Tony-OH

Gunnar will be fine, but this is exactly why I chuckle when some people talk about bringing guys up to the majors out of Low-A ball. every level they need to make adjustments. Henderson will be just fine even if he's going through some growing pains right now.

Maybe they've changed policy. This is an organization that will only push information out to MASN first before sending it out to anyone else. This is an organization that won't push out minor league injury information like it's some state secrets. This organization does not care about it's fans right now, they just think they will come back when and if they win again. Sending a non prospect out to this game is a slap in the face of the league and the fans. This isn't the Arizona Fall League where this happens a lot.

There is little doubt the Orioles would not let any of their actual pitching prospects participate in the game. Honestly, it's more development by the numbers forget the players or fan's experience. It is very clear Elias and his staff could care less about the futures game or how much the players would enjoy pitching in it.

True, but not exactly a lot of other options right now.

That's 40 pitches for Garcia and they only have two outs in the 1st.. 4-0 good guys

He really hasn't been that bad tonight if the strike zone graphic is close.

We'll take the double, but that ball should have been fielded by Garcia.

I think the difference is Valdez had one trick pitch while Wells will rely on commanding four pitches, changing speeds, and working in all quadrants of the strike zone. It will be interesting to see if his stuff works because it's really an unknown. Just can't find anyone left-handed with his exact repertoire.

Small sample size, but Wynns has been the worse framer so far among the Orioles catchers, getting just a 42.5% strike rate in the shadow zone so far compared to 42.6% for Severino and 43.2% for Sisco. His strike rate is 76th of 85 catchers who have called for 100 pitches or more. In 2019 he was at 47.1% and 45.2% in 2018. 47% is about MLB average this year. You can see the percentages by zones and the overall numbers here: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2021&team=BAL&min=100&sort=4,1

It's only been two appearances so you have to take his statscast information with a grain of salt, but the early indications are not very good. Let's mainly look at the stuff vs the results (which has shown him to be incredibly lucky so far). Fastball is a low spin rate 89 MPH pitch with below average vertical (-6% below MLB average) but above average horizontal movement (25% below MLB average). It's gotten just 5.3% whiff rate. Curveball is a slow (73.8MPH) pitch that gets about average vertical drop (2% better than MLB avg) and a little above avg horizontal movement (10% better). He's gotten a 22.2% whiff rate with the pitch. Slider is so bad on typical movement that it may actually fool hitters expecting more break. It gets a little below average drop (-11% below) but has almost no horizontal break (1.4 inches of break, -80% below MLB avg). Batter have struggled against the pitch so far and it's the only pitch he's gotten a strikeout on (33.3 whiff rate). He averages 82 MPH on the pitch. The change is an offering that comes in hard (82.3) and has about average drop (-2% vs MLB avg) and a little below average horizontal (-8%). Wells is a guy that doesn't look like a lot of pitchers major league hitters face so that may be helpful for him. It's hard to find a comp for him though the Cardinals Kwang Hyun Kim is the closest I could find. When you look at movement of pitches, Wells is actually better than Kim. The more I research pitch movement and velocity, it seems the more different, whether good or bad away from major league average, the better the pitch works against hitters. I only have anecdotal information to go off of right now, but if true, the fact that Wells looks so different from other major league pitchers the more effective he could be, at least one time through an order. He clearly will need to live on the edge of the strike zone and his minor league numbers suggest he has that kind of command. Whether it works long term is up for debate, but he will be an interesting guy to follow in how his stuff plays at the major league level.

Challenge accepted: I know there was a post about both Rule 5s being returned because they aren't good but I couldn't find it after a quick search. Either way, it's all good. Sometimes we change our minds as we get more information but it's also why we should have an open mind when players are acquired because it meant they thought there was something there. They are shots and sometimes you will hit and other times you won't. Basically Elias is 1-4 for pitchers he acquired in the Rule 5 draft. Basically it cost them $250K to acquire a pitch of Wells' capability. Baily, Rucker (never understood that one) and Sceroler didn't hit. Actually, I wouldn't sleep on Scerloer. I still think he has the stuff to have success if he can command better.

Well that was a fun game to watch. I'm still not sure how Wells is getting guys out, but he was effective overall even if he gave up a couple of runs. Tate continues to look good and hats off to usually maligned Plutko for coming in and doing a decent job despite not having his best command. Mullins continues to be a beast and how about Franco? Hays with some timely hits as well and Santander with his first home run since what, June 6th?

Don't make me go back to where you called for both Rule 5 guys to go back because they were "crap".

I'm 100% sure Hyde is very aware of pitch counts with his pitchers. Now he seems to have an issue with those stats that tell him how effective certain pitchers are the after a certain point or after batters face them more than once or twice, but that also may be that he knows his pen is on thin ice and they need to be rested more so he pushes guys.

Stuff wise, Sulser was better though and he's proved that this year when healthy. Saying that, I was definitely calling for Sulser to be removed for Pop, but I also didn't know about his foot injury until it was mentioned this year. Actually, Isaac Mattson is the guy that never should have been protected over Pop. He looked like a dime a dozen AAA reliever to me and has not proven anything else this year so far. A 92-94 MPH low spin fastball, below average curve and decent change should not have been protected. My guess is if Mattson was acquired by DD and Pop acquired by Elias, Pop would still be here.

Because he has more value as a starter and he's got a starter's repertoire. What we don't know is does his stuff hold up the 50-75 or 75-100 pitch marks? I wouldn't mind finding out in the second half of the year, especially on a team that is going no where. If they find out he can't hold up, then they can focus him as a reliever in 2022, but I'm betting he's in the rotation next year. Let's look at him in comparison to a guys like Kremer, Zimmermann, Akin and even Ace John Means Zone contact% Chase% Whiff% Meatball% WOBA XWOBA Wells 72.7% 31.9 31.5 6.4 .284 .311 Kremer 86.7% 20.4 20.8 8.2 .385 .372 Akin 79.6% 26.4 23.1 7.1 .363 .349 Zimmermann 88.1% 28.1 26.8 7.0 .356 .377 Means 72.0% 27.8 28.9 7.8 .248 .303 Although he has pitched in relief vs starting for the others, he gets hit the least amount in the zone, gets the most chase, best whiff, least amount of meatballs, and only John Means beats him in WOBA and expected OBA (XOBA) with Wells being very close to Means' .303. Wells zone contact % is best on the entire team, his chase % is second to Cesar Valdez 34.9%, his whiff is 3rd behind Scott (42%) and Sulser (35.2%) and meatball % is second only to Tanner Scott (5.5%) but that's mainly because Scott throws strikes.

Lakins would have been the guy I would have DFA'd, especially now that we know that Sulser pitched hurt most of last year when he really fell apart. Shake a minor league tree and ten Lakins fall out. Either way, Elias risked the fact that no one had seen Pop pitch since early 2018 and the Marlins decided to take a shot. Personally, i think the fact that Pop is a sinker-slider guy and Elias/Syd are not found if sinkerballers had a lot more to do with this overall. So far Pop has had his struggles and it still remains to be seen whether his inconsistency of command will continue. Saying that, I'd rather have him in the system than Lakins.

What does that have to do with anything I said? Elias took two shots and hit on one. that's pretty good for the rule 5 draft. I'm not going to sweat whether it was the 1st or 2nd selection. At the end of the day, most rule 5 draft picks end up to be nothing much or are returned. If Wells can actually become part of the future, that's a big win for Elias.

If you want to see how much Wells has changed since his TJ surgery, look no further than his 2080 scouting report from 2018. https://2080baseball.com/reports/tyler-wells/

That's a good point. Saying that, he's shown he's healthy and he's over two years removed from TJ surgery. I'd start stretching him out now.

True, I'm just saying repertoire and command wise I like him better than Bradish. As you pointed out, I'd probably start him in the second half and see what he looks like between after 50 pitches, then 75, then up to a 100 pitches to see if his stuff holds up. So far they have really babied him rarely letting him go over 25 pitches (9 times) though he has had success in the small sample size between 25-50 pitches. From what I've seen, it's time to take off the kid gloves and let's see what they have. He's 26-years old.

The good news is I would have traded Pop for Wells. Yes I know they could have had both, and yes I think leaving Pop was a bit of an unforced error on Elias' part, but at the end of the day, I think Wells will end up more valuable at the major league level with Well's starters repertoire.

Take a look at his repertoire here https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tyler-wells-669330?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb He's thrown 69 changeups and has flashed a curve (35 of them), something he used more in spring training before settling in on the slider in relief. While he could end up a decent fastball slider reliever, looking at the options available, Wells should be given every opportunity to start next year and maybe even this year. His fastball gets a very solid 30.2 whiff and he can show three other pitches that he throws for strikes and can get whiffs on his slider (35.5%) and change (39.5%). The Orioles didn't draft him to be a reliever long term, they drafted him because he has starter potential. If he were in the system right now, I'd have him ranked above Bradish and maybe Bauman if Baumann can't get his act together. Basically he's the 3rd best starting pitcher under 27 in the organization.

Wells will be one of the Orioles starter's next year. He certainly is one of the only guys out there I have faith in that blowpen.