LookinUp

I'm not as plugged in lately, but I heard of this guy when I opened Orioles Talk a few minutes ago.

I'm not as vocal as SG, and I certainly don't think Wieters was a top level bust, but I was one person who saw his first game (in person) and was immediately shocked that his swing was so long. It really did look slow. His movements behind the plate were a different story, to me. I always loved his catch/throw ability. Just, with the bat, I expected a go to #3/4 hitter and instead saw a #6/7 hitter. Not a bust by any means, but like SG said, far from the generational talent we were led to believe we had. AR might actually be the same, but he has plate discipline on his side so right now I expect him to end up a better player than Wieters. Hopefully significantly so, I just don't know about the bat yet.

I saw something from Meoli (?) today that made it sound like Adam Hall started slow but has been coming on a bit. His fall in your power rankings this year has been under mentioned, IMO. He's almost an after thought. Hopefully it was just an extended slump and he's now righted the ship.

Yeah. Slow release. Dangerous throw. Would prefer it in the air from there or a slightly bigger hop. Not exactly a gun. Weird play all around.

If they picked Rocker, he'd slot between Rodriguez and Hall in terms of value. I'm cool with that.

I'm not trading Mancini unless there's real talent coming back. A legit future starter (position or P) needs to be part of that deal. Anything less underestimates the value Mancini would have this year to a contender and through the rest of his contract. He may not be Mike Trout, but he's a legit hitter. That has value to a contender. If Arcia closes the deal, fine, but that's all I care about him for. He's not that legit future starter that I'm looking for. He's a stop gap or an 8-9 hitting starter on a good team. My biggest takeaway from this thread is just how bad this team really is. We are terrible almost everywhere, particularly with Hays always injured.

You mean the Major Leagues. He may not be 100% baked, but he's certainly better than many ML catchers and anyone else in our org.

I could argue that I'd trade Fry just for a higher draft choice, if that's what I expected to receive. I could argue that I'd trade Fry for a nice return in the eyes of Elias and Sig. I can't argue to not trade Fry unless the return just isn't much of anything. In that case, sure, keep him.

If he's relying on cheating or is generally unable to compete at this level any longer, you just cut him. My IL idea is essentially a last-ditch effort to reset, reduce his tension and restart one more time. If he can't do that, cut the guy. I don't mean to be cold about it, but he doesn't deserve special treatment just because his name is Matt Harvey.

I interpret IL eligibility very liberally. He's either broken physically or mentally. Either way, he needs a reset. Might not work, but he's broken.

I"d DL Harvey. Give him a week or two off. Kind of start fresh without max effort/tension. Go to a rehab start or two and see if he can re-find it. Then cut him if/when he doesn't.

Agree. SG posted a .930 number, but I agree that’s a quite rich.

Right now? 13 people. https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average A .260 average would put him at 68th in MLB, so slightly worse than the 2nd average guy per team, on average. That's not a glowing batting average, which is what many expected from the #1 overall pick in the draft and #2 rated prospect. I'm ok with it. If his OPS ends up in the .900 range, that's closer to top 15-20 in the league. Paired with excellent D and that's very valuable.

And very valuable. That looks like a 50 hit tool with 60 power and 60-70 OBP to me. Add in great defense and it's very nice.

I guess that's true. I just don't think we should be dismissive of people like that BP writer.

Am I the only one on this board who questions AR's hit tool? Defense sounds great. Power is likely above a 50, probably a 60. Plate discipline looks great. But the hit tool? So far to me he looks like a guy who will have a high OPS driven by walks, HR and a relatively low batting average (e.g., .250 - .265). Add great defense and you have a very valuable player, but not necessarily that once in a generation guy. There's nothing wrong with that profile. It's just not a perfect profile.

If I'm Wells, or Elias, my bottom line is I need to figure out exactly what profile I have in my arsenal that works in the majors. If he doesn't go there with a good plan that he can execute, the stuff alone will get crushed. Heck, that happens with guys throwing mid-90's. Wells essentially has to pitch like a vet when he gets called up. In, out, up, down, pitching backwards, keeping people totally off balance. I'm not sure the stuff is comparable, but he basically needs to arrive able to pitch like a Mark Buehrle. It's a tall order.

He's not the #40 prospect for long if he's a legit prospect with the bat.

I think you probably are quite naive on this, and that spin rates are well-known performance indicators even well down into youth baseball too. Some of the top youth teams around are alleged to be shaving bats. Why not have a little stickum in the glove too? I bet they are doing that stuff. I'd bet money on it.

I'm sure advance scouts are focused on picking up any quirk from a pitcher, catcher, coach, etc. My son plays 11u and other parents were going out of their way to steal our signs and holler out to the kids. They weren't even that easy to steal, but that was their focus. Any human action that's repeated over and over can be decoded by people with time, video and inclination. Some are just much harder to identify in real time than others.

This is true. Plus, people talk. Maybe he's raking in Sarasota and they're just slow-playing his return to the grind to make sure he's fully healthy. Or maybe their just being cautious dropping him. You don't change the whole batting order based on a bad BP or a short slump. But at some point you have to make the change. They're likely just slow to do so, but I'd guess they will by mid/end of the season if there aren't glowing reports that he's actually showing out.

I think people are slightly missing the point the the discussion between arm action and grip. A tell is nothing but a difference that's visible/observable to the hitter. That can certainly be arm action. I'd argue that's most prevalent, but I can imagine a version of the grip, or cocking the wrist, being a tip. Hell, foot position, wind-up speed, a lot of things might be tells to someone who takes the time to observe. If you can see more or less of the ball, that's probably how you'd observe a different grip. I could certainly believe someone could see the difference between a palm ball and a 4-seam fastball by the grip. The first tell I ever picked up on was a face a kid made when he was throwing off speed.

No problem. I think I'd have read it as about Baumann if I wasn't aware his start wasn't like that. Was just clarifying.

To be clear, those aren’t stats from Baumann’s last start. Baum Ann went 3 innings. Gave up a run, couple hits and had 3 walks.

Baumler had TJ surgery, so I think it'll be a bit before you see him. Sounds like Kjerstad might not really play much this year either. I guess time will tell with him.