24fps

My money's on waiver wire specials for the next 2-3 weeks.

Why the hell is the umpire laughing at the HBP?

In fairness, he didn't have an owner not named Angelos until 24 hours before opening day.

Soto's some mighty defensive RF ain't He?

Can’t say I’m surprised. Only silver lining is that he didn’t wait around so he should be a lock for 2026.

MFY's probably paid him.

As dopamine hits go, is there any better than Boone/Yankeee fanbase whining?

Okay. Fair enough. Only one final thought from me then as we retire to our respective corners... There's only one thing that angers the baseball gods more than hubris, and that's conflating your desires with the motives of those who actually make the decisions.

Thing is, if the playoffs started tomorrow, Irvin would get the nod for game 3 over Kremer, and rightly so. I'm a big fan of what Kremer and Irvin have done beginning around this time last season and it's terrific to have both of them at the back end of the rotation. But it's also a perfect opportunity for the O's to take the initiative and I'll really be disappointed if Elias goes all mealy-mouthed come late July.

I believe that the O's COULD be the next Houston Astros. And Mike Elias is a good horse to bet on to get them there. I also believe that the baseball gods absolutely adore hubris. It's a wonderful opportunity to have a good long laugh, share a round of applause, and raise their glasses in a toast. Then they punish...

The 2020-2024 Chicago White Sox should be a cautionary tale for all of us. A little bad luck and a few bad decisions is all it takes.

I think the Burnes trade offers some insight. Elias wasn't afraid to trade two solid prospects for a blue chip starter and the price for equivalent talent will be a little steeper at the trade deadline. Whatever the outcome I think this trade deadline will be a good litmus test for both Elias and many OH posters on the prospect valuation front.

I would be shocked if Basallo, Mayo or Holliday were traded in a bad deal, but it's shaping up like the O's are going to need some front office help. How much remains to be seen, but we all know it can get expensive.

1. If you re-read my post, you'll see that I acknowledged Elias' position at the time in the very first sentence. I didn't say Elias directed the trade. I'm very much saying that Elias' experience with the Astros is going to inform his actions with the Orioles. 2. At the time, Perez, Cameron and Rogers were the Astros' #3, #9 and #11 prospects respectively per Sports Illustrated. Not nothing, especially considering the salary relief the Tigers were getting. For context, Orioles #3 is Basallo. 3. The Verlander trade literally came together in the last hour before the trade deadline. What comparable pitcher will be available this year is unanswerable until around the last week of July at the earliest as teams evaluate their post-season prospects up until the last minute. Behind my original post is the recognition that this season is different in at least two important respects. First, the O's are unequivocally a contender and that requires Elias to widen his approach as a general manager. Secondly, the new ownership is a lot more like Jim Crane than John Angelos ever was, so taking on an expensive contract for the right player is now something that can be considered.

In 2017 the Astros - who had Mike Elias as the director of scouting - traded for 34 year-old Justin Verlander who was under control until 2020 ($28 million vesting option after 2019). They gave up first rounder Daz Cameron, third-rounder Jake Rogers and, at the time, a highly thought of MiL pitcher named Franklin Perez. In return they got Verlander and his remaining $60 million guarantee, $18 million in salary relief and a PTBNL. If presented with that kind of opportunity, I think Elias will willingly part with someone like Basallo and more. As a general statement not directed at you, I think that most people (including myself at times) seriously underestimates how much professional GM's value players who have proven that they can succeed at the ML level, even to a small degree I predict that if Elias trades for a genuine difference-maker the cost is going to be well beyond almost everybody here's comfort zone. I won't be surprised though, and I'll probably support the decision.

That trade wouldn't bother me, but personally I would rather spend those kind of resources on pitching if it's right now.

Got the Luis Robert Jr./Garrett Crochet blockbuster trade idea dusted off yet?

I don't think anyone is in favor of overpaying but the definition of overpaying is largely dependent on context IMO. If that player gets you to the postseason and beyond then bitching about the price later gets tedious in a hurry. I'm not in favor of dumb deals, but I'm also not invested in the need to win every one of them and I think far too many people are. Just get what you need when you need it, don't be stupid in the process and let season play out. Just to be clear, another Jack Flaherty is not what I'm talking about.

If he does a creditable job of bringing in reinforcements where needed, then I think he gets a standing ovation on opening day 2025. My point was that he now has a lot of pressure to start acting like the GM of a perennial contender, not a rebuilding team. That means greater risks with the potential for greater losses if things don't work out. For example, I wouldn't like losing Kjerstad but if he brings back a player the O's need to go for it in 2024, I won't be whining about it afterward if things go south. I think the fanbase will mostly agree, but if the appearance is that Elias didn't hold up his end while the players did, then nobody will be happy and that would include me.

How many pitchers do you think will be available that are also worth having? How many other teams will also be after them? There will be serious competition for the handful of players the Orioles have any use for and there's no indication that there's anything like a buyer's market out there. While it's technically true that Elias doesn't have to do anything, should the team continue to play at the current level and he decides to do nothing so he can continue to hug prospects, then I wouldn't want to be him if the O's get booted from the postseason as ingloriously as they were last season. None of this means Elias has to make a dumb deal, but let's not pretend he's automatically in the driver's seat.

The team's continued success has really put Elias on the spot IMO and I don't see a Flaherty type as an option anymore. My money is on a sensible trade that comes at a price high enough that most of us here, including myself, won't like, but a premium comes with having bad luck and that's where the O's are at the moment.

I would be very surprised if every last one of the GM's Elias talks to about quality starting pitching doesn't start by asking about Westburg and the rest. Again, I think it's a mistake to believe that the O's have a ton of leverage here. They certainly have some, and Elias is smart and disciplined, but I don't see any bargains. I especially don't see the luxury of acting like youth and multiple years of control is any kind of rigid starting point for the O's.

I'm completely fine with Irvin and Kremer as numbers 4 and 5, but not so much as 3 and 4, Suarez and Povich are great as depth and stopgaps for the next few weeks. A #3 starter is a clear need if Bradish is gone for the rest of the year. Fortunately there's enough time before the trade deadline figure that out, but I'm not optimistic about his prospects. It's a pipe dream to think that the O's are in the driver's seat at the moment, so personally, I'm looking for the best starter I can find that doesn't cost Holliday, Mayo and Basallo at the MiL level and Westburg, Henderson, Rodriguez, Cowser and Rutchman at the ML level. Being a player in the post season is going to be expensive, but the future for the O's is now and it's no secret.

It's hard to see the downside for the Cubs if they ask for the moon then keep Imanaga if nobody bites.

It was clear (to me at any rate) at the time and in hindsight that Elias had a strict budget cap due to the pending sale. He chose to spend his limited 2024 budget increase on Kimbrel and Burnes which was completely justifiable. Burnes is only $2 million more than Gibson this season and I don't think anybody would prefer Gibson in that scenario. Hindsight works both ways.