Camden_yardbird

For reference: Buster Posey Year 1: $8 million Years 2-5: $2 million total Year 5: $8 million Then an 8 year $160 million contract. ($20 per year) So working off that an 8 year deal for Adley would get his year 2-6 (team control years and his first three free agent years. Using Posey made roughly $80 million in his first 8 years. Now there had been inflation in two places: arbitration salaries and yearly contract amount. Adley, who could make the case right now for being the best hitting catcher in baseball could expect $12, $15, $18 million if not higher. So I would say that his expected money until free agency is about $47 million. Then I would expect his annual salary to be higher than Posey's (call it $25 per) That's $47 plus $75 = $122 million. I think you hit it on the head. Obviously there are some assumptions in there.

Despite the distaste of most here this is a huge step forward for the league. I look forward to seeing what a balanced schedule does for teams competitive chances. It removes arbitrary schedule decisions. National media get yearly games of large market v. large market to grow interest. For example this year I think most general fans would rather see NYY vs. LAD/SD than games 14-19 of NYY vs. BOS. Interleague happens, get over it. AFC teams play NFC teams, East teams play West teams.

The narrative nationally (I'm seeing it already) on this race is going to be that the Orioles had almost everything go right and just don't have enough. In reality the Orioles probably had their two best pitchers go down with lengthy injuries. Maybe if Rodriguez can come back they have a chance against Toronto?

Has said he will probably retire after this contract. He lives in the area and wants to stay close to home. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/11/25/rhp-charlie-morton-returns-to-braves-but-memories-are-scant/43196985/ With four young children, Morton said proximity to home was the most important factor in his decision. Atlanta is a short flight from the Tampa Bay area. The Braves' spring training complex in North Port is less than an hour's drive away. “My hope was that we could stay close to home,”

Future all star. He just understands bat control and doing what you can with what the pitcher gives you.

A lot of FA pitchers out there. I think we add at least two, one splash and one solid addition.

Just having a little fun.... ...downvote?

I dont know why you got down voted, these are three very good points.

If the Orioles do this they have failed and people still don't understand the Tampa model is about getting talent wherever possible and not living some all homegrown lineup pipe dream.

First, let's put off here that Lopez is anything near Hader. Hader was never a waiver pick up. Hader has sustained his success that was projectable from his minor league numbers. I don't know that Lopez will regress, but as I said in my post, this is the Tampa model. They sell players at their peak when replacements are available. Hell, they sell prospects when they are at the top of their system (see Libertore). It's possible Lopez keeps this level of success in which case the trade was probably a loss. But getting four players probably means you hit on 1-2. That's how you keep a stocked farm system. That's how you create flexibility. Tampa acquires talent. Period. Regardless of need. As I have stated in previous posts, look at what they did this year. The Rays traded for Isaac Paredes because the cost was low. Paredes plays second base. Prior to the trade Tampa had Brandon Lowe (also an OF), an all star just signed to an extension. They also had Taylor Walls, a top 5 (in their system) prospect who can play SS, 3B, and 2B. But that's not all, "there's more!". They had vidal Brujan, another top 5 prospect and top 100 MLB with 50 steal speed. Theyve also had Aranda, and Chang, and Raley. Point is, they didn't need Paredes but they saw an opportunity. That's the Tampa system that everyone wants to emulate. Did trading Lopez hurt the Orioles chances this year? Yes. Does it really matter that their chance at the playoffs dropped a few percentage points? Probably not. The Orioles were not willing to do what teams ahead of them in the standings did. The Mariners went and got Castillo, a two year player for them. The Blue jays went and got Merrifeld who they have for 3 years. Were you willing to do those things for this year? Noelvi Marte was a top 20 MLB prospect. We're you willing to give up westburg or Henderson? Does trading Lopez hurt the Orioles chances next year? Maybe but maybe not, but now they armed with 4 prospects to plug those holes. I wanted to see the Orioles prepare for competion too this year, but the time to do that was really last off season, and they operated as if they were still in rebuild mode. It looks like that won't be the case again. The point is, that competitiveness will come from and be maintained by many, many more moves like this, so we better get used to it. The days of small market teams being able to keep players because they could be part of the next competitive team are over.

But if the shift goes away we can bring back Chris Davis.

I'm going to get blasted for this but give me the Hosmer deal. Hosmer + a good farm systems #10 and #20 prospects for a failed former first round pick. Hosmer becomes your 1B (decent to good defense) for the next three years. He replaces Trey in the lineup. He makes Moutcastle expendable for an off season trade for a pitcher. I think there is merit in that deal.

I have said before that I have seen him multiple times at games and I think he has an elite contact skill and great eye. The guy knows what he wants to do with the bat. These are my comps: High: Michael Young in his his non-peak years (2003, after 2006). I dont think Vavra will ever hit 20 HRs like young in his peak years, but I could see 190-210 hits, 10 HR, .290/.340 Low: Freddy Sanchez. Freddy was a three time allstar. He frequently put up a .290 average and peaked with a batting title. He was never a power hitter and didn't get a lot of attention playing in Pittsburgh but he was a solid second baseman and good hitter with top of the league contact skills.

The OFers that moved were largely fill ins outside Soto. I would rank Santanders trade value above: Peralta, Hader, Marsh, Merrifield, Grossman, Pham, Siri, Naquin, and Benintendi With Benintendi being the closest in value and having been traded a werk ago by a team completely out of contention. So I completely understand why the Orioles didn't trade Santander, it would be a more complex trade negotiation than the deadline allowed for.

Punting the season? They traded a guy who for all intents and purposes was a free agent after the season and sold high on a waiver wire player having a career year. Yes, they didn't add to the roster. Like or not, this is the Tampa model that people want the Orioles to follow. There is no asset that is sacred outside of 1-2 key prospects who are willing to sign early extensions, and even then its only while they are cheap. And there is no position in the standings that locks their roster up either. Tampa churns and churns. There were reports they were discussing Ji Man Choi with teams a week ago. He has the third most WAR on that team.

Povich is young for his league, has a 4:1 k to walk ratio, and gives up less than a hit an inning. Rojas is 18 in the FCL and has given up a total of 18 walks in 70 pro innings. Sub 1.00 WHiP. Extreme control there. Juan Nunez, also in the FCL, has struck out 109 batters in 79 pro innings. I can see the appeal.

Whoever starts these threads gets automatically banned from now on.

But you get more control. And maybe that's what makes him expendable for the Mets. They think they have a championship roster.

Don't quote me but I think I saw somewhere the Orioles asked for Kalil Lee from tge Mets?

Elias is trying a new strategy. The other team can't win games if you have all the outfielders. Like every single one. Lee would give the Orioles flexibility to move Mullins or Hayes with potentially less drop off in the next few years. The way Elias is drafting the Orioles are angling to be an OFer factory with high power left hand hitters in RF necessitating rangy CFers.

Thats because the rays build for depth. They understand that roster development isn't linear (player to prospect, position to position) and they understand that flawed players with elite skill sets in one facet of the game still have value. Just look at their leaders in WAR this season. 1. Yandy Diaz - former top prospect of the guardians. A flawed player whose defensive positions are limited corner spots and who has little power, but with an elite OBP tool. Acquired when CLE gave up on him early in his career even when Tampa had a number of top 3B/1B prospects (Lowe(s), Walls, etc.) 2. Ji Man Choi - former mid level prospect who looks an awful lot like Diaz. Little power and limited defense but with solid OBP skills. 4. Isaac Paredes. Acquired from Det at the start of the season. When I saw this trade I said "thats a Tampa move." Paredes, a 2B was acquired despite the team have Franco at SS, walls and brujan as top prospects, and Lowe on the team. He was a top performing hitter in MiLB. Lowe got injured and Paredes (as well as others has stepped in). He's hit 13 HRs. 5. Harold Ramirez. Another guy acquired from CLE who they had all but given up on. Margot (admittedly a big trade), Meija, Phillips. The list goes on.

Last top pick we had to totally rework his swing (beavers) was Stewart.

I think Elias takes a shot at soto on his terms with the blessing from management but doesnt offer enough to get him. I'm thinking the Rangers.

I think organic replacement will have to wait for the end of the season, contracts to finish up, etc. That said, with Urias hitting I could see him being a trade target the Orioles would be willing to give up. And Odor being a guy that a competitive team would want for depth. Otherwise, Mateo has not been the healthiest player through his career so I think you probably see one of these guys if you have a late season injury. I would think given his prospect status and age that Henderson is the least likely to be seen this year. Vavra -> Westburg -> Henderson.

DiPoto does it all the time.