Estrada vs. Bencosme

[RZNJ]

Bencosme, as a 19 year old put up a very nice season last year at Delmarva and thrust himself into the prospect discussion as a middle IF.     Bencosme was first mentioned in 2021 when he was 18 making his debut in the DSL where he put up some nice numbers.   Last year, a 17 year-old 2B by the name of Aron Estrada, arguably, put up better numbers than Bencosme did.  Bencosme didn't advance to Delmarva until June, soon after he played a few games in the FCL to start the short season there.    He graduated quickly to Delmarva and looked like he belonged.    Can Estrada do the same?    Could Estrada even start the season with Delmarva?    Why not?     Let's take a look.

DSL numbers for the 18 year old Bencomse vs 17 year old Estrada.

PA - 158/174

2B - 6/12

3B - 2/3

HR - 2/3

BB - 11/29

SO - 18/23

OPS -  .816/1.049

 

Bencosme holds a slight lead in strikeouts per PA and that's about it.   Estrada tops him in everything else.   His defensive numbers (supposedly his weak point) are stronger as well with a much higher fpct and range factor.   In addition, Bencosme is a LH hitter and Estrada is a SH who OPSd over 1.000 from both sides.   More power from the left side but 10-19 with 7 walks and 1 strikeout as a RHB.    What do you think?

Edited February 3, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

Don’t you mean K/PA, not BB/PA?

Hard to know.  The jump Bencosme made is pretty unusual, and I don’t know what the team saw that caused them to promote him after only 2 FCL games.  He must have been incredibly impressive in extended ST, and he certainly proved his promotion was warranted.   Estrada’s DSL numbers were significantly better, but so were some other guys’ in 2021 (like De Los Santos) who didn’t skip over the FCL the way Benscome did.  Since Estrada is a year younger, there’s no real reason to rush him unless it’s just obvious he’s too good for the FCL.   

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Don’t you mean K/PA, not BB/PA?

Hard to know.  The jump Bencosme made is pretty unusual, and I don’t know what the team saw that caused them to promote him after only 2 FCL games.  He must have been incredibly impressive in extended ST, and he certainly proved his promotion was warranted.   Estrada’s DSL numbers were significantly better, but so were some other guys’ in 2021 (like De Los Santos) who didn’t skip over the FCL the way Benscome did.  Since Estrada is a year younger, there’s no real reason to rush him unless it’s just obvious he’s too good for the FCL.   

Some of things that make Estrada stand out over someone like De Los Santos was a better BB/K ratio, more power, and he's a switch-hitter instead of a pure righty. 

Estrada got a lot of hits on the ground (56.1%) and his .412 BABIP was the highest in the organization while Bencosme was at (37.8%) and (.341 BABIP) when he was in the DSL. Now Bencosme was a year older than Estrada at the same stage.

Now I did get the impression talking to folks that saw him in in the DSL that Estrada is the clearly the most advanced hitter of any of the DSL guys which showed up in the stats obviously. It will be interesting to see if he's given the Bencosme experience. He's going to be in minor league spring training this year so it will be interesting to see if he's given some PAs with the "Aberdeen team" which could indicate he's get a chance at opening up with Delmarva at 18-years old. 

The good news for Estrada is there is no real prospect at 2B in Delmarva this year unless the Orioles want to start Young at Delmarva (I think they will start him in Aberdeen) and then him and Holliday will play some 2B when not playing SS. 

So that's a long winded way of saying if Estrada is impressive this spring, he could get the jump to Delmarva sooner than later, even if it's not out of spring training.