Tony-OH

And you were in the minority based on the poll. Good for you!

I think second half (.261/.321/.433/.754) Mullins is who he is offensively, at least if he's asked to continue to play against left-handers. If they can use him a bit like Al Bumby was used by limiting his starts against tough lefties, I think his offensive numbers will rise.

Cedric Mullins is going to be 28-years old next year and has put up 9.5 WAR over the last two years. Needing to trade him is silly. Now, is he untouchable in the right deal, absolutely not, but I'll be perfectly happy going into 2023 with Mullins in CF. Now if we can get him out of the leadoff spot, that would be ideal.

Have I? I've been pretty bullish on him after his sustained heater into mid-August and after watching him once healthy. I'm more bullish on him than every guy I spoke with. Could he have been a little higher, sure, but that is more because of the guys above him than on him. And besides, I've already stated that 4-9 for me are pretty interchangeable. If giving the most likely outcome as an everyday major league SS is reserved, well that I plead guilty, but I personally think I'm being bullish on him based off the guys I spoke within the industry.

The only thing I will say here is that I went back and forth over #4 and #5 a few times. There is no wrong answer here as all three of these players are very close for me for various reasons.

Obviously I like Cowser overall, but his left on left numbers and his overall swing and miss are some concerns and that's what has dropped him behind some others. The contact issues to get to the power concerns me a bit a as well as the fact that he swung through a lot of fastballs in fastball counts. One scout told me, "He had no shot against left-handed breaking balls." I'm also not convinced he's a center fielder though I do think he can play at there at times and not kill a team. At the end of the day, I think he's a regular and defensively he would fit very nicely in left field in Camden Yards, but I do wonder whether he'll need to platoon with a McKenna type in LF to maximize value.

Most were more conservative on his bat but like him overall because of the defense. I'm actually more bullish on the bat because of the low swinging strike % and LD%. In Camden he'll lose some homers but I think he'll be a high doubles guy with 12-15 homers.

You have as much of a chance of being selected as Brnovich in the this year's Rule 5 draft. I don't think they have much of a roster crunch at all. They have six spots open, and only Grod, Ortiz and Seth Johnson must be added for sure. Any of P Gillaspie, P Vallimont, OF Cameron, IF Tyler Nevin, or C Kolozvary could be DFA'd and would make it through waivers.

Who will be the Orioles 2022 #5 and #6 prospects?

No one in the system took a bigger jump in prospect status then Ortiz who comes in as the #7 prospect. Joey Ortiz Pos: SS/2B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2021 Level: AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 45/50 Raw Power: 50/50 Run: 50/50 Defense: 55/60 Most Likely Future Role: Starting SS Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS Stats What we know: Despite missing most of 2021 due to a left shoulder injury that required labrum surgery last year, Ortiz was sent directly to Bowie to start 2023. The former 4th round pick started the season slow as he admittedly was not 100% strength wise at the start of the season. Through July 10th, Ortiz slashed just .216/.274/.328/.601 with just four home runs and 59Ks and just 19 BBs in 314 PAs. Then, whether it was because he started to get fully healthy or because he made some adjustments, Ortiz became a completely different player. Over the next 38 games, he slashed .372/.453/.703/1.156 with 11 home runs and 14 doubles, 22 BBs and 22Ks in his next 171 PAs. That heater earned him a promotion to Norfolk where he didn’t stop hitting, slashing .346/.400/.567/.967 with 11 extra base hits, including four homers while striking out 17 times in 115 PAs. Ortiz uses a gap to gap approach with a very balanced approach at the plate, rarely fooled on breaking pitches or beaten with fastballs. He will chase a low and away slider on occasion, but over his last 286 PAs between Bowie and Norfolk, there was not a better hitter in the system. His 7.4% overall (7.5% (AA) and 7.1% (AAA)) swinging strike rates was the lowest in the system and his 16.3% K rate was second only to Cesar Prieto for any hitter with more than 300 PAs. He’s more of a pull power guy so Camden Yards could degrade some of his power, but he’s a gap to gap guy who will still hit his share of doubles. Defensively, he’s easily the best defensive shortstop in the system who is major league ready with the glove. He has plus range, very good hands, turns the double play well, has great baseball instincts, and a solid average major league shortstop arm. When he plays second base he’s a plus-plus defender there, but his value and future is at shortstop long term. What we don’t know: It’s rare to have a player with such a tale of two seasons, but the defense was consistent throughout the season. While the defense is no doubt major league ready, the question is whether Ortiz’s bat is for real or whether he was just on an incredibly heater. What we think: No one upped his stock more than Ortiz in 2022 as he made himself a legitimate everyday shortstop prospect. Personally, I like him more than some others due to his outstanding swinging strike and K rates, but he needs to prove it next year. He’ll get his opportunity next spring, but could find himself back in AAA depending on offseason moves and his performance next spring. If Ortiz can become an everyday 1st Divisions shortstop, his ranking could be a little low, even in this deep system. Don’t count him out in winning an opening day start at either SS or 2B in 2023. https://orioleshangout.com/2022-orioles-7-prospect-joey-ortiz-ss/

The Orioles 1st round pick (#5 overall) in the 2021 draft comes in as the #8 overall prospect after being a line drive machine. Colton Cowser Pos: Outfielder Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22 2021 Level: A+/AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/55 Game Power: 45/50 Raw Power: 50/55 Run: 60/55 Defense: 50/55 Most Likely Future Role: Starting corner outfielder Ceiling: Starting center fielder Stats What we know: Drafted by the Orioles with the 5th overall pick in the 2021 draft, he signed for an underslot ($4.9 million vs $6,180,700) bonus. It’s hard to think 2022 was anything but a success after starting the year in High-A and ending it in AAA. Saying that, it was a bit of a roller-coaster for him as he started off the year ice cold with Aberdeen striking out an alarming rate. He was however getting deep into counts and was drawing walks, but he was very passive at the plate. Through his first 29 games (132 PAs) at Aberdeen he slashed just .219/.371/.352/.724 with two home runs and 44 K’s, but he did walk 24 times to keep his OBP up. He then settle in and put up .289/.399/.463/.861 line in his next 143 PAs (33 games) before getting a promotion to Bowie (AA). Overall he put up a solid 23.8% LD rate and a surprisingly low 8.8% swinging strike rate but was hitting too many ground balls (51% GB rate). Promoted to Bowie on June 28th, Cowser found Double-A pitching to his liking and for the first time in his professional career, his power potential start to show up. He crushed Eastern League pitching for .341/.469/.568/1.037 line, and amazing 35.5% LD rate, .452 wOBA, 184 wRC+, 10 HR and 10 doubles in 224 PAs. However, he did that with an unsustainable .446 BABIP and a high 25.4 % K rate though he paired that with a vert good 16.1 % walk rate and an amazing 35.5% LD %. That got him promoted to AAA on August 30th where he found some struggles against the more mature pitchers initially. In his first AAA games he slashed .079/.255/.158/.413 with 22 Ks and 4 BBs in 47 PAs. Then, like in each other levels, he made some adjustments slashing .299/.390/.582/.972 with 16 Ks and 8 BBs over his next 77 PAs to end the season. While his numbers were very good overall, there are some concerns over the swing and miss, particularly against some high velocity fastballs. At times it appears he cheats to get to fastballs leaving him susceptible to offspeed pitches. AAA pitchers were busting him up and in and he struggled at times times to get his bat on plain, so there is some concerns by some scouts that could be a problem at the major league level. He also struggled once again against left-handed pitching slashing just .194/.329/.287/.616 in 158 PAs with just two home runs and 53 Ks across all three levels. His hitting did improve against them as he moved up, especially drawing more walks, but he does not hit for power and really struggles against left-handed breaking pitches. Defensively Cowser runs well on the go, but at times doesn’t get good reads. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds already (maybe more weight), it’s doubtful he will be able to play anything more than a merely adequate centerfield suggesting a move to corner outfield would be best. With Camden Yards’ spacious left field, left field might be a better fit even though he has enough arm to play RF. What we don’t know: Cowser can hit, but there are some questions at times about his ability hit good fastballs. Can he close up that hole? There are also concerns about his ability hit left-handed pitching which could limit him to a platoon role if he can’t improve. Can he improve enough to be a full-time everyday regular? Defensively, while he can play centerfielder effectively now, how will getting older and gaining weight affect is already fringy? What we think: Cowser is an interesting guy because at times he looks like one of the best hitters in the system and at times you wonder why he swings through so many hittable pitches. It seemed as though Cowser was working on impacting the baseball while offsetting that with making contact. The good news is that at every level he started slow, but made adjustments that made him one of the team’s best hitters. The platoon difference is a bit concerning, but there were some signs of improvement by the end of the year. Next year Cowser should get a look at the big league camp, but will most likely start the year back in AAA. With some good numbers and opportunity, Cowser could be patrolling the outfield in Camden Yards by no later than mid-season next year. https://orioleshangout.com/2022-8-prospect-colton-cowser-of/ 2022 AA Highlights

If you get 10 WAR out of your 9th best prospect, your system is stacked! Nothing wrong if he ends up with a Steve Pearce career, but he does have the upside to do better.

Yep, that covers it.

I don't want to give too much away when it comes to Basallo, but the contact rate and low LD% combined with his distance from the big leagues dropped him below guys like Norby for me. The ceiling is immense, but the risk is extreme.

I'll be honest and say Norby was a tough one for me to place because that power/contact rate was impressive. Ultimately the defensive concerns put him at #9 for me, but the difference between 4-9 prospects on this list is not huge for me. It's fun to debate and go back and forth, but I could build cases in various scenarios that would have guys switch around between 4-9 and not feel bad about it. That shows the strength of the system.

He has a skill set that might work well at 1st base, but I do think the size thing is an issue. Infielders like those lanky targets and while there are no numbers available on how many plays extra a lanky can make at 1B over a shorter guy, it just makes sense that the preference is for the tall lanky guy. Offensively he's got more power than Pearce, but may not have as good a hit tool but overall, Pearce is not the worse comp for him. Dave Uggla might be a the best comp right now for me and the good news is Norby is way ahead of Uggla's development.

Unless I think he's a top 6 prospect in the system, then yes, he's outside the top 10. How far outside? Good question!

I was told Norby's 5-10 listing was "generous". He's too short for 1B. He's either going to improve enough to play 2B or move out to corner outfield.

This is valid observation. Really, 4-9 to me have some interchangeability in the rankings this year for me. I have moved them around and back, and then around again, but finally went with my gut on a few guys. Really guys with a glaring weakness (platoon concerns, defense, arm, bullpen vs starting, etc) are guys that will come up lower.

If Kjerstad turns into Swarber, that would be great, but Max Myers or Reid Detmers sure would have looked good in the system right now. Imagine having him and GRod ready next year for the rotation? They could of had Detmers AND Mayo and Baumler but you do have to giver all teams a bit of a bye for that 5 round 2020 draft. At least they didn't go Asa Lacey or Austin Martin.

You don't know that yet. Maybe there's a big surprise.... or maybe not..

Good question. Norby would get the nod for me due to his arm strength being better, but accuracy can be an issue at times for Norby more than Vavra. Neither throw well on the move. Neither are good defenders at 2B, but Norby's power potential could make teams live with the below average defense. I mean, it's not kill a team defense, just below major league average defense.

Who are the Orioles 2022 #7 and #8 Prospects?

Looks like you guys got the first two! Good job!

The Orioles 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft, Norby comes in as the #9 prospect after hitting more home runs than anyone in the system. Connor Norby Pos: 2B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22 2022 Level: A+/AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 50/60 Raw Power: 50/60 Run: 50/50 Defense: 45/50 Stats Most Likely Future Role: Everyday Left fielder Ceiling: 1st Division Left fielder or 2nd Division Second baseman What we know: Nobody took a bigger step forward power wise then the 22-year old Norby did, smacking 29 bombs between three levels in the system. He started the year in the tough hitting environment at Aberdeen slashing just .237/.311/.425/.736 with a 23.9% K% and just a 8.6% BB%. Despite the struggles, the Orioles promoted him to AA on June 28th and instead of struggling with the better competition, he absolutely took off with the bat. After not homering in his first 12 AA games, Norby hit two homers in game one of a double header on July 14th, starting one amazing heater that saw him hit 21 home runs while slashing .310/.393/.629/1.022 over his next 285 PAs in 61 games between AA and AAA. Norby has power to all fields allowing him to put up an impressive .274 ISO with a 26.4% Line drive rate at AA, and a .359 ISO and 21.2% LD rate in AAA. His strikeout % dropped and his FB rate improved as he moved up the chain this season. He doesn’t have a noticeable platoon difference and actually hit RHB slightly better than lefties last year. Defensively, Norby is not going to provide much value at second base. While he showed improvements in limiting his throwing errors, he still struggles to get his feet under him well and is inconsistent. His range is suspect and he turns the double play a bit slow. He just never looks real smooth out there, but if a team is willing to put up with the below average defense, the bat should play well for the position. He did play 11 games in left field including 8 starts. What we don’t know: Did he just totally blossom as the weather heated up or was he just on a crazy heater? While he was expected to have pop, we’re not sure anyone saw almost 30 home run power. Where is his future defensively on the diamond? What we think: The Orioles could give him some spring training PAs in 2023, but he’ll most likely head back to AAA where if he hits like he did from mid-summer on, he will not be down in the minors for too long. Considering he runs pretty well and his arm could play up in the outfield, a move to left field might be worth giving a shot. If he could become an adequate corner outfielder, it could add to his value since most scouts seem to think he needs to move from 2B to maximize his value. https://orioleshangout.com/orioles-2022-9-prospect-connor-norby-2b/ 2022 Highlights