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Rule 5 Target - Burch Smith - RHP

Luke-OH

By Luke-OH
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

It doesn't change your point, but I believe that the new Rule 5 dollar amounts are now $100K to draft a player and $50K to take a player back.  Seems to me that I read that somewhere.

Looks like you’re right.    Thanks for pointing it out.    That still isn’t much of a cost IMO.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/11/22/16691000/burch-smith-alec-mills-post-hype-pitchers-performed-in-the-fall

Smith got a write-up on John Sickels site this afternoon.  I'd forgotten he was in the Trea Turner-Wil Myers trade, which reminded me he was a prospect of some note coming up.

The picture there highlights the 80 hair Philly pegged.

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zjsmith AA

zjsmith

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Does anyone know if the Orioles will post which guys they place on the AAA roster and which ones on the AA before the rule 5 draft? Those it seems that know one of significance will be lost in the rule 5 there are some that will be taken in the minor league phase of the rule 5.

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Burch Smith will be 28 in April.   He missed 2015 and 2016 with TJ surgery.  He pitched 16.1 innings at AAA last year.  37 innings at A+ and 3 in a rookie league.   While he had a  1.65 ERA and a 0.796 WHIP in 3 starts at AAA, its clear why Tampa did not protect him.   He as barely pitched above A+ ball since his TJ surgery and at 28 many teams will pass on him.  

It would probably be hard for the O's to keep in on the 25 man roster all year.  He would probably have to go to the pen and with unknowns in the  rotation the pen spots probably get a lot on work next year.

First thing I’ll say is off course it’s subjective.

Second is I’m sorry, I was mistaken, I thought he pitched in AA not A+. I have edited the post.

Third, age is not important here, he’s not of prospect age. He has nothing to work on except improving his conditioning so that he can carry his stuff later in games. I think it’s reasonable to think that can improve as he gets further removed for surgery.

Fourth, the stats don’t matter much to me in this evaluation.  I just used the stats to figure out who I was going to watch video on.  But if you are looking at stats he also threw 20 innings in the AFL striking out 29.

Fifth, the big deal here is this guy has legit major league stuff. Starter stuff, if you watch him pitch I believe it will be obvious to you. I saw him throw face Uber prospect Acuna 6 times, he struck Acuna out 4 times (didn’t allow a hard hit ball), two of the times he struck Acuna out on three straight fastballs.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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24 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

First thing I’ll say is off course it’s subjective.

Second is I’m sorry, I was mistaken, I thought he pitched in AA not A+. I have edited the post.

Third, age is not important here, he’s not of prospect age. He has nothing to work on except improving his conditioning so that he can carry his stuff later in games. I think it’s reasonable to think that can improve as he gets further removed for surgery.

Fourth, the stats don’t matter much to me in this evaluation.  I just used the stats to figure out who I was going to watch video on.  But if you are looking at stats he also threw 20 innings in the AFL striking out 29.

Fifth, the big deal here is this guy has legit major league stuff. Starter stuff, if you watch him pitch I believe it will be obvious to you. I saw him throw face Uber prospect Acuna 6 times, he struck Acuna out 4 times (didn’t allow a hard hit ball), two of the times he struck Acuna out on three straight fastballs.

This is why you add so much to the discussion.   99% of us aren’t watching minor leaguers from other organizations (and in my case, wouldn’t know what to look for anyway).     Reading a stat sheet is useful, but not a substitute for actually watching a player perform.  

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This is why you add so much to the discussion.   99% of us aren’t watching minor leaguers from other organizations (and in my case, wouldn’t know what to look for anyway).     Reading a stat sheet is useful, but not a substitute for actually watching a player perform.  

Thank you, that’s what I’m trying to do.  

I’m just trying to watch a lot of baseball and continuously improve my ability to assess players. I’m learning all the time and I have a very long ways to go.  

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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Just listening to an Eric Longenhagen Podcast (fangraph's scouting guy), he said Burch was 93-97 in the Arizona fall league with his fastball, and also had a plus curveball, and a solid change-up.  So similar to what I saw but more velocity.  He said Smith while not really a prospect due to age and MLB experience is an MLB piece, at least in relief. 

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