Say O!

Great writeup today on Gunnar’s combination of fast bat speed and short swing leading to his HR power — link to article. Lots of statcast data and comparisons included.

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) provides notes and re-rank of his top50. Note that he removes players who have already lost or projected to lose eligibility in next week or so (meaning no guys like Cowser on O’s or Langford on TEX). Link to post (note is behind paywall). Holliday #2 and 65 FV tier (along w/Skenes who jumped to #1 overall) Mayo #6 and 60 FV tier Basallo #16 and 55 FV tier Kjerstad #47 and 50 FV tier Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) provides update to his top100. Unlike Kiley/ESPN, this list does not yet reflect any changes or projected changes to rookie eligibility (ie guys like Langford and Chourio are still in the top100 list). Link to top100 list and his separate write up post. Holliday #1 Basallo #9 Mayo #22 Kjerstad #26 Povich #92

Before even getting into ballpark dimensions and quality of talent, PCL teams often play at altitude (Reno, Vegas, Salt Lake, El Paso, Albuquerque) and several others are in Texas (Houston, Round Rock) which makes the ball fly.

Thx. Are these games played adjusted? The Os have played 3-4 less games (45 total) compared to most other teams (48-49 for many).

Yep, the league has already started to pitch Gunnar more carefully (on all ABs not just leadoff) and we are seeing his walk totals go up over last two weeks. In terms of seeing 1 pitch to hit an AB, Gunnar was definitely sitting on 2 strike sweeper from Gray last night that he deposited in CF bleachers. You just don’t go oppo taco on outside edge breaking ball on one of the best spinners in the league. Love how Gunnar is hunting certain pitches now. Thought the same thing given the swings he put on Kirby’s split for HR (Sunday).

Well I think Szymborski would say those ZIPs numbers are 50th percentile but even the 80th percentile had Gunnar at 148 OPS+ and 6.2 fWAR (link to O’s preseason write up on fangraphs)

Gunnar’s giving us something to dream on and certainly on pace for one of the best seasons in O’s history, but “greatest” is such a high bar 91 Ripken = 10.6 fWAR // 11.0 bWAR (MVP) 84 Ripken = 9.8 fWAR // 10.0 bWAR 83 Ripken = 8.5 fWAR // 8.2 bWAR (MVP) 66 Frank = 8.2 fWAR // 7.7 bWAR (MVP, triple crown) 64 Brooks = 8.1 fWAR // 8.1 bWAR (MVP) Link to O’s single season leaders for position players on bb-reference Now if narrowing to best season since Ripken’s historic 1991 campaign, the competition there is arguably (ignoring pitchers, ie Mussina) 15 Machado = 6.6 fWAR // 7.5 bWAR 96 Brady = 6.9 fWAR // 6.9 bWAR 08 Markakis = 6.1 fWAR // 7.4 bWAR 13 Crush = 7.0 fWAR // 7.1 bWAR

Here’s fangraphs Ben Clemens take on the Gunnar batting first (excerpted from yesterday’s chat)

Everyday it seems there is another impressive defensive play made by Gunnar. Having watched the KCR and NYY series, I struggle to see how Witt and Volpe have better UZR defensive metrics than Gunnar. The deep plays in the SS hole and the double play turns are elite.

Comps from last offseason Wheeler (age 34) = 3/$126M or $42M AAV, no opt outs, extension begins 2025 Nola (age 30) = 7/$172M or $25M AAV, no opt outs Snell (age 31) = 2/$62M or $31M AAV, 2025 player option Gray (age 34) = 3/$75M or $25M AAV Montgomery (age 31) = 1/$25M Yamamoto (age 25) = 12/$325 or $27M AAV with deferrals, can opt out after 2029 or 2031

More Corbin Burnes day please. 19 whiffs yesterday for Burnes with curveball generating 5 whiffs (on just 7 swings) and slider generating 7 whiffs (on just 8 swings). Definitely the best his breaking stuff has looked all year. Key was starting in zone and dropping out, whereas Burnes had been burying too many into the dirt and not starting the pitches competitively within the zone. Palmer has mentioned Burnes preference to stay away/away with most offerings, but yesterday Burnes finally seemed to vary location at least a little bit and pitched to more quadrants (sprinkled sinkers in to RHs and cutters in to LHs). To me that is what made offspeed more effective instead of hitters staying back and looking away/away.

With Goldy and Arenado looking cooked so far this year (of course watch them have huge series against the Os), does STL even have one good offensive player? I guess Contreras but he is often in/out of Marmols doghouse. With the way STL season is heading, this series might be firsthand chance to see potential relief corps help via trade market.

LFG. May soon be top10 prospect in rankings.

This. When I saw Bradfield in spring training, he was playing CF like Blair…shallow positioning and range for days, had no trouble racing backwards to catch warning track shots with ease.

In todays postgame coverage, Melanie was sharing that Gunnar hasn’t changed his stance since high school, when he was recovering from torn Achilles (I didn’t know that re:injury history).

The Sigbot wizards have run the simulations and keep telling Hyder to bat him lead off.

If Os implement the 6 man rotation, Hyder needs to (a) let starters occasionally pitch into the 7th, and (b) let guys like Suarez and Akin throw >1 inning in relief.

Let Irvin keep going.

Regretting the Webb over Baumann decision.

I think we see Kimbrel at some point today, even if to just get in some work.

When did Gunnar switch to the black shoes? IIRC he has been in orange for much of the season.

So much for the haters who said todays bottom of lineup was turd city

This. Betts bats lead off for Dodgers, Acuna bats lead off for Atlanta.

4 whiffs in the first inning is very good sign for Burnes.

On prior starts, Palmer remarked how rarely Burnes pitches inside, especially to RHs. So far today, he had 97mph swinging strike inside to JRod, and several cutters in on the LHs. Another pitch worth monitoring is whether can spin the curve for strikes, not just bury it in the dirt.