Rate the Guthrie trade (Poll)

[ce4v20]

a 4.33 ERA won't win you many games either

The reason is run support. I doubt Hammel will have any control over that.

[Robbie D]

The more I think about it the more I like it. Guthrie goes some where we he can maybe have success, we get a replacement in hammel and a back end bull pen guy. Ill take anyone over Gregg at this point.

[mweb]

Well, it could save them money. If they are able to move either along with their salary at any point before it's all paid, it's a savings. Moving Guthrie had he won his arbitration case, would have not been doable. Likely not doable had we won arbitration unless we paid some of it to move him.

Yeah, but that same logic applies to trading Guthrie for cheap players, and it's highly doubtful that he would have won his arb hearing, which is why he settled today for much less.

And hey, I wish they were saving some money here. But Birds of B'more is simply wrong when he says they're saving money here.

[Oriology]

The problem is that the rest of your roster isn't static, so if your incremental improve from 70-85 wins takes you three seasons, you've effectively wasted the cheap years of the young talent you had in place at 70-wins. Perhaps a larger concern, the players that are giving you your marginal improvement, generally, are not going to be the higher caliber players -- which is the group that generally gives you a little more certainty in production. So you are just as likely to have made no progress, or moved backwards, on your 25-man.

You don't need to burn things to the ground, but you do need to make tough decisions in shaping your roster. Simply reshuffling deck chairs while you work to improve your operational effectiveness in scouting, development and analysis is nothing more than a waste of dollars. Why do you need to bring on Lindstrom? In addition to that, we hear Baltimore is still looking to add more bullpen help? It all potentially points to questionable decision making and prioritizing -- which is at the heart of Law's critiques, which have been hammered around here.

...

But the real culprit there would be the previous administration, with the "botch" being not moving Guthrie at a time when his value was higher. I think there was likely to be anger, regardless of the move, because whatever reasonable outcome was reached, it's likely less valuable than what Baltimore could have had a year ago, or two years ago.

It's a larger picture issue -- an organization that continues to show signs of not fully understanding itself, it's prospects for competition, it's current talent level in the Major and Minors -- essentially, everything.

...

Making those decisions now, instead of next summer, gives you 1.5 years to develop long term solutions and to implement money saved.

Truth bombs!

Anyway, this trade isn't totally reprehensible, but it seems to lack the clear vision that I would hope the club would have at this point in their march of futility. Maybe there is a bigger plan behind it, but it seems to me that a team like the O's should be looking to shed payroll with deals like this (trading established players) rather than spinning their wheels. Even if the prospect haul would've been modest at best, $8 million is not something to sneeze at. D+/D for me.

[Birds of B'more]

No, it doesn't save them money. 8.35M for these two vs 8.2 for Guthrie. And I don't see how potentially paying Lindstrom 4M next year and whatever Hammel would get in arbitration can really be spinned into saving them money. Sure, if they play well this year, then they'll be good values next year, but that remains to be seen and obviously you don't see that as being that likely.

More recent sample you mean. You act like 2009 and 2010 are so long ago. Even this past year, Guthrie wasn't significantly more effective than Hammel.

Guthrie was asking for over $10 million in arbitration. I assume the $8.2 you cite is what he agreed to w/COL. If he was going to take that from the Orioles, I'm sure they would have gotten there by now. I agree with the theory that the Orioles didn't see themselves winning in arbitration, which is part of what led to this.

Unless he pitches well enough this season that he ends up being the hands-down closer going into next season, then Lindstrom won't be a huge saving in 2013. But even if he's a decent set-up man then $4 mil for just 2013 is pricey but not terrible, given that it would cost the O's more than a 1-year deal to sign someone else similar (see Gonzales, Gregg, et al).

[weams]

"I'm excited to get to know and work with Matt Wieters"

[Birds of B'more]

Yeah, but that same logic applies to trading Guthrie for cheap players, and it's highly doubtful that he would have won his arb hearing, which is why he settled today for much less.

And hey, I wish they were saving some money here. But Birds of B'more is simply wrong when he says they're saving money here.

How do you know that? That's not what Guthrie's agent said. I can see why it would be in his best interest to settle with his new team before hitting arbitration, even if he thinks he may have won. It's certainly a good way to start negotiations on a possible extension.

[OFFNY]

..

Others have said (which I agree with), that a player like Guthrie would be the worst kind of player to trade, because he is obviously a better pitcher than his career win-loss record indicates ...... but, because of the fact that he does have such a bad W-L record, his trade value on the market would be played down (which it seems to have happened here). At best, I see this as a lateral step, but I hope I'm wrong (like I usually am). A modestly encouraging thing about Lindstrom is that last year he pitched 54 innings, had a 3.00 ERA, had an excellent walks-to-innings pitched ratio (14 walks in 54 innings, or about 1 walk every 4 innings), and a decent strikeout-to-innings pitched ration (36 strikeouts in 54 innings, or about 6 strikeouts every 9 innings). In viirtually the same amount of innings pitched the previous year in 2010, his ERA was 4.39, so he took a big chunk off of his ERA between 2010 and 2011 (more than a run).

[mweb]

Guthrie was asking for over $10 million in arbitration. I assume the $8.2 you cite is what he agreed to w/COL. If he was going to take that from the Orioles' date=' I'm sure they would have gotten there by now. I agree with the theory that the Orioles didn't see themselves winning in arbitration, which is part of what led to this.

Unless he pitches well enough this season that he ends up being the hands-down closer going into next season, then Lindstrom won't be a huge saving in 2013. But even if he's a decent set-up man then $4 mil for just 2013 is pricey but not terrible, given that it would cost the O's more than a 1-year deal to sign someone else similar (see Gonzales, Gregg, et al).[/quote']

So Guthrie was likely to win arb, but he accepted 2 million less in a settlement. That doesn't make any sense. Spin it however you like, but the deal wasn't about saving money. If they were trying to save money, why take back about the same salary you're shipping out? They could have made a deal with much less money coming back.

[mweb]

How do you know that? That's not what Guthrie's agent said. I can see why it would be in his best interest to settle with his new team before hitting arbitration' date=' even if he thinks he may have won. It's certainly a good way to start negotiations on a possible extension.[/quote']

Of course his agent said that. There have been multiple posts on this forum recently that show why he wasn't likely to win his hearing. Settling and losing were the most likely outcomes.

And if he and his agent were confident about winning, then making less money now isn't a good way to start negotiations. If they were confident, they would have gone through with the hearing, or at least gotten a better settlement.

[Birds of B'more]

So Guthrie was likely to win arb, but he accepted 2 million less in a settlement. That doesn't make any sense. Spin it however you like, but the deal wasn't about saving money. If they were trying to save money, why take back about the same salary you're shipping out? They could have made a deal with much less money coming back.

I don't know that he would have won any more than you know he would have lost. I'll admit that if you will. Again, potentially leaving $2 million on the table could pay off for him if he gets an extension from Colorado.

[weams]

I think this is one of the reasons he was traded and I like the trade.

"Jeremy is at a certain point in his career where it's time to become a winning pitcher,'' Connor told Dan Connolly of The Sun. "Pitchers really can't control wins so much, but I've been on some teams that were pretty bad that had a couple of guys that won more than they lost. He's pitched in the big leagues, he's been in the rotation three or four full years ? it's time for him to be the guy and set an example."

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-06-11/sports/bs-sp-schmuck-column-0612-20110611_1_jeremy-guthrie-rotation-three-or-four-orioles

And we thought it was Matusz who badmouthed Palmer's stats. Dibble always implied that it was a veteran.

Re: Lindstrom " Last year, he pitched to a road ERA of 1.71 with the Rockies and had an opponent batting average against of just .232 when pitching with runners in scoring position"

[weams]

I don't know that he would have won any more than you know he would have lost. I'll admit that if you will. Again' date=' potentially leaving $2 million on the table could pay off for him if he gets an extension from Colorado.[/quote']

Guthrie is not getting an extension. He wants to experience the business end of baseball now. He was looking forward to the arbitration hearing process

[mweb]

I don't know that he would have won any more than you know he would have lost. I'll admit that if you will. Again' date=' potentially leaving $2 million on the table could pay off for him if he gets an extension from Colorado.[/quote']

Of course I don't know. But I am confident that him settling and him losing were more likely than him winning, and this settlement shows that. And no, your theory doesn't make sense about purposefully leaving 2 million on the table for some sort of negotiating benefit of an extension that we don't even know is or will be worked on.

I'm just assuming that you didn't know what Hammel and Lindstrom were being paid when you made your saving money comment, and now don't want to admit it. If not, well your argument doesn't hold water imo.

[Birds of B'more]

Guthrie is not getting an extension. He wants to experience the business end of baseball now. He was looking forward to the arbitration hearing process

Do we know Colorado isn't interested in extending him? Seems like outside of Pomeranz, who they got in trade, they've bombed pretty bad when it comes to drafting/developing pitchers.