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It could also be that Mike Elias overvalues Santander as an extension of his tendency to overvalue vets simply because they're vets. I haven't completely made up my mind whether I believe that or not, but it's a dog's life for Kjerstad either way so it might not be a good idea to read too much into it.

Seems a little convoluted. Santander won't be an asset after the last day of the season although I suppose there could be some legacy value if he's traded. Otherwise there's no longer an investment to generate a return on. Interestingly, the QO does offer an opportunity to gamble on an expired asset and to me, that's a better way to look at qualifying offers - as weird derivatives. If Elias thinks Santander is worth a roster spot and tying up a significant percentage of next year's budget, then there isn't much risk and it's back to being a business decision. That's fine and he should leave it there. But if he has a hunger for that draft pick like many on here do, then he's off into cowboy country pretty quickly and thankfully, I don't see that happening. I don't think there's much value in these kind of compensatory draft picks. Next year's pick for the O's would be around #35. Checking the June draft from 1965-2023 you'll find there have been 3 players out of 58 who have put up more than 10 WAR over their entire careers - roughly 5%. That's a pretty crappy success rate. Then there's the carrying cost measured in years before you know the outcome of your already unlikely gamble - so it should be viewed as a consolation prize, not any kind of incentive. Finally, if the O's think there's even the slightest chance of changing their minds about Santander, then it would be pretty dumb to offer a QO, have it accepted, then have to take $20 million off the table for God knows how long while trying to fix their mistake and put together the 2025 team. The complexity of trading an expensive, unwanted player while finding an acceptable return elsewhere shouldn't be underestimated. Elias' job is already complicated enough without unforced errors.

With a former rocket scientist and blackjack dealer on staff and a few billionaires with an equity stake on speed dial, I think it's safe to assume that whatever happens, the odds will be pretty thoroughly calculated beforehand. I won't be unhappy if Santander is back, I just think he's redundant and the focus should be elsewhere next season.

I don't see anyone suggesting that the new ownership is likely to continue John Angelos' approach to spending. I also don't see any evidence that Rubenstein and his partners are going to spend like drunken sailors. I'm sure they're quite aware of what has been going on with the Mets over the last few years. The only issue I was addressing is whether the O's should be issuing a QO to Anthony Santander. I wouldn't because I'm willing to gamble on in-house options for RF in 2025 and I think whatever money is ultimately available should be used to address pitching. There are good arguments for offering the QO though. Elias is a cautious guy and he has shown a bias toward established ML players for one, so I can certainly see that being an important consideration when deciding Santander's fate with the O's.

The harm in offering the QO is that if he accepts, suddenly 20% of the payroll is sunk into one player who, as you pointed out, is approaching his expected declining years. Payroll should increase in 2025 so that percentage will come down, but if you want to gamble, you not only risk having to forfeit whatever money is involved, but also a significant amount of flexibility when it comes to the rest of your overall strategy. The only way to be smart about qualifying offers IMO is to offer one if you think the player will be worth the price and you've calculated that it would cost more per year in FA to retain him. Sure, there's the supplemental draft pick, but supplemental draft picks are consolation prizes, not the point. I don't see Elias gambling with his eye on the consolation prize, especially given the very low chance of success with draft picks.

I checked out this short article. It read like it was written by AI so I looked at the byline. Sure enough Sports Illustrated. Predictably the "writer" Evan Massey has an extensive yet oddly vague bio. To his credit, he claims to like to spend his free time with his wife and son.

Even if they eventually lose, you gotta love this team.

It should. But Statcast is not in love with him and he looks a little like a project.

Fair point, but I have to say that if anyone was destined from birth to be a Yankees fan, it would have to be Emperor Palpatine.

TBH, the way Trevino kicked the bat after Cowser got drilled made me angrier. Total punk move. But whatever… it was an incredible job by the O’s to show everybody that they are now the grownups in the room. The AL doormat days are long gone.

Seriously? That's hilarious. I guess their entire bullpen and the starting catcher were also?

A lot of teams will wait until the last week of July before deciding if they’re sellers or not, so all the options won’t be clear until then.

John Angelos was the majority partner until one day before the season opened. There was no money available and, more importantly, no willingness to take on a multi-year contract when Sonny Gray was on the market.

The O's really made it harder than it needed to be tonight.

No, ME would want money too. Most of the current contending teams have luxury tax considerations, that might improve ME's position.

I would be surprised if Cowser is untouchable.

On the good days.

O's win!!! Immensely unsatisfying game. Team has to dominate tomorrow. No two ways about it.

Ball 3 looked suspiciously like a strike to me.

Now you've pissed off the baseball gods.

I can't wait for Palmer to get back.

Extras here we come. This game is so reminiscent of the days when the O's wilted at the mere thought of the Yankees.

And the Oscar goes to ..... Alex Verdugo!!!

What an butt ugly AB.

They're ALL punchable. Every. Last. One.