LookinUp

What we know. He's a big bonus kid who had great exit velocities in high school. He didn't hit last year in the FCL. He looks out of shape but apparently has a strong arm. He was held back to start this season. That doesn't inspire confidence, but there's a ton we don't know too, so to say it's concerning is correct. To say the story isn't written yet is also correct. We also know that Tony doesn't just look at box scores and come up with opinions. If someone gave him reason to think highly of Willems, he would probably be giving more benefit of the doubt. My assumption is nobody's come to Tony and said that this kid is very good. Just an assumption though.

I'll admit that I was *relatively* down on Henderson after last year. It wasn't that I didn't like him as a prospect, I just thought the hype was a little ahead of the player. I heard about defense issues and his bat last year was pretty streaky. Some of that coincided with promotions, so there was a valid excuse. Still, the profile questions were there for me. So what do we have now? A very young player in AA. A 3b who mostly likely will not be a SS. A plate approach that suddenly looks very mature. A legit power hitter who might excel in the dirt. That's a very nice profile because he's starting to answer the questions from last year. As much as I personally like Westburg, it looks like Henderson should probably be above him on prospect lists. At this rate he should be above Cowser too and the question will be between him and Mayo. Good problem to have.

Interesting comp just because of body type. Schwarber has become much more trim over the years. Hopefully that's how Willems matures too.

This all seriously changes my perception of Hernaiz. I thought he was a SS prospect but that seems really far fetched now. If he's just another OF prospect, the bat becomes critical. [Edit: and while I don't know if the rumors about Correa were true, it's beginning to make more and more sense that the O's trade for a true SS.]

Darn. Just posted this to a different thread. Fits better here...

This is crazy to me.

He was the player of the year in college. It's not like he never faced good competition. Either way, it's a dumb argument that's driven by dumb baseball rules instead of who should be on major league teams.

I assume he's in the process of trying to get more power into his swing and it's clearly going badly. This is worrisome.

One thing about eye witness scouting is it’s only as good as the player is that night. The entire point of the minors is player development. Doesn’t make live views wrong. It just means there’s likely more to the story, good or bad, for just about everyone. I’m not a scout, but I feel like I’d need many impressions on players before drawing good conclusions.

The glass half full version of this is maybe they're treating him like a major leaguer and not placing him at AAA just to check the AAA box. The half empty version is this could move very slow.

He did something with his helmet too after flipping the bat. Came across more as cocky than fun to me.

I don't like the showboating. At the ML level, maybe. Not my style. But he sure did crush that ball.

I'm kind of on board with my theory and kind of playing devil's advocate, so take this for what it's worth... Injury->rehab->flat ground->mound->simulated games->live competition My guess is live competition brings out competitive juices and adversity that they'd prefer to limit until after a player has built up strength. I've seen guys over throw, change mechanics, fight through long innings and generally be a different pitcher in live versus side work. It's a simple enough theory that they see risk in releasing them to live games before a certain build up because live games bring more arm stress for any number of reasons. Long story short, they want arm strength before adversity. They don't want to work on arm strength and through adversity simultaneously. Yes, it is conservative relative to what I've ever seen before. Doesn't mean it's wrong though.

If he's the best prospect since Bryce Harper we will pick him. I find that hard to believe, but I seriously doubt Elias skips out on that. A true elite CF is so valuable.

Oh, no doubt they're doing the bare minimum re: information and any plans for these players.

Just guessing, but it seems like the O's just don't value the experience of facing other teams as much as they value a controlled environment for their players. That doesn't necessarily mean their rehab and development isn't progressing, it means that it's not progressing in front of our eyes. For example, I think a huge goal for Hall and Baumler this year is to pitch through a full season. They don't care where. They just want to see the velo held through a certain number of pitches and they accomplish the competitive aspects of that by putting guys at the plate who are either on a short season team or in their own rehab. So I don't necessarily think you're wrong Tony, but I think you might be drawing the wrong conclusion as to how much these guys are actually doing in Sarasota versus what they'd be doing in Aberdeen or whatever.

This doesn't seem to be limited to pitchers though. They're taking it extra slow with all of these guys. I guess the goal is to prevent reinjury, but it's a REALLY slow process when someone gets injured in birdland.

Rehabbing in extended spring training per this article, which also has updates on AR, DL Hall and Kjerstad. https://www.masnsports.com/blog/checking-on-orioles-extended-spring-training

Yes. Either that or we're getting to the part of the rebuild where we're trading guys away. Could (should) be an interesting deadline and offseason on the trade front.

Makes even more sense that one or more gets traded when you consider that Norby's a really good prospect too, plus Mayo could be a 3B.

I'd guess this has more to do with how many pitches they start an inning with versus how many they end up with. Could also include factors such as air temperature.

For now. I think they're just letting him establish some success. Teams usually will try to make starters out of guys with that developmental profile if it looks like they have a decent chance. At least historically. Nowadays I'm not sure that's the priority the way teams use openers, piggy backs and long relief. Maybe it's a moot point and the "starter" designation just isn't that important.

Yeah. I'm saying one of those guys, probably Mateo IMO, fits in a Flaherty type of role whereas Vavra is more of a 4th OF plus sometimes 2B. His bat has value I think.

As of right now, Urias and Mateo are fighting with Vavra to eventually be utility guys, IMO. I like all three as depth guys.