How we got here: one fan's perspective

[spiritof66]

I wrote this yesterday (Saturday, May 5) after thinking about how the Orioles got into the mess they’re in and looking at some of the posts in the thread “Who’s most to blame for this mess?” Unlike the forthcoming piece from Tony, these thoughts reflect public information that I’ve seen over the last few years, my own inferences from that information, and a boatload of speculation.

In trying to understand the current plight of the Orioles, I think it’s important to bear in mind a few things about Peter Angelos that I've been saying for years and that, to the best of my memory, nobody has contradicted.  First, the man is all about ego, the power and wealth he has accumulated in his rise from humble origins, and his own intellectual superiority on matters that include running a baseball team. Second, Angelos’ only goal has been, and as far as I can tell remains, an Orioles World Series. During the current decade, that goal and his advanced age have pushed him to a short-term, immediate-gratification approach to the Orioles. Third, he believes, with some justification, that the rest of MLB is out to screw him and keep the Orioles from succeeding, and would like to see him removed from their club.

I think Angelos viewed the Toronto thing as running deeper than Duquette’s perceived perfidy. It was about a rival MLB team trying to take from him something the Orioles owned and had agreed to pay good money for: Dan Duquette's services and loyalty. And then hearing from the “gentlemen” in the MLB power structure that under their unwritten rules he was supposed to give up his property for nothing. Angelos had been resourceful in finding Dan Duquette and rescuing him from exile, and now the Jays wanted to ignore his legal rights and take that away from him. Angelos was determined that wasn’t going to happen. So it didn't.   

I'm not sure the Toronto thing doomed the relationship between Angelos and Duquette. But I believe the rift intensified because of a more meaningful gulf that could not be, and has not been, bridged, involving the future of the Orioles. I believe that by 2016, and maybe well before, Duquette recognized that the Orioles team that had broken the fourteen-year losing streak was stagnating. Its key players were in decline, were heading into their decline phase or likely would soon depart for free agency, and with only a few minor leaguers ready to contribute, the team would have to trade some veterans and sign some complementary free agents in order to get younger, a process that would be likely to weaken the team while its trade acquisitions and own minor league prospects matured.

Whatever you think about  Dan Duquette, his personality, his interest in the Toronto job or his trades, the guy does know something about the basics of putting together a team – Toronto certainly thought so -- including the likely timing of the erosion of players' skills. It is impossible for me to believe that Duquette supported the Davis contract, or signing Trumbo after Davis had been signed, or retaining O’Day, Britton and others, or that he didn't advise Angelos to try to extend or trade Manny).  Duquette must have advised Angelos of the need to refresh the team’s personnel, and warned him of the perils of standing still while key parts of the team aged or departed.

By the 2017 trade deadline -- and, I would guess, well before then, Duquette could see that the Orioles no longer could compete against their younger and stronger division rivals. He must have pressed for trades of some of the team's veterans for prospects as one way to build strength for the future. It’s also clear what Angelos’ reaction was: the hell with Duquette. I gave the guy a chance when I hired him, he tried to leave, and now the ingrate wants to build a young team that may be able to compete in a few years, and may help him when he tries to leverage the Orioles’ success into another job in 2018. But it’s not going to give Peter Angelos that victory parade in Baltimore.

Angelos didn’t have to look far to find some veteran baseball guys in the organization who presented him with a different point of view: keep that 2014-16 team together, pick up a few established players to support them, bring Gausman and Bundy along, and keep vying for the post-season without interruption. There's still a chance to win with this group if we hold on to our core of sluggers -- Brady and Buck said so. (Why they said so remains unknown: did they really believe this team could remain in contention for a few more years without an overhaul, or were they just telling Angelos what they knew or sensed he wanted to hear?)

Last year, Angelos gave Duquette permission to explore deadline trades (I think it was to "entertain offers") of a few specified veterans. But I said at the time, and remain convinced, that it was a charade, that Angelos wasn't interested in obtaining prospects and never would have signed off on a trade for anyone who wasn't ready to step immediately and help the Orioles’ push for the post-season. What good would it do Peter Angelos to get a couple of kids who might help the team in a few years -- if they panned out and didn't get hurt? He wanted to see results right away. And nothing has changed, other than the signing of free agents to shore up the starting pitching over the next few years. No veterans have been traded, no prospects brought in other than the Rule 5 and other scrap-heap players. The Orioles have stayed the course.

I don't know what Peter Angelos's or physical  or mental condition is. I infer that one of two things is going on. He may still be calling the shots. If that's the case, he probably recognizes that his World Series dream, his hope of not being remembered in the annals of baseball as a dismal failure, is dead. And that's sad, I guess. But what does an 89-year-old do when he realizes his dream won't come true? This one does nothing. So this miserable team will stay intact for a while -- until the All-Star break, the trade deadline, October, a year from now. Who knows? Angelos seemingly doesn't  care -- and maybe doesn’t even understand, that the trade value of his assets is declining. 

There's a second possibility. It may be that Peter Angelos no longer is making even the big decisions about the direction of the team, and that those matters are in the hands of his sons. If they are the point of inaction, there occur to me at least two reasons why that might be happening. They may be as ignorant about baseball as their father, and really think there is some to holding on to the core of this team – though it’s not even clear what the core is, with Machado and Schoop approaching free agency and the other veteran position players performing so poorly. Or they may have inherited their father's cowardice, and simply lack the guts to go against his wishes and do what is obviously the right thing for the franchise.

I hope I’m wrong about where things stand, and that there is some positive movement right away. Like tomorrow. But I don’t see anything that leads me to believe that’s the case.

 

[Three Run Homer]

I too know nothing beyond what is public information, but I think your analysis of Angelos' motivations, his attitude towards Duquette, and the reason why the O's haven't tried to rebuild before this season make sense.  Hopefully Angelos or his sons will take a different attitude towards trading Manny Machado this season, given how hopeless this season is competitively.  

[25 Nuggets]

I know it's easy for fans to think any kind of league office is out to get their baseball/football/basketball/hockey team... but really, MLB has been treating the Orioles dirty since the Expos move.  They HATE the MASN contract.  But without it, how do you think the Orioles would have done the past six years?  My guess is they make zero playoffs instead of three.

I do not believe Mr. Angelos is calling the shots anymore - but all I can go on is my belief.  Nonetheless, whoever is in charge needs to see that we the Orioles need to be treated like the Royals or the Rays or (gak) the Marlins... small windows and rebuilds in between, in order to have the best shot at Championships.

[spiritof66]

29 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I too know nothing beyond what is public information, but I think your analysis of Angelos' motivations, his attitude towards Duquette, and the reason why the O's haven't tried to rebuild before this season make sense.  Hopefully Angelos or his sons will take a different attitude towards trading Manny Machado this season, given how hopeless this season is competitively.  

I took this out of the piece because it was too long already, and it's not quite on point, but I wonder whether the way Angelos screwed around with Duquette and the Astros last year will make it hard for the Orioles to make deals during the season, when time often is a factor. If you want to trade with the Orioles, whom do you talk to?  Is dealing with Duquette a waste of time? Should you talk to Brady when he's not out on the field or in the dugout, and has he ever made a trade? Whose approval will be needed to close the deal? Can the Orioles make decision without taking a weeK? The rumors about Angelos's health, and the way in which that subject and the Orioles' decision-making are treated like state secrets, don't help.