[Shohei Ohtani]

I would offer him something like 10/500. Yes that's a huge risk, but he's the best player in baseball and covers our biggest need in a TOR starter. 

That said, I can't imagine he chooses to sign with us unless we're the biggest offer by a decent amount

[The second guessing Hyde thread.]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I would imagine most hitters hit worse against relievers nowadays because of the way relievers are used nowadays for the most part.

I think the fact that the Royals and now the Orioles have given him very little PAs against lefties speaks volumes. Right now it appears O'Hearn has settled into a role that he's comfortable in and with Santander and Urias having the ability to play there, there's not a lot of need for him to start against lefties.

Sure, but those splits are pretty drastic. Without doing the math, he's got to be batting somewhere around .050 against left-handed relievers compared to .243 against starters. I doubt most players have a split nearly that large.

You're right that it's clear the Royals and Orioles don't think he can hit left-handed pitching well, but these numbers make me wonder if he could start against lefties and perhaps be pinch hit for if the opponent brings in a lefty reliever. Or maybe he could be serviceable under the new reliever rules if you put him in the lineup between two lefty mashers.

[Orioles calling up Westburg.]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

He does. His exit velos are off the charts in the minors. 
 

Ortiz has a similar upside to Westburg imo. Both are 3-4 WAR upside type guys but Westburg perhaps does it with a little more offense at a slightly less premium position and Ortiz can do it with better defense at a more premium position.

If both are at second base, it’s probably a close call at who is more valuable.

That said, you really do need to trade one of them sometime in the next 18 months and the discussion is, who do you want at second long term and does trading Ortiz as a SS net you more value than keeping Ortiz as a second baseman does?

I can see either argument.

As second baseman, I probably give a slight lean to Westburg overall but there is no wrong answer imo.

Couldn't we get rid of Frazier and Mateo and use Westburg/Ortiz at 2B/SS?

[The second guessing Hyde thread.]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:12 AM, Tony-OH said:

There is a reason why O'Hearn has just four PAs this year against lefties. He just can't hit them. The question is how early do you pull him because to me, you don't start playing matchups until the 7th inning or later depending on the situation. Perhaps the 6th if it's a real key situation in a close game, but I worry about matchups that early because it could lead you to a bad matchup late in a game when you absolutely want your best matchup.

You think there's anything to the fact he's hitting a respectable .243/.336/.449 versus LH starters in 125 PA? It seems to be those 43 PA against LH relievers that are killing the overall line.

[2B/3B/SS playing time for the next 30 games]

17 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Put me in the same camp as @forphase1 that I really don't love that Gunnar is our only real replacement for Mateo (without Ortiz in the mix). But I'd still be very comfortable rolling out a Urias/Henderson/Westburg/O'Hearn infield 80% of the time. Mateo might want to start taking grounders from other spots on the diamond and get used to new throws. That's his ticket to sticking around here, because we know the org likes him well enough. He's been a good(ish) player for us through this uprise. 

Westburg has played mostly SS in AAA, but I agree he's not an amazing option there in MLB. Still, I'd think he is an option, at least for a few years.

[How does Westburg get playing time vs RHP?]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Urias should be more than LHP-only. I think RHB lineup is something like:

2B Frazier/Westburg

SS Gunnar/Mateo

3B Urias/Westburg

That adds up to Westburg playing perhaps half time vs RHB, with more to come if he hits and Mateo/Frazier don't.

I looked it up and Urias actually hits righties better than lefties. Westburg seems to be the reverse. Could maybe give Urias an extra start or two per week against righties at Westburg's expense

Long-term though, I think Westburg takes over the Urias role on the team

[How does Westburg get playing time vs RHP?]

On a weekly basis, something like:

Rutschman: 4-5 starts at catcher, 1-2 starts at DH, 0-1 days off
Bemboom/McCann: 2-3 starts at catcher
O'Hearn: starts at 1B versus righties
Frazier: 2-3 starts at 2B, 1-2 starts in LF 0-2 starts at DH
Mateo: 4-6 starts at SS, super sub?
Henderson: 5-6 starts at 3B, 0-1 at SS, 0-1 days off
Urias: starts at 1B versus lefties, 0-1 starts at 3B, 0-2 starts at 2B, 3-5 days off
Hays: 5-6 starts in LF, 0-2 days off
Mullins: 4-5 starts in CF (while groin finishes healing), 1-2 starts at DH, 0-2 days off
Santander: 1B versus lefties, 2-3 starts in RF, 0-3 days off
Hicks: 2-3 starts in CF (maybe versus lefties?), 0-1 starts at DH, 4-6 starts in RF, 0-1 days off
McKenna: Pinch runner/defensive replacement
Westburg: 1-2 starts at 3B, 3-4 starts at 2B, 0-2 at SS, 0-3 days off

Lineup vs. RHP

Mullins
Rutschman
O'Hearn
Santander
Henderson
Hays
Hicks/Frazier
Westburg/Frazier
Mateo/Frazier

Lineup vs. LHP

Mullins/Hicks
Rutschman
Henderson
Santander
Hays
Hicks/McKenna
Urias/Hicks
Westburg
Mateo
 

[There's NO "holding the Mayo"]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

Fangraphs has Mateo at 0.7 WAR (-6.1 offense/5.6 defense) and Frazier at 0.0 WAR (-2.8 offense/-6.0 defense).  Not stellar, except Mateo's acknowledged defensive skills have some utility.

I don't see many people seriously advocating just dumping Frazier and Mateo.  Nor am I, but the time has come to stop predicting dire things for the Orioles if those two start to see less playing time.  Mateo clearly has some value on defense and on the basepaths.  Frazier?  You tell me, I'm stumped and praying for a trade.

FWIW, Baseball Reference has them at 0.8 and 1.0 WAR

[There's NO "holding the Mayo"]

4 hours ago, 24fps said:

Whining?  At this point in the season it's virtually impossible to make a persuasive argument for continuing to play Mateo and Frazier every day.  Who broke camp this season is about as relevant as Adam Frazier's veteranocity.

Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier have been worth 0.8 and 1 WAR in just under half a season. There's no way to get them off the roster without losing them. If the prospects we bring up struggle, we might actually make the team worse this year when we're doing excellent and have a shot at a deep playoff run. Mateo has been underperforming his expected stats a little, so there's reason to believe he'll improve some over what we've seen recently.

I'd still go with youth because we have so many infield prospects I can't believe they'd all struggle, and because it's good to have one eye on the future even in seasons where you're making a playoff run, but I find the argument I made at least somewhat persuasive.

[Orioles calling up Westburg.]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero chance 

 I agree he's not the most likely, but I think it's a possibility

[Ryan O'Hearn has to start]

So I was looking at O'Hearn's lefty/righty splits and I saw something interesting.

As expected, his MLB stats versus LHP are a bloodbath, albeit in a small sample size: 169 PA, .170/.243/.261

HOWEVER

125 of those 169 were against left-handed starting pitchers, and in those 125 plate appearances he hit .243/.336/.449

What does this mean? Maybe nothing, as it's a small sample size, but it suggests that his issues with lefties might be mostly limited to left-handed relief pitchers. Maybe O'Hearn can adjust if he sees the same left-handed starter a few times, maybe he has trouble with left-handed velocity that you get from short-stint relievers.

This is at least some evidence he doesn't have to be a platoon player, although you'd probably want to pinch hit for him late in games if the other team brings in a lefty reliever. Maybe someone who's better at researching stats/splits can dig deeper.

[Ryan McKenna 2023]

I think that makes up for the dropped fly ball

[Orioles To Designate Spenser Watkins For Assignment]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t understand why they don’t want to field the best team possible. It’s just so odd.

The only thing I can think of is that we'd have to get rid of established players who are part of a team with one of the best records in baseball to call them up and there's a chance they will massively struggle. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." I think this is short-sighted, and surely SOMEONE out of our mass of talented position player prospects would be an improvement over some of the guys on the team, but I can't get too mad when the team is doing great.

Maverick Handley as to be wondering what it's going to take to get his shot at backup catcher. The organization clearly doesn't believe in him at all. This is to say nothing of Cowser, Westburg, etc.

[Hall going to Sarasota]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Blue Jays sent him to camp to rebuild his delivery because his fastball was too straight. I was referring to the whole, "stop pitching and start weight training to build velocity" idea.

[Hall going to Sarasota]

Has anyone ever tried this with a pitcher before? Did it work?

[Jordan Westburg 2023]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think some people have the impression that Westburg is a poor defender.  He’s not, from what I’ve seen.  It’s just that we have two young guys who are better defensively (Ortiz and Henderson), plus two vets who respectively won a Fielding Bible award and a gold glove last year.   So, the bar is really high.   

I mean, he's not Delmon Young, Aubrey Huff or Mike Trumbo bad, but I don't get the impression his glove is going to be an asset anywhere on the dirt except maybe second base. He could probably play shortstop, especially while he's younger, but I doubt he'd put up positive fielding metrics over a long timespan there. You can even see on that play he doesn't have the greatest SS arm.

[Garrett Reed to Norfolk, Spenser Watkins called up]

38 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Who is Jason Watkins? My friend Spencer wants to know. 

As does my friend Spenser

[6/15: Two Dozen Strikeouts]

Granted that was two swings, but wow does Mayo have an uppercut swing

[DL Hall 2023]

I feel like D.L. Hall would be in the bullpen right now if Elias had drafted some pitchers in the first four rounds. The way they're handling him screams, "He has to succeed as a starter because we don't have anyone else."

[Cade Povich 2023]

The fact he has those ERA numbers with a BABIP that high is astounding

[Bullpen Hierarchy]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who, specifically?  Not trying to be a smartass, I just don't really see legit options there outside of maybe Reed Garrett who's had a great year for Norfolk. I'm not sold on Darwinzon, Vespi, etc.

D.L. Hall, but they won't do that

[Mounty to 10 Day IL, Denoyer DFA’ed. Kolozsvary Contract Purchased]

Before his injury, I was ready to give Mountcastle the month of June to show me something. June is usually his hottest month, and so that seemed fair to me.

I wondered if I should be more patient with him because of his injury, but with the emergence (or at least hot streak) of O'Hearn and Kjerstad now at AAA and playing first base, I wonder if there's even the need.

I'm thinking if O'Hearn is still hot when Mounty is healthy, Mounty needs to be optioned to see if he can figure anything out. If the team is convinced the vertigo explains everything, maybe I'd give him a few more weeks to show signs of life.

In the meantime, if another team came to me offering anything of value for Mounty, I'd send him packing.

[Jud Fabian 2023]

More like Stud Fabian, amirite?

[Elias & Prospect Promotion]

Hasn't super two almost certainly passed?

[And so itbegins]

He's had a poor (by his standards) April, a great May, and a bad June. He's got what, one and one-third seasons of MLB time and he's 25? Maybe it's a little early to declare "what he is" although I admit he hasn't been everything we hoped and dreamed for this year