jungmann. Jungmann and Bauer are probably slightly easier signs.

Each pick on its own is within the realm of possibility, but a lot of things have to go a certain way for the board to shake out like that.

[GoldGlove21]

I think Hultzen does not slip past the Diamondbacks at #3. Seattle probably takes Rendon at #2, but I suppose they could take Starling with that selection. The Pirates take Cole, Bundy or Hultzen with the #1 selection in all probability. If the Pirates did decide to select Hultzen then I could see a scenario where Seattle still picks its bat and the Diamondbacks take Cole.

No matter how many times I play the draft out in my mind I think the Orioles will end up deciding between Bundy and Bauer. I think the Orioles will be in great shape no matter what they do at #4. One thing that I am going to keep an eye on is what the Diamondbacks do at #3 and #7. If the Diamondbacks can add Hultzen/Cole at #3 and a guy like Starling at #7 then that would be an awesome first round for them.

I am also interested in how much the Rays will spend this year on the draft. If you want the BPA then they could end up with a very large draft expendature.

[section18]

I know Rendon has not been playing 3B this year due to his shoulder problem. Once he is over this problem is he our future 3B if we draft him? Is his defense good enough to be an everyday mlb 3B? If we pick Rendon and with Machado already in our future plans at SS it would appear to be a quality left side of the infield for us if it happens.

[RVAbird]

I know Rendon has not been playing 3B this year due to his shoulder problem. Once he is over this problem is he our future 3B if we draft him? Is his defense good enough to be an everyday mlb 3B? If we pick Rendon and with Machado already in our future plans at SS it would appear to be a quality left side of the infield for us if it happens.

He is a plus defender with a plus arm. As long as his shoulder heals up well, he could vie for gold gloves down the road. Very smooth.