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To Bunt or not to Bunt

Catch 8

By Catch 8
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Catch 8 Major Leaguer

Catch 8

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Yesterday's game was a thriller, no doubt!  And even though we won, I like to look at things as a process and not always as a result.  That said, let's consider the two options Buck had in the bottom of the 12th:

1) Have Jones swing away.  Jones is a good run-producer and a smart player, we can assume he tried to drive the ball early in the count and then unsucessfully hit the ball to the right side when behind in the count.  Jones Struck out.  Mancini bounced out.  And Trumbo tagged a change-up and picked up his teammates and possibly manager.  Buck's supposed logic: we have three run-producers and we will give them three chances to knock the run in from second.

2) Jones, who is an excellent bunter, bunts the runner over to third.  The rookie Mancini and two of this generation's most prolific strikeout hitters follow in succession.  If I am the Jay's, I put Mancini on.  The next question is what to do with Trumbo: you can try to strike out Trumbo, or you can also walk him and create an even more interesting situation with Davis.  I'd place Davis' odds of striking out at very high.  But you also have a 22-year-old pitcher who now has no bases open.  Again, a Davis home run = walk = a flyball = pretty much anything that isnt a double-play, popup or strikeout.  Suppose Davis strikes out -- this is a good position for the Blue Jays to be in, even though Castillo is absolutely raking.  You have put the percentages in your favor to escape the inning.

I feel option 2 puts a lot more pressure on the defense.  In fact, if we went with option two, and not considering egos, I would lift Davis since we have a huge bench for a contact hitter, since Davis hitting a home run has the same effect that Seth Smith getting the run in somehow with contact has.  I would even have considered lifting Trumbo for a contact hitter, as long as we had another for Davis.  But this is OOTP baseball vs. The Show.  Buck has to consider the other elements, many of which we are not privy to.

We won, but these are the things I have a TON of fun discussion and chewing on.  Thoughts?

One more thing to mention: I am not a fan of having Jones swing away at the first pitch and then try to bunt the second, simply because if you want the bunt laid down, it is a lot easier to achieve in two opportunities than one.  Jones will almost always get a bunt down given two pitches.  And if that player isn't a good bunter (90% of the league), I do not consider a bunt as strongly, if at all.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I am glad Trumbo was in the game in the 13th. And it's not always a process. I did not see that bunt attempt coming. Perhaps that was all it was. A surprise thing.  I would have preferred to not make those two "errors" that let the Canadians have their fourth run also.

I get your point. But baseball is a funny game. 

Some could argue that Buck's mistake last year in the playoffs was NOT starting Ubaldo. 

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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The decision I had issues with was leaving Rickard in the game for two ABs (9th and 11th) vs RH pitchers.  Whatever you think of Rickard, he shouldn't be batting vs righties with the game on the line.  He's running a 48 wRC+ against RH pitchers.  For those not familar with the stat, it tries to capture everything a hitter does at the plate.  100 is league average, 48 is 48% of league average, which is terrible. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

The decision I had issues with was leaving Rickard in the game for two ABs (9th and 11th) vs RH pitchers.  Whatever you think of Rickard, he shouldn't be batting vs righties with the game on the line.  He's running a 48 wRC+ against RH pitchers.  For those not familar with the stat, it tries to capture everything a hitter does at the plate.  100 is league average, 48 is 48% of league average, which is terrible. 

I hate that we lost Gentry. Hate it. I absolutely agree. 

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panick Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

panick

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I would have had Jones bunt, but I don't think Showalter likes players to sacrifice. I also don't think Jones wanted to bunt either. My impression of Jones is that he always wants to be the hero so he swings for the fences. As soon as he got in the batter's box I thought to myself that he would strike out swinging at 3 pitches. It's not the first he's done that when we needed a runner moved up a base.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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20 minutes ago, panick said:

I would have had Jones bunt, but I don't think Showalter likes players to sacrifice. I also don't think Jones wanted to bunt either. My impression of Jones is that he always wants to be the hero so he swings for the fences. As soon as he got in the batter's box I thought to myself that he would strike out swinging at 3 pitches. It's not the first he's done that when we needed a runner moved up a base.

Adam Jones has the best BA with runners in scoring position on the team. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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1 minute ago, weams said:

Adam Jones has the best BA with runners in scoring position on the team. 

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
RISP 83   123 109 48 37 7 0 4 41 1 0 8 22 .339 .385 .514 .899 56 6 2 1 3 1 2 .384 129 133
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thezeroes Major Leaguer Rising Star

thezeroes

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2 minutes ago, weams said:
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
RISP 83   123 109 48 37 7 0 4 41 1 0 8 22 .339 .385 .514 .899 56 6 2 1 3 1 2 .384 129 133

Kinda debunks the above theory of striking out with RISP

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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4 minutes ago, weams said:

Kinda

But heck, folks believe what they choose to. 

It's just confirmation bias, they have an opinion and then pay attention to the info that backs it up (Jones K with RISP) and forget/ignore things that conflict with their opinion.

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