LookinUp

All of the talk re: top prospects lists has been about the delta between Tony and the rest of folks on Mayo. Well, there's also a huge delta on Stowers. Likely bigger than that on Mayo. Tony's a big fan. Makes this a fun guy to follow. Shot in the dark, I say .740-.769.

Random names that come to mind for me. 1. Melvin Mora - guessing he's in the hall of fame. 2. Jeff Ballard 3. Dave Schmidt Guessing the latter two just don't deserve it, but they're part of my childhood, so I picked them. Nice pull on Steve Pearce for whoever did that. Could add Koji Uehara to that list too.

I'm still pretty sure I know what Mike Flanagan's user name (may he rest in peace) was on this site. I never really socialized it because I didn't want to out him and then with his death it felt best to just let it go. Or, I'm just wrong and it's not worth going there anyway. Either way, this place definitely had some wild days back then.

Not sure if you're kidding or not, so I'll respond just in case. Back in the days where the O's were rumored to sign Tiexiera, Tex coming to the Ravens game, trade Bedard for Kershaw, etc., this board had a poster named Belkast who said he was an insider. There were a couple of others too, but he's the one I remember talking about "wow offers" to Tiexiera, etc. He disappeared eventually. Those were wild times around here. Some dude would come and post a rumor and the board went crazy with it. Another guy who supposedly worked for a sports agent posted rumors too. I forget his username. If I remember, some of their stuff proved true. It's been so long though that I forget if there was any credibility at all in there. I feel like they did get some of the Bedard for Jones, Tillman + stuff correct.

Belkast just texted me a HUGE rumor! It's not too hard to figure out if you compare us to San Diego and Machado. Very similar model actually, and it's not like playing in a division with the Dodgers and Giants is exactly easy.

I listed 7 guys, in a scenario where we just signed a SS and only need 2 to complete the infield, several of which seem high probability to have some value just based on the fact they're already in AA. But point is taken...and the O's are in a better position to understand who will and won't succeed either way. Another reason to trade when their value is high.

And a year from now, 1-3 guys we already have in the system might have become prominent international bats that fit into this equation too. This is Elias's model.

Well, who's the odd man out? If they keep those 3 then the trade value seems to diminish afterwards, though I don't rule out Norby and Ortiz's trade value increasing this year. I could definitely see a scenario where we keep the more prominent 4 all and move Mayo to RF or 1B, Henderson to 3B, and leave Westburg at SS and Norby at 2B. Hard to complain if that happens, but now it gets you into what to do with Hays, Kjerstad, Cowser and Mullins. I'm probably forgetting folks too, but the bottom line is that drafting higher probability bats in lieu of pitching is likely a key to Elias's strategy to eventually trade for pitching. So don't get too attached is all I'm saying.

If the O's sign a short stop with: Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, Prieto and Vavra in the organization, you can bet that 2-4 from that list would be moved in a trade for pitching. All of those guys could play 2nd or 3rd, but only 2 can on a daily basis.

Keith Law is always controversial. All fans think he hates their teams. I think he wears that as a badge of honor. He's definitely not a consensus guy, and that's fine. Sometimes I wonder if he's marketing his product with controversial takes on purpose or whether he's just seeing things in his own light. I don't wonder that about Tony, for example. He has Mayo higher, but I don't believe for a second it's so more people come to look at his rankings. With Law, I suspect that's part of his schtick. Hopefully that's not too unfair to him.

Holy cow. That's bullish compared to every other national list for sure. I'm almost surprised Westburg isn't in there considering how much benefit of the doubt they seem to be giving everyone else.

I think this is a great point. Being the first one on Mayo, for example, will even add credibility.

1. Would not limit the number of teams. 2. Would not have a minor league that's affiliated to the teams. 3. Would not do revenue sharing. 4. Would be dominated by the wealthiest teams pretty much at all times. Professional sports, particularly in America, are not free market enterprises. They are managed markets often with explicit statutory rights not to let in competition. No sense in pretending otherwise. It's the system agreed to by owners, players and Congress.

Yup. Manfra and Tony Clark are just the latest [INSERT NAME HERE] to have the job. They're no different than most.

It's just the system. Where master and labor are organized, they make time limited deals. This is when they make the sausage. It's not about winning or losing. It's about getting as much as you can for your side. They hire highly paid people to assist. Is it disassociated from the fans? Yes. Is it a free market? No. Is there a better way absent some Drungo-like relegation scheme? Probably not.

It would be helpful if you change the font color on your post, fwiw.

I've got a contrarian take on all of this... It's normal. There's a time for business and there's a time for games. This is a time for business. It doesn't mean that they don't love the game. It doesn't mean that either side is greedier than the other. It doesn't mean they don't care about fans. It's just a scheduled time to divvy up billions of dollars. Why not sooner? Because it's a negotiation, not a playground game. Negotiations are often deadline driven. It's why the trade deadline is often craziest in the hours before it passes. And this isn't a matter of public safety like some master labor negotiations. It's about a game. So what's happening isn't indicative of anything in my opinion other than two parties handling their business on a very predictable timeline. It's quite possible that one holds out and is willing to lose some games, but I'd say unlikely this go around. If it does happen, the delay will be short.

Seems really likely to me that the last paragraph is the most likely. They'll take the best bat at the lowest price and try to load up with a couple of over slots later. I'd love them to take the top arm, but they're smarter than me.

Business 101. Get yourself out there.

So I'd say to you that the owners have a serious PR deficiency. It'd be easy enough to point to declining ticket sales and economic uncertainty and then point out that the players are looking for $100m more without offsets*. *That might not be true. Just my assumption.

I feel like he's in year 1 of the Adam Hall treatment. Hold him up there based on projections from his past, not his most recent showing. Then hope he returns to form. Not totally illogical, by the way.

I mean, the argument from both sides likely isn't whether they can come to a reasonable middle ground, it's whether the middle ground is reasonable. What I'm not seeing or hearing is what concessions players are offering, or the MLB's asking for, in return for this $100 million. Money's fungible. Is this the union trying to distribute more to younger players or just trying to get more and using younger players as an excuse?

You kinda buried the lede here wildcard. Baumann did pitch in 2020 and was shut down for injury. He never had surgery and his stuff was never the same last year as it was during his 2019 domination. It's not like I mind a 2.31 ERA, but context matters. He has to regain his stuff to raise up prospect rankings again. All of that said, I do allow for the possibility that what we saw last year in Baltimore was a spent arm and that he'll be better this year. I just have a terrible feeling that he'll be shut down in 2022 for TJ surgery and then miss a lot of 2023. There's a ton of risk with this guy.

In fairness, other teams have their own guys that they're dreaming on just like we do. All could end up much higher before being promoted, but every team has guys like that to some degree or another. Hopefully we're right about ours.

Still a minute and a few moderate extensions from: Catcher: Rutshman, backup Infield: Mountcastle, Mayo, Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby Outfield: Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers Pitching: Rodriguez, Hall, Means, Lowther, Bradish, Rom, T Wells, (sure need more to add here)