LookinUp

It's gonna be a long offseason. Elias has created a choose your own adventure book. He can pick one of about 20 different paths to go down. I personally wouldn't trade Ortiz for Scott, but if I were the Marlins, it's the type of deal I'd be looking for. For comparison, does anyone think they'd take Norby for Scott? I do not, but that's more in line with what I'd offer.

I've heard that they would lose their 3rd highest pick if they sign a guy who declined his QO.

I don't see the O's doing that because they would lose the pick they're about to gain when Gunnar wins ROY. It's too high to lose. I see them signing Ed Rod, if his personal issues are settled. A LH starter that doesn't cost a draft pick is ideal. As others mentioned, they could try to trade for one too, in which case that could be a higher upside arm. Absent that, I think we're looking at a Wacha type. His stuff plays perfectly for Oriole Park (reverse splits). Problem with him isn't ability, it's ALWAYS injuries.

I think we still undersell the potential of the O's to be purchased. Consistent with that, I think Elias is told to keep payroll low so Angelos can maximize the purchase price.

I know nothing, but my read from several posters on this board is that Jackson Holliday is a different level hitter. Yes, they mention his father, but @tntoriole isn't the only one who seems to think we have an elite prospect on our hands. I also don't know if those folks know anything about baseball. It seems like they do and they think Holliday is different, in a great way.

What's crazy about this is Holliday and Mayo could have impacts at or slightly below Adley and Gunnar. I think it takes them both a while to get there, but 2025 should be a blast.

So Mayo can only be promoted when Kjerstad has adjusted? And then Holliday waits for Mayo? Etc.? I don't think we have that luxury. What if they never adjust?

Sound good. But how?

Caveat...I'm talking about needing 1 for opening day. You can always try to add another at the trade deadline if the plan isn't working.

I'd be very satisfied if our choice for a game 4 starter was between a healthy Wells, Means or Kremer...or a further developed Hall, McDermott or Povich. Teams have even thrown worse out there than Irvin. I think we need 1 impact starter plus some bullpen help.

There's a Kremer discussion going on re: whether he's the guy you want to give the ball to in the playoffs. I think there's a similar discussion about Hays, Mountcastle and Mullins and ABs. I'd like the young guys (my list is Holliday, Mayo, Basallo and Ortiz) to get up here as soon as we can really justify it. For all but Basallo, you could justify either opening day or after the super 2. I want them here and acclimated by this year's playoffs, and hopefully booming by the 2025 playoffs. I get that we're managing a rolling window of contracts, but you'd love to see all of those guys hitting their strides at the same time as Adley, Gunnar, Westburg and Kjerstad. I think that core will hit in the playoffs. It should be about getting ready for that, and not about winning the division. Take the lumps early. Grow. Destroy the competition. Lol.

I feel like there's a profile of pitchers who age well. They do so with better command and better movement on their pitches. They pitch. I'm not sure Kremer will be that type of guy. He could have already peaked for sure, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to think he can still improve. Not at all.

I'll try to paraphrase what I really think you're saying/thinking... We don't need to sign a Gibson/Lyles guy because Kremer fits that profile. He's good, but should be slot into that backend of the rotation spot. We should be looking to add a solid top 3 pitcher. Someone who has the stuff to potentially dominate in the playoffs. That's what I think you're saying and I think it makes a lot of sense. If Bradish and GRod had one more dog running with them, coupled with some experience, we'd be tough to beat.

I think the case for Kremer is that he's been pretty darn good while he was pretty inexperienced. He's solidly in the middle of his career now. Does he keep getting better? Can he develop better secondaries, command/control? Or is he already on the downside stuff-wise? I tend to think that he can be useful for us for multiple years, even if it's through the bullpen. I'm banking on similar pretty good performance over a bunch of innings but hoping for continued growth. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'm not trading him unless it's part of a really good package.

A few thoughts: 1. I'd have Ortiz's value higher. Much higher. I could see him as 2 WAR this year, pretty easily. And he has 6 years of control. 2. I'd have Cowser's value lower (at least relative to Ortiz's). I just don't love Cowser. 3. I'd personally want the pitching prospect to be lower level than Povich. He's a really good 3rd piece. If he's the second piece, I'd be more on board. I'm thinking more of a guy who's far away but has some potential. 4. I wonder how the O's value Cease's FV. Many think he's peaked. I think he really fits the Verlander model, where he was going backwards in a bad organization (Detroit) but could possibly get back to dominant in a great org (Houston). It's just a guess though. They obviously know better.

I can see them moving on from Hays. I do not see them moving on from Hays with an internal option. I can see them moving on from Santander with an internal option. I do not see them moving on from Mullins unless they make a substantial external acquisition.

100% it indicates Santander would be the more likely player to be moved, IMO... Unless Elias makes several moves and replaces Hays via another deal/signing.

Ortiz, Cowser, (pitcher), and someone like Johnny Rhodes or maybe even Norby would make a ton of sense for both sides.

Does Bochy come back and try to go for 5? As much as I love the O's, what Bochy just did was incredible.

I would honestly like to go full SG mode with our outfield and make a couple of trades. Trade away Hays and Santander this year. Play Kjerstad/Cowser in right, maybe with Mayo or whatever. Trade for a starting left fielder who's a good defender and has more control. If we don't do that, I hold firm until Beavers is ready.

I don't believe we have good OF depth at all for one simple reason: defense. Who in our depth can play defense like Hays or Mullins? Nobody that can hit a lick. Cowser has an argument, but his defense wasn't good last year in Baltimore and his hitting is a major question. Do people here not realize that Elias is building an athletic team that plays plus defense yet? It's why Norby is down the list of infielders. It's why he kept Mateo and Urias. It's also why it's really hard to move on from Hays and Mullins. I think we can handle one solid-average outfielder. Our depth is full of those guys, which means we don't really have depth yet. Let's hope Beavers stays hot as a prospect. If so, he might fit in the second half or maybe September.

Love that someone comped him to Seager. Hate that he'll have to be paid like Seager, which means he might only be here 3-4 more years.

@Tony-OH I'm curious where you'd slot Povich, McDermott, S. Johnson and Gillies in with these position players. Did you focus on position players only or do you think those pitchers just aren't ready yet? My 2 cents is that they're just not quite ready yet even though they would have a chance to be as useful (or more) than Vavra and maybe Stowers. But I do like those 4 arms (and maybe a couple others) and think they're more 2nd half promotion types if things go well for them.

Absent a meteoric change in his OPS, this is highly unlikely. But if you told me they promoted him in September to be a 4th OF/pinch running guy in the playoffs, I'd believe that. The O's historically have been protective of their 40-man spots, but for a playoff run you might make that move.

I'm not sure this will really be a consideration. Like they're not just going to give these guys away for nothing. They might really try to find the right trades, but if they're not there, some will be in AAA longer than they should.