LookinUp

I don't know what I think, but I tend to agree with this based on first impressions. We'll see where they go today. I want pitching though and I want it to be good pitching.

I do have a random thought about this next pick... If the O's really do think they can squeeze value out of lesser heralded college arms, doesn't that mean they could target those arms for savings with other picks and still get a lot of value through their models? Seems to me that an over slot guy would go against their risk model, but that they could gain value in under slot guys. So maybe over slot works here.

IDK, it seems to conform pretty well with the Astros and the Rays, and maybe the Sox too. Seems different than the Padres, who are also smart. It's anyone's guess. I do think it does have something to do with how the draft falls. I'm sure if it fell a little differently the O's could have taken a pitcher yesterday.

It's fair to assume that the O's models right now are different than they were 365 days ago. They're always evolving. I guarantee that they want to accurately pick BPA and I guarantee they're continuously looking for new methods to do so.

Also noted what San Diego has done, which is draft pitching high. They're a major target team for a trade for pitching this July, FWIW.

I don't know where to find your post about the pitching pipeline come from the international group, but I liked it and think it deserves its own thread at some point. It's a valid theory for sure, though I still hope we go big on pitching today.

Look at the history of draft success outside of the first round and you'll probably find some hitters who got a lot better between when they were drafted and when they got to the majors. I don't mind the approach at all, with the massive caveat being that I'd prefer to focus on pitching (and understand that I don't really know the data behind that preference).

The hopeful fan/optimist should pay attention to this post. I don't know how true it is, but it at least gives room for hope. Some programs teach hitting better than others. Some teach pitching, defense, whatever. The O's might have seen a very talented kid who lost his way in a program that doesn't teach hitting very well. I don't know how I feel about this pick, but generally speaking I like the idea of targeting talented kids who went to programs that couldn't optimize their talent. The idea is you're buying low. We can only hope.

Wow. The Pirates did not take Porter.

I actually love the profile. It’s just incredible that we keep drafting corner outfielders.

Yeah. I’m thinking Hays might be a trade candidate too. Cowser for sure. All of them. There are so many.

An Ofer. Oh boy.

Right, but the Pirates have a history of doing it and Termarr was rumored to go under slot already.

Callis said Porter’s falling because someone in the 30’s has a big number agreement. Gotta figure it’s the Pirates, but I’d love it to be the O’s.

Adley switch hits. Mayo, Mountcastle, Westburg, maybe Hays, Norby. It’s kind of even.

Ugh

Snell, but I doubt a pitcher with his pedigree can be had for Santander straight up.

He wouldn’t at this point. I’d argue he has top 15 upside based on his old profile, but I think that’s very low probability, especially this year.

I love that this thread exists.

Tim Raines Jr.

That can happen, but it's really just trading a player with years left on his current contract. They could do the same with Mullins right now. I'm just not sure why you'd do that.

Sign and trades aren't a thing in MLB as far as I know. You either trade him now or you sign or lose him after the season.

Nope. I think that needs to happen. It's the Mancini thing that would be a problem. I said in some other thread that trading Mancini and moving Santander to mostly DH would be acceptable, but somewhat of a more bitter pill to swallow just because it's Mancini. In the middle of a pennant race, that would taste even worse.

If we're still within a couple/few games of the wild card by the end of the month, I do think it makes Elias' job harder. On the one hand, it pushes guys to the majors. That's not that hard. On the other hand, it makes him deviate from the dump for prospects plan that he has in place. It would be hard to watch this team trade Mancini if the replacement is essentially Stowers/Santander.