LookinUp

Did they accidentally repost last year's article?

I feel like McDermott's secondaries are far and away better than Kremer's.

If Holliday weren't in this org, we'd all be jumping up and down that Mayo should start the year on the roster and contend for the ROY award. You can't tell me that we're better with Urias than him. I get that it'll be tough having all of Holliday, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad graduate in the same year from a future contracts perspective, but I want Mayo on the ML roster on opening day. And while I think 2024 could be great for the Orioles, I think 2025 will be amazing.

1. I think the O's will want more development than you will want. Just because he could be a 2 WAR player doesn't mean that's the guy they want to promote. 2. I don't think he and Mullins will be an either/or option for the O's. My bet is they never get the deal they want for Mullins and we have .5-1.5 seasons with both on the 26 man roster.

I don't think you appreciate how different you are than others. I'm not saying you're wrong, but if I was to look up a player's WAR, I'd go to BBref and tell you what it said. I know there's two different versions, but I don't know the difference and my base assumption is that the difference wouldn't be very significant. Maybe that's wrong, but I don't think it's subterfuge to not provide a citation for a WAR stat.

Right. And I'm not saying Cowser will be the guy to really improve his profile. I'd put more money on Povich to be honest. Less on Fabian and Bradfield, though obviously I hope I'm wrong there. With that said, of everyone, I think Cowser almost gets the benefit of legit failure. That brings clarity. If he didn't get into the offseason with open eyes, I don't know who did. Hopefully that really benefits him because he, and all of the experts trying to help him, really should know what he has to work on.

It's useful seeing the profiles about all of these guys, both from Tony and even from the national guys. I do tend to look at them differently though, and Cowser's the perfect example why. He's a highly rated prospect that plays good, but not great, outfield defense, has a good eye, good exit velos, but problems with offspeed stuff, LHP and premium velocity. To me, I care more about his problems than his ranking. I think we make a mistake when we look at prospect write-ups as if they're the finished product. The real value I gain is in understanding the profile and then (hopefully) seeing improvements. Look at McDermott. Last year he was a 2-pitch reliever in Law's eyes. Now there's more and he may be a starter. Bradish was similar. Means also took a jump forward. I don't love Bradfield's profile, but I have hope. I don't even know why I'm writing this, lol. Maybe it's a pep talk to people who think Cowser really will only be a 4th OF/platoon guy. I'm not saying he won't. I'm just saying that just because it's what he looked like last year or the year before doesn't mean that's where he'll settle as a player. I'm a huge believer in player development in general, what can be accomplished in the offseason, and the Oriole's current approach, so I expect continued improvement from guys like Povich, maybe Cowser, etc., and for those prospect write-ups to be proven premature when they say that they'll not get closer to their ceilings.

I always get a kick out of national guys, or less informed local guys. I'm not saying that they never get a look or some intel that is better than yours, but it doesn't seem like it happens very often.

Yeah, I don’t think Manfred is raising the MASN issue out of the blue. I assume Angelos and Rubinstein entered into their agreement with a future state of TV rights contemplated. Basically, I’m not saying MASN won’t hold up an ownership change, I’m saying those negotiations are way farther along than the report indicates.

I think our payroll will look like a bell curve that starts well below the median payroll, goes up to a top 10 payroll, and then goes down some closer to the median. It won't be flat though. It'll be driven by talent. In other words, normal in a post Angelos world.

Yes, they were outliers, but they still weren't that valuable in the aggregate. I do think this type of player can play a massive role within the context of a team, but I don't see a path to a really high WAR career unless he hits the ball with authority. [Edit: As RZNJ points out, it's important to acknowledge that his BB rate/swing decisions seem better than those guys, which is great.]

I think they think of him as a starter, but that doesn’t mean he is a starter this year. I really think he could be our electric arm out of the bullpen.

I have a feeling that McDermott will be our DL Hall replacement, just not until July or August at least. He’s the guy who will miss bats.

I think the more accurate question is how Holliday’s timeline influenced the Os approach to trading Ortiz. Ortiz should never be a barrier to Holliday.

Very sarcastic, snarky, judgmental, know-it-all type of personality. Doesn't seem like he ever played a sport. He's kind of in a Jason LaCanfora category for me. Both were in DC. Didn't like them there either.

Even after the trade, there's a still a log jam of outfielders and infielders. Some guys are going to be really sick of Norfolk really soon (they already are).

Jerry Coleman basically prefaced his question by saying "Sorry, I wasn't listening to anything else you just said, but ..." and he then went on to ask questions that had already been asked and answered. That guy is really... nvm. If you can't say anything nice.

My takeaways from Elias (reinforced by Burnes): 1. No more big moves before the season unless some random opportunity arises. 2. No extension for Burnes. 3. This is a go for it in 2024 move.

I think a lot of things are possible. I know what he said last year, but it also appears there were genuine hurt feelings in Milwaukee. I'm holding out hope that Burnes really likes it in Baltimore and is willing to take a ton of money to stay here before hitting the market. He still gets a huge deal, but is willing to take it from us before the Yankees jump in.

I haven't read the whole thread, but I suspect a trade has been in the works for Burnes or Cease for weeks, but was possibly held up because of the business process of selling the team. I do think they would have taken on this payroll in 2024 regardless of whether JA sold the team or not. So I voted yes. I do think there's a small chance that Elias preferred a Burnes trade as his future Verlander, and only made it because there's a new owner. So I do think a trade taking on this payroll was going down either way, but it's possible that the new ownership moved it more towards Burnes than Cease.

I 100% think the O's couldn't make significant changes to payroll while they were finalizing this deal. I don't think that fact means Angelos is cheap. I just think it means that the major financials were settled on and shouldn't be changed in the middle of the process. I think that's standard operations during a massive deal like this.

I'm taking your side in this. The O's payroll should probably be between $150 and $200 million annually. I think the O's big problem will be in 4-5 years when those numbers will have to swell big time. They'll have to figure out how to make the books work at that point. On the other hand, maybe by then they'll be filling the stadium with a lot more fans, have an actual profitable TV rights deal and be regular recipients of playoff revenue. That could change everything. With all of this said, even extensions to Gunnar, Adley and Holliday are mostly going to be back loaded. Now is a perfect time to bring a guy like Burnes in, maybe front load the money a bit to entice him and have a less severe escalation in future payrolls, and count the wins.

Do it. You pay studs. You have to pay some studs if you want a team of studs. Some of that has to go to pitching. That's reality. Do it.

I'd be willing to go 5 or 6 years at 30 million per, accepting that 1-2 of those years could be washouts for injury.

This is true, but why not just sign the big arm now then? Maybe this is a one-time bridge year trade. If so, it is what it is, but I don't love it. I do love having an arm like Burnes and I'd be willing to overpay both in terms of trade price and contract. You have to pay a premium at the top end of the food chain and I think we should to keep him. But I don't like it as a 1-year approach.