LookinUp

Well, our view of the international program is basically happiness that we have one and are spending the money. On the other hand, we really don't have much information on the actual players. It would be nice if they were good. I'm reaching, but that would be nice new news to hear.

You have to wonder why an agent would float the O's if it was out of thin air. Wouldn't Elias just tell the Astros that they're not in on him? I'm not saying we are, but the whole situation doesn't really add up for me.

No it's not. You're just being obtuse. All things being equal, it's better to have more assets with which to purchase other assets than less assets with which to purchase other assets. That doesn't mean the poor guy can't purchase Mike Trout 28th overall, or whatever he was. But the richer guy also had that opportunity, plus others that the poor guy never gets. It doesn't excuse the poor guy stinking at his job, but it helps the same person in the richer circumstance. To deny that is asinine.

You're being obtuse on this one point. Take two equally smart twins. Give one $5 million and the other $10 million. Tell them to buy widgets. Which one is more likely to end up with the more valuable widget collection? If you argue it's equal, you're not very smart.

It's also a fact that they have more $ with which to go overslot, which means either we're able to go farther over slot (assume an upgrade in our eyes) and/or to go overslot more often (also assume an upgrade in our eyes). That doesn't mean you can't build a good system lower down. It just means it's harder to do.

So, putting the ML plan on a fun scale: 2018-2021: 1 (no fun) 2022: 3 2023: 6 2024+: 8-10 That seems like the goal, with the 8 in 2024 a bit of a long shot, IMO.

My point in this thread isn't to question what's known, it's to question the unknown part, which is at what pace is Elias going to do this stuff? There seems to be a walk before you jog. Jog before you run. Then, maybe, run approach. That will take quite a while.

Here are the options for how to build as I see them: Dodgers Model: Build a great farm system but don't be reliant on it. Add huge talent from the outside and let the farm fill the gaps/make trades. Astros Model: Build a great farm system, make big trades for big guys, see progress, add a couple of FA and win. Then resign your own. Rays Model: Build a great farm system, use it to build a good team. Trade guys at peak value. Resign very few. Acquire very few big FAs. If we're implementing more of the Rays model than any others, the window starts in something like 2025 where our guys are not just here, but also mature major leaguers. If we could do something closer to the Astros or even Dodgers model, we'd spend more sooner but have an actual chance to compete in 2023 and 2024. It seems to me like this is not an Astros plan, it's a Rays plan, and thus a 2025+ plan.

In the spirit of another thread taken astray by this discussion, and because Tony suggested it and I think it's an interesting topic, what actually is Elias' plan for the O's to be contenders? I see A LOT of minor leaguers, and a few major leaguers, that have already arrived and/or seem to be on the cusp. From the position side, those that are here or nearly here includes (5) guys: AR, Mountcastle, Mullins, Hays, and Stowers. The on the cusp really is targeting late this year or next for Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson, Cowser and Norby with Kjerstad a major wild card. That's 10-11 position guys who all have the potential to be really significant contributors with this year's #1 pick figuring to be 2+ years away. You could argue Vavra belongs on that list too. On the pitching side, it's pretty darn bare. Means, Rodriguez and Hall profile as good to great starters. Then you have the others that we really haven't seen enough of. Tyler Wells is here, Rom, Bradish, Lowther, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Wells, some guys I forget and some bullpen arms that have a chance to be decent. Is Elias trying to time this for 2023, which would likely result in a fair amount of promotions to Baltimore this year and other churn in the form of trades free agents to make a competitive roster? Is he just going to let this be an in house rebuild? That would mean at least 2024 or 2025 allowing for time for our guys to mature. It's just not clear to me what the plan is. I think that stinks. We got worked up over the Correa rumor because that meant a switch was being turned on. If that's not happening, when is it supposed to happen? At some point even the most patient fans, like me, need to see the go for it switch to be hit. I love the minors, but this is getting old.

I'm not sure what the rule is for 2022 because of the delay to start the season, but the O's would essentially have to only keep AR down for 15-16 days to gain the extra year. It's a no brainer to me. If he has a great year and they lose the extra year, so be it. I guess the alternative is betting on your guy. Bring him up now and assume he'll be top 2 in the voting so you get the pick. This is baseball. That's hard to do.

Dean Kremer.

I almost think they're just going to promote the better player between Westburg and Ortiz to play SS by August. I don't want half SS measures. We have that, plus, knocking on the door. Go big or stay away.

I believe he's had an OPS+ of something like 127 over the last 3 years. He's never lost his form. Not incredible, but he's been good for sure.

I read a tweet yesterday that was a screen capture of a DM from someone to Dan Connolly. He said Correa to the O's isn't happening in the DM. I can't find the tweet though.

I think I'm buying into what the O's are doing. These players come across as good people and there are a bunch of nuggets about how they're lucky to be here, or how the O's do stuff better, etc. This seems like it's becoming a destination org, if that's possible absent free agents.

In the athletic article Tony posted in another thread, they went into team building strategies. One strategy was that teams like the Dodgers who felt a decent probability to make this new 12 team playoff format would be less likely to go crazy in the offseason and more likely to do so at the deadline. Similarly, poorer teams like the Rays would be more likely to go for it at the deadline because of the profit windfall potential from playoff baseball. Add all of that together with fewer teams selling because you're still in a competitive position and you have a scenario where trade values could really go up at the deadline. So you hold guys now unless you get great deals. Fin.

Well-played. I love that stupid movie and scene! I know it was an extreme example. I like to illustrate absurdity with absurd examples. All that said, my opinion is that the rancor over this whole process has been misplaced. A lot of people freaked out, said nobody cares about the fans, are all greedy, etc., when it's just the way the whole process is meant to work. I actually think it worked great. Small delay, which was nothing more than a leverage game, in return for an agreement. And they actually create committees and commit to future negotiations regarding what's best for the game. Like, they weren't just talking about $$$ like everyone said. I'm happy with the way it went. Don't love the universal DH mostly because I'd love no DH in either league, but at least that rule creates a level playing field across baseball. Other than that, incremental improvements. For all of the hate on Manfred, I think this turned out just fine.

You know who had some of the largest cajones ever? The Japanese defending Okinawa during WWII. They just kept charging even though we just kept mowing them down. One company after another. Mowed down. Charging without a chance in hell. They had cajones, but their leaders weren't very smart. Just like it wouldn't be smart to leave a huge market to move a team to Buffalo because a few players can't get allowed into the country. Most of this complaining comes across as get off my lawn types of stuff. They're a business squeezing revenue out of every place they can. They're not leaving Toronto and they are putting patches on uniforms. So what? At least there a little less pressure to raise ticket prices on me.

You sell high. Given that: Mullins: Could possibly sell high now, or his value could skyrocket if he does it again. That's a bet on him. I'd consider trading now in a really good deal. Mancini: Production wise, he's sell low. However, the NL DH does create a market. Do an honest assessment of what you want and only pull the trigger if it returns actual value. I have a hard time believing that it would now, and figure he's more likely to be a guy I'd bet on rebounding and building more value by the trade deadline, so I'm holding him. Oh, and I'm not doing him a solid unless/until it gets to a point where it really is a sunk cost and you want to help him get to a contender. Santander: Same exact thing as Mancini. The only reason to move either now is if there's an unexpectedly strong offer for either or because you just have to shed salary.

I don't understand this. Say AR wins Rookie of the Year. Does this rule mean the O's get one less year of control? One more year of control? What if he comes up a month in, doesn't get the service time but still gets ROY? I don't see how this part gets teams to promote players sooner. Seems the opposite, so I'm just not understanding.

Was floated over last couple of days that the Yankees looked into Correa. That's exactly what I'd float when a deal was imminent if I was Correa's agent.

Apparently playing all of the games. Making up by filling in off days and playing DHers.

I know he's a high school guy, but you like that we have the #1 pick in a year where there's in theory some separation between him and the next guy, and you also like that he plays a premium position.