Tony-OH

It's certainly valid opinion to hope he gets it eventually. I just don't think he'll ever have the consistent command, endurance and health to stick as a successful starter at the big league level. Now that the Orioles are hopefully a contender, his role is best in the bullpen. In the reverse, he still could go back to starting at some point if it works. As was pointed out, several starters started off their careers as relievers and converted quite nicely later in their career. By the way, I see some Randy Myers in Hall.

Wow, that's awful. Did not hear about that. I'm glad his children were able to enjoy last night with him at least.

Wait, so you are saying there is not a lot of interest in an April, Mon-Thurs series against the A's?

But what is Hyde supposed to say? I mean, it's only 20 at bats, right? At the end of the day, is he healthy? If the answer is yes, no one should have any concerns. He could go on a two game tear and his entire spring would look different. It's the SSS or SSSs so far. lol

If you mean pull the plug as in reassign them to AAA at some point, I agree, but they are decent depth as swing starters or long men in the bullpen. Since they both have and with options, they can ride the Norfolk shuttle easily, so I like them in AAA.

In DL Hall's first ten starts last year he put up a 5.17 ERA and he walked 28 and batters put up a .225/.356/.354/.710 slash line against him in the 38.1 IP. He was able to complete five innings once and after having his pitch count moved up to 90 pitches over the last three of those 10 starts, he was not able to go more than 4.1 IP. Then, he turned basically unhittable for four starts at the beginning of July where everything was working. He held batters to a .113/.203/.169/.372 slash line striking out 40 while walking 8 in the 20.1 innings those four starts covered. Trust me, when you watch these starts you go away very, very impressed. But here's where it becomes interesting. In two of those starts, Hall was given a 100-pitch pitch count. In the others it looked like he had an 80 pitch count. He was only able to complete six innings in one of those starts (the only time all season). The Orioles then gave him that weird one inning start (I'm still not convinced that was the plan, but something happened) and then he had that terrible start at Memphis where he gave up 6 runs without getting out of the first inning. Over his next two starts with 100-pitch counts, he had one bad and one good start but wasn't able to go more than 5.1 innings against AAA hitters. I don't have his breakdown of stats from innings 1-3 vs 4+, but I can tell you from watching him that the command generally gets very, very shaky once he reaches that 50-60+ pitch count area. The Orioles then brought him up for the weird start in August (76 pitches to get through 3.1 IP) and then returned him to the minors to pitch as a reliever the rest of the year. So really, we have a 4-game stretch where Hall looked like a bonafide starter and even in those he was only able to complete 6 innings once against AAA hitters. The rest of the season we have a guy who struggled a bunch once he got into the fourth inning and beyond. BTW, if you want to go back in time, he had one start in AA where he pitched 6 innings before getting hurt and only two starts where he completed 6 innings in High-A the year before. So to recap, 6 innings starts in his career: AAA- 1 AA - 1 High-A - 2 Low-A - 2 So we have a young pitcher who has been able to complete 6 innings, 6 times in 69 minor league starts. At the end of the day, Hall is extremely talented (Remember I put him as the #4 prospect in a deep system) but I think it's a little disingenuous to say he looked like a bonafide major league starter because honestly, it was a 3-start stretch where he dominated in 5+ innings starts. Now, could he still put it all together and become a starter still, sure, that's a possibility. Is it likely at 24 and half years old he suddenly finds the command, endurance and health to be a successful major league starter long term, I don't believe it is. Is it much more likely that Hall goes out into the bullpen and becomes a multi-inning impact late innings reliever or dominant closer? Yes. So the question the Orioles have to ask themselves is do they believe the best use of Hall's bullets is him trying to find the consistency and endurance that he's never consistently showed in the minors as a starter in AAA this year, or is it better to take that talented arm and allow him to impact your bullpen on what they hope is a contending team?

Tony also knows when just to ignore someone who is arguing like a teenager who can only see his own points and sees all others as silly or foolish. I raised three of them, I'm not going to engage with a grown ass adult who is going to act that way. I have no desire to debate with a brick wall that believes your opinions are silly of foolish because they don't mesh with their very narrow, black or white POV.

I think there is little doubt he starts the year in Bowie. This year should tell us a lot about him. He clearly has his strength back, he's out of the Sally League (still seems weird to say that about Aberdeen) hitter hell, and AA is usually the place where you can really get an idea of what kind of major league hitter a prospect will become. He's had a great spring, but more importantly, we hope to see a great April and May and beyond. Pretty impressive so far for sure though.

Some of the press guys sure do get defensive when someone brings up that the #1 prospect in baseball not hitting all this spring so far might be of interest to the fans. The actual answer, besides the defensive way it was postured, actually was what the fan was looking for. Am I personally concerned that he has hasn't hit and had some "minor" wrist soreness earlier in the spring, not really, because it's March 13th. Ask me on March 28th.

Exactly. If the Orioles decide to send Hall down to continue to start, so be it. Hall is a bit of a unique situation because he clearly has the stuff and repertoire to start, but his command and health point in the other direction. As I said very clearly and understood by 99.9% of the people on here, Hall is a very talented pitcher, but at 24 and half years old, with an injury history that has added up over the years, and command issues that will probably always make him a high pitch count guy, I think it's time to make the transition to the pen. Are there valid reason to send him to AAA and see if he can stick as a starter and be AAA depth this year, sure, I could build that case. At the end of the day, there is no bad answers to Hall, and certainly no silly or foolish ones besides sending him to AAA to relieve.

What are you even talking about? You are the only one throwing around silly and foolish. I just gave my thoughts on the situation. Not once did I say it was foolish to do as you said. I just clearly stated why I think it's time to make him a reliever. YOU decided it was foolish and silly. The funny part is, you dig yourself so far in that can't even recognize who is throwing stones and who is not. YOU are literally the only one with the attitude of it's your way of thinking or it's foolish or silly. You and you alone. Stand on that hill and be proud if you like, but don't try to drag anyone down with you into your pit of absolute black or white. Every time I think you've turned the corner and matured a bit, you tend to pull a 180 and regress 15 years. Your comments sound like rshields97 instead of someone who should be well above that reasoning.

It's not foolish, you are just doing you Sports guy thing of digging in your heels and no changing no matter how much evidence you are given. I'm not wasting my time debating with you when you start off saying things like "It's foolish!" As for Bradish, his change of repertoire has helped him become a starter. The guy I saw in Bowie was a reliever at best. He's a different pitcher thanks to some great development and his hard work. He never had the command issues Hall has nor the injury history. the two things I brought up as facts.

Here's where I'm at with Hall. I think his best value at the major league level is as an impact late inning reliever. At the end of the day, he's never been able to hold up and coming into this season with back woes for me is the final straw. He does have the repertoire of a starter, but we only saw flashes of that last year and when we did, he still needed a lot of pitch to get into the 5th inning. When you combine has lack of ability to command consistently, and his various health woes, I think it's time to make that transition. Now, if you can trade him to a team that views him as a future TOR, by all means, move him, but I think he's a guy who will have a very long career in the pen as an impact left-handed reliever. He has value in that right now, and I really don't know how many more bullets he should waste in the minors trying to find the consistency of command that he's never had. He's 24 and half years old and is ready to pitch in the pen at the major league level. Between him, a healthy Bautista, Givens, Wells, Perez and Baker, that's a lot of heat and guys that can miss bats late in games.

I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think Elias is going to be swayed by a few spring training innings when Baker outperformed Gillaspie last year. Remember Connor Greene and his lights out spring throwing up to 99 MPH a few years back? As soon as the season started he became Connor Greene once again. Now, Hall very well could go to the minors to start the year, but I think that opens the door for Politi or maybe Vespi as the 3rd lefty to make the team. I think Watkins is going to the minors to be starting depth unless several injuries occurs and he makes the team. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to put him in the pen because he's not a high leverage guy and they already have Voth out there to provide length.

You may need to see it, but I doubt the Orioles do when it comes to guys like Baker who are coming of a good major league season. While the Orioles would prefer to see great results, the key is the stuff at this point. Is the velocity and movement the same? Command will come with time and why there's a spring training in the first place. We will be entering the "dead arm zone" of spring training in the next week or so. There is going to be bad outings or innings coming up for most. Elias has rightfully never put too much into spring training performance besides players with extreme springs one way or the other. I don't think there are a ton of jobs open in the bullpen IF Bautista and Hall show to be ready. Bullpen Locks (5): Givens Perez Akin Voth Baker Locks if healthy (1): Bautista Most likely (1): Wells (If GRod makes the rotation) Bubble/battle guys: Hall: if the Orioles decide to let him relieve this spring and he's ready healthwise Politi: Elias took him in the Rule 5 and he doesn't like to give up an arm for nothing Krehbiel: Having two options could hurt him and could give Politi the first shot Vespi: If Hall is sent back to AAA to start, Vespi has the best chance to make it as the second (non long guy) lefty. Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, the best bullpen in my mind is: Bautista Givens Hall (L) Perez (L) Wells Akin (L) Baker Voth

I'd bet good money he's going to be sent to Delmarva to start the year in order to get him off to a good start. That's ELias' M.O. Also, I think everyone needs to cool the jets a bit over his spring. Henderson has been awful so far this spring, do we think he's going to be a bust now? No. It's a handful of PAs in the early stages of spring training. It's nice that he's doing well, but he'll go back to Delmarva to start the year and if he's up to Aberdeen by May I'd consider that pretty quick.

What in how Elias has treated his best prospects makes you think he's going to start a 20-year old as his opening day SS next year? Unless you just saying how you would do it, it is completely unrealistic to think Elias is thinking Holliday will be his opening day SS next year. This is a guy who has a top 100 prospect who plays 2B and went out and signed Frazier to an $8 million contract. Yes, I realize things are changing in regard to the Orioles being a contender vs when Rutschman was drafted, but he gave Rutschman 780 minor league PAs and he was the #1 draft pick out of college. Henderson, who was moved as fast as any Elias high school draft pick ever, still got 1087 minor league PAs. If Holliday ends this season in AA, that will be a great accomplishment. Elias has shown no indication that he's going to rush a prospect, and considering SS is currently manned between Henderson/Mateo/Ortiz over the next few years, there's no need to rush him through the minors. I think Elias looks at his prospects as waves of talent to be used as commodities. Sure, Holliday could be special, but it would be unprecedented under Elias if he got less than 1000 minor league PAs before arriving on the major league scene. I think it's much more likely that Holliday arrives in 2025 as the favorite to be the opening day SS even if he has a great year this year in his first full minor league season.

They can make all the definitions they want, when they tell me that Michael Bauman have one of the best STUFF+ four seamers and then you see how major league hitters hit that pitch off him, and you have to questions the reality.

It's really hard to judge Kevin Williard before he gets his real recruits in, but his awful away record and then watching his team utterly, in every single fashion, shit the bed in the middle of the Indiana game makes me have some initial concerns. Now again, I need to see another season with more of his real guys, not these 5th year senior guys who show why they were nobodies when the pressure gets going. Either way, I had to turn off the game because of the 2nd stretch where his team no only forgot how to play the game of basketball, but fell into the trap of trying to play street basketball instead of trying to get things under control. We know this group of players can't handle a hostile crowd, but we won't know if it's a misjudge in character from a scouting standpoint, or just this group because they were thrown together. Either way, I have no desire to watch this team anymore this year. They will make the tourney, but will lose if they are any situation where the crowd becomes hostile. This group really over achieved a bit, but there lack of ability to handle tough times or hostile crowd really takes away any legacy they might have accomplished.

I believe I've made my thoughts on Stuff+ as an evaluation tool. It's way too inconsistent and not backed by statistical success at the big league level.

I don't think there is any debate that Gunnar can handle SS right now. The debate is if he'll be able to stay at SS long term and if not, does it makes sense to settle him at 3B with Mateo bringing GG level defense at SS. The problems starts with Mateo's bat though.

Updated thru today's tie and cuts.

The organization's scouting since Elias took over certainly has focused on bringing in young men with quality tools, but also with good baseball acumen. They don't seem to get too blinded by raw power if it doesn't come with some kind of decent hit tool to work from as well. It's also clear the develop staff is doing a good job of maximizing the player's talents. When I can do a top 75 prospect list and still find interesting guys of varying degrees at the end of the list, it goes to show that the organization has a lot of talent, and part that is certainly bringing in guys who are athletics baseball players, not just raw athletes with limited baseball success.

No surprises here. Neustrom, Terry, Uvila and Charles may have to fight to make minor league rosters.

You should be in Orioles PR. lol