ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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I feel like they flipped Gunnar and Jackson there
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Absolute ceilings?
Gibson: 4.00
Irvin: 4.00
Kremer: 3.70
Bradish: 3.40
Rodriguez (in his first year): 3.20
Well above average results?
Gibson: 4.25
Irvin: 4.25
Kremer: 4.00
Bradish: 3.80
Rodriguez: 3.70
50th percentile?
Gibson: 4.50
Irvin: 4.60
Kremer: 4.25
Bradish: 4.15
Rodriguez: 4.00
Well below average?
Gibson: 4.90
Irvin: 5.10
Kremer: 4.50
Bradish: 4.40
Rodriguez: 4.30
Absolute disaster?
Gibson: 5.40
Irvin: 5.60
Kremer: 4.95
Bradish: 4.80
Rodriguez: 4.60
Though honestly most of them could put up demoted/out of baseball numbers and it wouldn't shock me. These are FIP predictions, btw. I think Wells's ceiling is around Kremer's and his floor is around Gibson's if I'm going to add him to the mix. Voth I would say has a ceiling around Kremer (maybe a little worse) and a floor a bit worse than Irvin -
8 hours ago, Number5 said:
Team Speed
... fer cry sakes.
sorry - somebody had to do it.
I've been waiting
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Isn't the most optimal batting lineup putting your best hitter number 1, second best at 2 etc. down to your worst hitter at 9? I think I heard too that if two hitters are really close you should put OBP ahead of slugging
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Worth mentioning, Gunnar’s birthday is June 29, while Manny’s is July 6. So Gunnar’s “baseball age” when drafted was a year older than Manny’s, but really he’s 8 days older for his draft class than Manny was. Throw in the Covid interruption and Gunnar’s “age 20” season is really akin to Manny’s “age 18” season.
That said, I’d agree he’s not likely to match or come that close to Manny’s career WAR. But ask me again when Gunnar has a couple of seasons under his belt.
Huh, didn't realize that about them. I'm not sure I completely buy that Gunnar's age 20 is the same as Manny's age 18 because it's not just about play time but physical maturity as well. I filled out quite a bit from age 18 to age 20
Even so, I still think the comparison favors Machado. Do you think Gunnar has a better hit tool than Machado? -
5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
IMO Westburg's calling card is his middle of the order bat to go with his positional flexibility. If the O's lose a hitter Westburg or need more hitting he could get the call especially early in the season before Ortiz is ready.
I think MOO is looking at Westburg through some pretty rose-colored glasses. He'll hit at the MLB level, but if he was a top three hitter on my team I'd be wanting to improve my offense
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35 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:
I was only talking about prospect status, not who had a better MLB career. And I’m not sure Machado had a better hit tool or power than Gunnar at the same age. I would say Gunnar has the edge there, by the numbers, if nothing else. Machado is what we hope Gunnar can become. Machado was rushed, absolutely.
Maybe?
Machado hit .257 in A-A+ as an 18 year old. Gunnar hit .259 in rookie ball at 18.
At 19, Machado hit like .264 between AA and MLB. Gunnar lost that season to COVID, but I sort of doubt he hits that well at that level if he played.
Machado hit .283 in MLB as a 20-year-old, Gunnar hit .258 across A, A+ and AA at 20.
Machado's career BA is .282. Gunnar has beaten that number over a full season once.
Gunnar is going to hit just fine at the MLB level, but I'm betting his career BA is more like .260 compared to Machado's .280-ish. I think Gunnar could be Machado with the bat, or even a little better, but I don't think he comes close to Machado's career WAR because he's not a platinum glove 3B. -
Wieters put up video game numbers in AA as a catcher. He would 100% be the top prospect in baseball right now if he/his younger clone did that last year.
IIRC, Matusz was regarded as the top arm in the 2008 draft. He was pitching in the majors the year after he was drafted. His delivery had such a short stride, many evaluators thought he could add velocity and sit 94 if the O's lengthened his stride/altered his delivery. He had a plus curve, plus command, and a plus-plus changeup. The question mark was the fastball and like I said, there was reason to believe that could be improved. Sadly we know how that story went. He never gained velocity and eventually lost the feel for his changeup, but he 100% deserved the hype and would easily be top 5 in our system. I'd probably put 2009 Matusz behind only Gunnar, Rodriguez and probably Holliday
Britton I'm pretty sure was undervalued by everyone except Tony. Definitely a top 10 talent in a loaded system.
Arrieta, too, would be top 10, probably just outside the top 5.
I doubt anyone in this conversation has a better career than Manny Machado will. He was rushed to the majors before he could truly light up prospect charts, but he's basically Gunnar with a better glove/arm and hit tool, lesser speed, a lesser batting eye, and maybe a smidgeon less power. He'd probably be battling Gunnar and Rodriguez for the top spot in the system-
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I'd be pretty surprised if they brought Westburg up to DH. Isn't positional flexibility his calling card?
Rest looks pretty accurate, great job!-
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7 hours ago, Frobby said:
oWAR + dWAR does not = WAR. There is a positional adjustment to oWAR and dWAR that is double-counted if you simply add the two numbers.
That said, you are correct that Manny’s best rWAR year was his age 22 season. His rWAR total that year was 7.5, not 8.0. By fWAR, 2022 was Manny’s best year. In any event, I think it’s fair to say Manny’s still in his prime, based on his excellent 2022 campaign.
Thanks! Couldn't remember the first letter of the other WAR variant and assumed it was o + d
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webbrick's way off base here, but by oWAR + dWAR Machado's career high was 8.0 in his age 22 season and he had 7.4 last year.
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Glad he's mending well, but Vespi is probably the last reliever out of the pen in a good bullpen. I doubt he's integral to our success in any way, and if he's pitching a ton of innings it's likely because other relievers were hurt/ineffective
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4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
How far away is Cowser? 2-3 months?
If all goes well, probably
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Baseball Trade Values has this as pretty lopsided for the Orioles. They have Irvin at 15 million surplus value, Virbitsky at like 1.6 and Hernaiz at 2.7
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23 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
I like Voth, I'm hoping he continues to be a surprise for us this year after being a surprise last year. 3.04 ERA and a 3.96 FIP. His strikeout rate is a little low, 7.8 but he's been as a high as 9.3 in his career. 3:1 k/bb ratio.
I know, I know, I know, his stuff isn't elite but whatever, not everyone can have G-Rod stuff. If Voth can continue to do what he did last year, that's very valuable.
Exactly this. The underlying numbers suggest there's a good chance he's a lot better than a 6th starter. He's not going to be an ace or anything, but if the 6th best starter on my team had a 3.96 FIP last year, I'd be ecstatic
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FWIW, I'm 6'2". I was 6'2" at 14 and haven't grown taller since
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Well, he is a former high round Houston draft pick, so...
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7 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:
Anybody else here besides me thinks it’s a good chance Kjherstad will turn out to be the left handed power bat we need this year and be up by June?
He hasn't played above A ball. No way he's up by June. If he destroys minor league pitching, maybe he's up in late August/early September
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I dunno. To me I think he could be a pretty solid backup catcher in the majors pretty much right now. The Orioles (and maybe the rest of the league) seem to think he's organizational filler
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4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
Who's this "we"?
The message board as a whole. The Orioles seem to like Anthony Bemboom more and went out and got McCann for backup C. I'm sure McCann is better than Maverick, but the Orioles never seemed interested in playing him at the ML level
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Why do I get the feeling the Orioles don't like Maverick as much as we do?
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14 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:
My proposed trade idea.
Orioles Get: E.Cabrera (SP) and K.Watson (SS/2B)
Marlins Get: A.Santander (OF/DH) and R. Urias (3B)
It's dead even, according to this trade evaluator. The Marlins get an OF and 2B or 3B they can can immediately plug into their lineup (i.e., MLB ready talent). The Orioles get a highly touted SP prospect who's MLB ready and an interesting SS/2B to add to their minor league pipeline. Short term, we give Santander's slot to Cowser with Kjerstad as our fall back plan. Thoughts?
https://imgur.com/a/0q9ys1s (Screen shot of trade evaluator)
I'd make that trade
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7 hours ago, bpilktree said:
I am not sure I would trade Bradish straight up for Rogers.. Bradish pitched as good as Rogers last year and they are projected to have similar type seasons this seasons. If I am moving Bradish it is only for someone that has proven himself more then one good season. Bradish was very dominant once he got called back up with era in low 3’s and whip under 1.2. His stuff looks as good or better then everyone in our organization not named Rodriguez with more upside then Kremer imo.
The word 2021 in my quote is key. If Rogers put up another year in 2022 like he did in 2021, would you still not trade Bradish for him? I wouldn't want to trade Bradish for my hypothetical Rogers, but if the Marlins insisted he had to be part of the package, I'd do it.
We might be a little high on Bradish. Baseball Trade Values has him at 13.2 million surplus value. I'm personally a believer and think he's probably worth more like twice that, but I'm sure their approach is more robust than mine
They have the Cowser (25)/Westberg (15.6)/Povich (2.4)/Bradish (13.2) package as worth 53.6 million. I have to imagine Rogers would be worth at least that if last year looked like 2021. He's worth 36 million in spite of last year, which is pulling down his projections -
6 hours ago, Jammer7 said:
He did have one good season, 2021. The year after COVID. The league adjusted, he needs to adjust now.
I find him interesting, sure. You cited Corbin Burnes, a guy who has 3-4 good to excellent years and a CY Young. The longevity is what makes the packages very different for me.
As I said, I find him interesting. A guy we can improve upon, potentially, and have a much better result. Fly ball pitcher with a deep/tall LF wall would help.
My point was that guys with "one plus pitch" don't pitch seasons of ace level performance with the underlying numbers backing it up. Maybe the injuries messed with his stuff last year and he only had one plus pitch in 2022 and that's why he struggled, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't have more than one plus pitch when healthy.
And yeah, Burnes has the better track record by far. The tradeoff is you only get him for two years instead of four. Rogers has shown he is capable of pitching at a near Burnes level, but of course there's some risk
Jackson Holliday 2023
in Minors
Posted
Ryan Ripken says hi.