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ChosenOne21

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    There's a much better Trevor potentially available via trade with the Marlins

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21

    1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

    Much less of a track record? Burnes is recent CY Young winner. Not to be negative toward you bud, but comparing those 2 in any way is laughable. 

     

    Similarly, I wouldn't give them 3 high rated prospects and my best starter, debatable, coming off of a very rough season. In face Braddish is probably better by himself. 

     

    Oh, I wouldn't do that trade either. I'm just saying if Rogers was legitimately his 2021 season going forward, you'd have to part with at least what I said. He may not be as good as Burnes, but you get him for twice as long and probably less money.

    The Marlins are probably saying to the Orioles: Rogers is an incredible young pitcher who battled non-arm injuries last year that caused him to struggle. The year before he had a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts and he's cheap and under team control for a long time. I'm going to need a package that values him as a young, budding ace.

    The Orioles are probably saying to the Marlins: If we thought he was the pitcher he was last year, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Two years ago happened, but so did last year. He could be an ace going forward, or he could be backend of the rotation. We're going to price that risk into our offer or this deal isn't going to go anywhere.

    I would trade Hays, Westburg, Vavra for him in a heartbeat, though. The Marlins would be right to want more.

    FWIW, Baseball Trade Values says that deal is basically fair: Hays (19.5 mil) + Westburg (15.6 mil) + Vavra (2.7 mil) = 38 million surplus value, and Rogers is 36.5 million surplus value

    There's a much better Trevor potentially available via trade with the Marlins

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

    I do have an interest in Trevor Rogers, but he doesn’t have a good breaking ball, the fastball is a little above average. So, we want to give up what exactly for a guy with one plus pitch, which is a change up?

    He pitched 107 innings and had a 5.47 ERA and 4.36 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 in 2022, a down offensive year. In 2021, he pitched 133 innings and had a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP with 10.62 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9. His HR/9 went from .41  in 2021 to 1.26 in 2022. SG has a point, we do seem to over-value the Marlins’ starters. 

    Maybe we like the rawness of him. If they feel like they could teach him a better slider, then great. He had a lat strain at the end of 2022. I am not sure if he had other issues last year. He seems like a guy with good potential, and a more moderate package would be doable. I would wonder why they would trade him.

    So how did that guy pitch to a 2.64 ERA/2.52 FIP two years ago in 25 starts?

    There's a much better Trevor potentially available via trade with the Marlins

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    We're not getting 2021 Rogers for Hays, Westburg and Vavra. Especially if the only issue last year was the lat strain and there's reason to believe he's 2021 Rogers going forward. You'd have to offer them more like that proposed Corbin Burnes trade package of Cowser/Westburg/Povich/Bradish to get them to bite. And I'm not sure even that's enough. Rogers has 4 years of control left to Burnes's two, though with much less of a track record

    • Upvote 1

    MLB.com suggests Burnes to Os trade

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

    You have a definition of "star" that is tough to meet.  I think most would say Nick Markakis was a star player.  A player doesn't need to be a first-ballot HOFer to be considered a "star" IMO.

    Mid career, Nick Markakis was around a 3-win player. Solidly above average regular, but wasn't generally hearing his name brought up for awards. To me, you need to be more like 4-5 wins to be a "star." The kind of player who's a household name and gets lots of all-star votes, occasionally some down-ballot MVP votes.

    I don't think Cowser is going to be that kind of player, do you?

    MLB.com suggests Burnes to Os trade

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, TopGunnar said:

    I am sorry but I am not trading that much for a guy for 2 years. That’s foolish. I think people grossly under estimate Colton Cowser. He has star potential 

    I think his ceiling is probably mid-career Nick Markakis. Which is certainly valuable, but I'd hardly call him a star

    MLB.com suggests Burnes to Os trade

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21

    35 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

    I think counting on Bradish and Kremer to repeat or improve their performance next year is a mistake.  I’d much prefer an upgrade.  

    Bradish had a 3.28 ERA in the second half. From July on he was a pretty great pitcher. His FIP in the first half was 5.57, and in the second half it was 3.73. Funny enough, his xFIP was almost identical in the first and second half--4.02 and 4.01.

    I think it's incredibly likely Bradish's ERA next year is closer to 3.90 than it is to 4.90. There's a good chance he's closer to 2.90 than 4.90

    Kremer, yeah, he'll probably regress a little

    • Upvote 1

    MLB.com suggests Burnes to Os trade

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    I was going to come in here all like, Oh you won't trade Kyle Bradish, the same Kyle Bradish who had an ERA of 4.90

    And then I checked the stats and he had a 3.28 ERA in the second half. From July on he was a pretty great pitcher. His FIP in the first half was 5.57, and in the second half it was 3.73. Funny enough, his xFIP was almost identical in the first and second half--4.02 and 4.01.

    I see a guy who started the year off with some struggles, but who also got very unlucky. We have Bradish for six more years, and I think it's reasonable for him to have an ERA around 4 as a starter. But I also think there's upside from that, too. There were games in the second half where Bradish dazzled and was nearly unhittable.

    You don't trade six years of an average to above average starting pitcher lightly. As much as I like Burnes, I don't think I want Bradish and two top 100 prospects in the deal--at least without the ability to negotiate an extension for Burnes

    Goodbye Lewin Diaz

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

    The whole body of work is important, but I think he’s pretty good when he’s healthy. Might have been a little over-used at the end. I like the different look that he is compared to the others, but he is replaceable. 

    I'd certainly cut a few other pitchers before him, but I don't think he's earned a long leash

    • Like 1

    With the MLB additions are we a much better team than 2022?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    5 hours ago, e16bball said:

    Maybe if all you do is project him to duplicate last season’s line. Which seems a bit dubious, given that he’s a BA-powered offensive player who came in about 35 points below his career average BABIP (.268 compared to .303).

    The guy has averaged about 3 rWAR per 650 PAs over the last 5 years. You’d have to believe he’s absolutely cooked in order to project him for another 1 WAR season. 

    And before anyone comes by to read off his Baseball Savant page as proof that he’s collapsing at the age of 31, I think it’s important to note that in his 4 WAR 2021 season, his Statcast metrics (EV, barrels, hard hit %, etc) were all markedly similar to 2022. He can succeed with that batted ball profile — though he may need to bag the idea of trying to lift the ball and just be himself. I would assume Elias and Sig must have some ideas to get him back on track, given that they jumped all over the chance to get him here. Don’t think they’re throwing $8M at the guy unless they’re projecting some return to form.

     

    Good analysis. It's entirely possible Frazier is better than 1 WAR.

    Honestly, between injury, batted ball randomness, age related decline and sheer luck, that group of players could probably be anywhere from 0 to 6 WAR and I wouldn't fall out of my chair

    With the MLB additions are we a much better team than 2022?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    I think Gibson ends up slightly better pitching half his games at OPACY in front of better defense. My guess is he's worth 1-1.5 WAR

    Frazier is probably roughly 1 WAR if he plays most of the year

    I will be pretty surprised if McCann has negative WAR next year. I'm guessing he's more like 0.5 as a backup catcher

    You should probably also count Givens 0.8 WAR last year against either Vespi or Kriehbel's slight negative WAR.

    So we spent $28 million to be about 2.5 to 3.5 wins better than last year. That's roughly market rate for wins. It's not exciting, but eh, we seem improved a little

    • Upvote 1

    Catcher James McCann Acquired from Mets

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    I'm sure if his hitting doesn't improve we'll barely see him, if at all, at DH and 1B.

    I like the move. There's definite upside here as others have stated based on career history, xwOBA, etc. And he only costs us a million and some change over league minimum for the next two years.

    The two years thing is pretty key as well. If Handley or whoever is looking good and McCann bounces back and starts hitting like he did in Chicago, we might get a decent prospect offer for him at the deadline.

    At a minimum he's better than the Severions and Chirinoses of the world and we got him at below market rate

    • Upvote 2

    Orioles sign Adam Frazier

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Daddy-O's said:

    It seems to me that they have thrown in the towel on 2023. They have not signed one piece that makes them more competitive then they already are. That they must feel they will not be ready to compete until 2024, once Grayson  gets major league experience and Means is back.  Signing placeholders allows them to manipulate the clocks of several players and give them a slower introduction to the major leagues.  A number of people applauded last year, saying Elias is sticking to his plan.  I think this is more of the same, and it stinks.

    I think full seasons from Gunnar and Adley plus adding Grayson to the rotation gives us a really good chance to be better than we were last year. Is it enough? Maybe

    Maverick Handley 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    I think someone, somewhere posted something about how the Orioles weren't considering Maverick Handley as the MLB backup catcher out of spring training, and I can't for the life of me figure out why not. Can he really hit that much worse than Bemboom and Chirinos? People were saying Handley was the best defensive catcher in the system when ADLEY was still there. That's got to count for something, right?

    • Upvote 2
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