5th Pick....Why not Grant Green?

[OsB4Bros]

I know a lot of us on here would love for the O's to draft Grant Green. The thing that I don't understand is how all these analyst and bloggers are saying that he is too big of a reach for us. No one seems to think the O's are even interested in him anymore. Just last year he there was talk of him being the #2 overall pick....What happened? I know he had a bit of a down year with an injury, but he's human.

My personal feeling on the 5th pick is that we should take Grant Green. He is still a great talent and he fills a much needed hole in our system. I understand that he comes with some doubt because of his down year, but so do all the pitchers. There's really not a pitcher outside of Strasburg that is a given. I think Green would be a great pickup for us and we can focus on pitching in the following rounds. I was watching the Scott and Anita show and Roch was on it talking about the draft. They talked mainly pitching and I didn't hear anything about Green. Did I miss something?

Can someone please agree with me so that I don't feel like I'm on the Grant Green Island myself. Thoughts?

[itsernst]

I agree. I think it should be BPA. If they feel Green is the BPA available at 5, I think they will pick him. Do i see it happening? No. Draft is top heavy with pitching. I see top HS arm being pick for us.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

I do not want to use our pick on a projected above average player. He is to big of a risk for to little a reward in my opinion. I would rather draft pitching. There are tons of options to chose from, and I am confident a guy like Miller/Wheeler/Matzek:pray: can have more success on our major league club.

[WebLink21]

I do not want to use our pick on a projected above average player. He is to big of a risk for to little a reward in my opinion. I would rather draft pitching. There are tons of options to chose from, and I am confident a guy like Miller/Wheeler/Matzek:pray: can have more success on our major league club.

Why are you confident that Miller/Wheeler/Matzek can have more success on the major league team, but think at best Green would be an above average player? I am not saying that you are wrong because that is your opinion, but I was wondering why you felt this way. I think that Green has as much of a chance to be a success as the pitchers that you mentioned. He still has all of the tools to be a very successful SS and we are definitely in need of one in our system. I think that Green is a risk (what prospect isn't), but I also think that he is way more than a just a project with little reward as you described.

[OsB4Bros]

Why are you confident that Miller/Wheeler/Matzek can have more success on the major league team, but think at best Green would be an above average player? I am not saying that you are wrong because that is your opinion, but I was wondering why you felt this way. I think that Green has as much of a chance to be a success as the pitchers that you mentioned. He still has all of the tools to be a very successful SS and we are definitely in need of one in our system. I think that Green is a risk (what prospect isn't), but I also think that he is way more than a just a project with little reward as you described.

I agree with you 100%. Green is a risk, but so are the pitchers in this draft outside of Strasburg. He has a ton of upside and I feel like he can prove his worth as the #5 pick overall. I really like Green and I hope we pounce on him. This draft is loaded with pitching so why can't we wait until the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rd?

[QBsILLEST1]

To me, its not that Green doesnt deserve to be the 5th pick, its just that there are a few other arms, HS and college(or indy) who are better prospects with higher ceilings. Green has questions about his bat, namely his discipline and power. Also he has questions about whether he can stick at short, if he cant then you move him to third and he becomes a decent fielding 3rd baseman with no power. If the questions were answered this year as they were expecting to be, then IMO Green would be gone before we have a chance to pick, but with all these other pitching prospects available, I go pitching if its the BPA which it seems it will be. To me, Id rather have Matzek, Crow, Scheppers, Wheeler, Turner, Miller and Purke than Green. Any one of those arms could become #2's or #1's. Not saying theyre projected aces, but if stuff falls right for those arms, any one of them could become an ace, IMO. On that note, I dont think there is as much chance that Green becomes a perennial allstar in the mold of Tulo and Longoria.....

[allstar1579]

Green is an OK player. He could end up being serviceable down the road, but at this point he has shown as much to say he is not a top 5 pick as he has to show that he is. If we were picking at 12, then sure, but there are more than 4 other people in this draft that could be considered better talents than Green.

I know some people (I'm looking at you Greg ) are still high enough on him that they would gamble there, but you can not draft for need and if he was not a SS or we didn't have an organizational hole there, no one would be talking about him. No one is talking about Trout, or T. Wheeler, or Davidson like this...ok Davidson might be more of a reach, but still you get the point.

[OrangeJerseys]

Pitching pitching pitching

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree with you 100%. Green is a risk, but so are the pitchers in this draft outside of Strasburg. He has a ton of upside and I feel like he can prove his worth as the #5 pick overall. I really like Green and I hope we pounce on him. This draft is loaded with pitching so why can't we wait until the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rd?

Every pick in this draft is gonna be a risk, but the risk/upside combo is what you look at, and with Green there seems to be too much risk and not enough upside.....

Pitchers like Crow and Scheppers are nearly ready to contribute right now, and will be after a year of minor league time. So there isnt much risk unless you are talking about injury which is a big risk, but as far as we know, neither is a ticking time bomb(depending on Scheppers medical that is)

Then HS pitchers like Wheeler and Matzek already have major league fastballs and just need to fine tune their command and secondary pitches which are advanced for both of them. For me, as a HS pitcher, it doesnt get much safer than Matzek. The risk you are taking with these guys is injury as with any other pitcher, but unless injury strikes, Im confident that their skills as it is now along with their advanced command will help them make the majors. If there were command questions, I wouldnt be so sure to say they will one day be in the majors.....

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Why are you confident that Miller/Wheeler/Matzek can have more success on the major league team, but think at best Green would be an above average player? I am not saying that you are wrong because that is your opinion, but I was wondering why you felt this way. I think that Green has as much of a chance to be a success as the pitchers that you mentioned. He still has all of the tools to be a very successful SS and we are definitely in need of one in our system. I think that Green is a risk (what prospect isn't), but I also think that he is way more than a just a project with little reward as you described.

First of all my opinion on drafting is all about value. When the top of the draft is so pitching heavy where a hitting prspect like a Green stock gets boosted because the lack of elite batting talent. How I see it is how does the top five batters in this years draft Ackley/Tate/Green/Borchering/Wheeler compare to the hitters of last year Beckham/Alvarez/Hosmer/Posey/Smoak. I think if Green was in last years draft he would not be as highly rated. He has five tool potential at shortstop which could be great if he furfills it, but he has little room for error to furfill his max potential, like a move to third base or never hits for much power.

As for the pitchers the ones I am most interested are high school arms, which are always risky. First why I would rather draft pitching because since our first wave of great minor league pitching is projected to come up soon, I want the O's to make another wave of solid minor league pitchers. An organization like the A's always has waves of young pitching come up and when some of their pitchers reach max trade value, they trade them. I'm not saying we trade Tillman once he reaches his prime, but wouldn't it be great to have a pitching staff of not 1.2.3.4.5. but instead 2.2.2.3.3.

I know our minor leagues is few on promissing bats now that Weiters and Reimold are gone, but this is not the year in my opinion where we use our first round pick on hitting, I don't think Green will be a bust if he is drafted, I think he would be a solid major leaguer. But I would love to pick some one with as much potential as Wheeler. We are in no hurry to rush pitching up as we already have an abundance of them at Nolfork and Bowie. I think taking a high ceiling high school arm would be the best pick, because we can give them time to develop them and max out there potential.

On another note whoever Jordan selects will be the best pick suited for us whether that is Green or some one else . Who ever he has higher on his draft board he will select.

[WebLink21]

On another note whoever Jordan selects will be the best pick suited for us whether that is Green or some one else . Who ever he has higher on his draft board he will select.

I agree. I usually have my favorite player in the draft (Green this year and Smoak last year), but Jordan has earned my respect to the point that i just trust what he does now. Thanks for the reply.

[thundercleetz]

I just see it hard to justify taking a SS with a .280 15-20 HR ceiling at the fifth pick. Now, if he played GG defense, then I would be all for this type of pick. But when you add in the risk that Green may be moved to 3B, there is just too much risk without the large reward. If you are going to be play the potential game, you might as well take one of the potential top of the rotation pitchers in Matzek, Miller, or Scheppers. Nevertheless, if Jordan takes Green, then I have all the confidence in the world that Green was the best player on the board and has the potential to be a great shortstop (or baseball player).

[Stotle]

I just see it hard to justify taking a SS with a .280 15-20 HR ceiling at the fifth pick. Now, if he played GG defense, then I would be all for this type of pick. But when you add in the risk that Green may be moved to 3B, there is just too much risk without the large reward. If you are going to be play the potential game, you might as well take one of the potential top of the rotation pitchers in Matzek, Miller, or Scheppers. Nevertheless, if Jordan takes Green, then I have all the confidence in the world that Green was the best player on the board and has the potential to be a great shortstop (or baseball player).

I don't think your ceiling is right for Green. That looks more like a "safe-ish projection" that's a little high on power. I'm fine with the idea that someone thinks there are better options than Green, but this isn't really being fair to his tool set or his past performance.

[WebLink21]

I don't think your ceiling is right for Green. That looks more like a "safe-ish projection" that's a little high on power. I'm fine with the idea that someone thinks there are better options than Green, but this isn't really being fair to his tool set or his past performance.

It seems to me that a lot of people is putting his ceiling at around those numbers. I think Green has a much higher ceiling than that. IMO that is more likely what his floor would be. The HR numbers seem about right (maybe a little high), but I think Green could easily be a consistent .300 hitter and play a solid SS. IMO, I think people forget how highly regarded Green was before the season (especially with a wooden bat) and just looking at this years numbers. If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that we would have a chance to get Green in the draft, I would have done a little dance.

[thundercleetz]

I don't think your ceiling is right for Green. That looks more like a "safe-ish projection" that's a little high on power. I'm fine with the idea that someone thinks there are better options than Green, but this isn't really being fair to his tool set or his past performance.

What do you see his ceiling as? I am just going on what I have read.