LookinUp

I think this idea might look better on paper than it does in real life. These guys need time at their position. Even the 50/50 split is tough. Making it 25/25/25/25 is out there from my perspective.

This would shift the competitive window back a bit in the hopes that we exceed Means' value with future value in the trade. It's a risk. The return would have to be very significant. I'm not saying no, but it would mean biting our lower lip essentially at least for another year.

I wasn't aware of this. It's a sneaky big deal. Aside from normal sample size issues, it really could mislead and I think generally argues for some more time before over reacting about performance.

I'll slow my roll on the kid that they're hyping like they are when he fails. We're about to see him in AAA. If he can't be ready 12 months from now than the hype isn't real. Baumann would have been AAA last year if it happened. My only concern with him is health. Again, if 12 months isn't in the cards than he's not the guy we think he is.

I think Elias has to be developing a plan to have Rodriguez, Hall, Baumann and Bradish on the ML team, and that plan shouldn't be terribly long. If it's well past service time next year for any of them for any reason other than injury/performance, I'll be angry. I love the rebuild, but the cream is rising.

I'm kind of like this for the whole team. Makes me wonder if there's some other issue with coaching or something. Just pure speculation, but Wells and Lowther should be doing very well. I assume more on the team are underperforming if they're 3-14, or whatever they are now. If there's a team wide performance problem, what affects that?

I accept the premise that the timing of the Machado trade was not in Dan's control. I think Dan's biggest problem was his ability to identify guys we want back. I feel like he didn't have an advanced eye for talent, which means he essentially was beholden to conventional wisdom and/or Buck's conventional wisdom, neither of which leads to a good GM. So my problem isn't that Dan made the Machado at the wrong time, it's that Dan was ever in charge of making the Machado trade. He was the wrong guy for the job, so we're stuck with it.

Is Bradish our new top pitching prospect after Grayson, Hall and Baumann? I ask not just because of his excellent results, but I think I've heard some genuine hype around him somewhere.

Lol. Just read through UMDTerrapins posts. Definitely following the minors closely. Good info.

I was talking about the OH user, but sure.

UMDTerrapins is in the running for minors MVP so far this year!

I'll just add this. If I were pitching against Gunnar, I'd bust him inside with fast balls until he showed he can turn on one. An extreme oppo or pull hitter typically has a weakness on the other side of the plate. Or at least often. Again, I have no idea if that's happening with Henderson. Just makes me wonder after seeing 4 bombs straight down the LF line.

That is my assumption too. I'm bullish on the kid, but a long swing path or various other feet/hip things (none of which I have seen reported) could be a part of a LF approach. They're more correctable, generally, than something like low velocity, but still could be issues. Hell, I'm just a guy on the internet watching a young LF kid hit 4 bombs down the LF line. It's odd, but hopefully not indicative of a swing issue that presents itself against better competition.

Whether the swing is adaptable to better stuff/velocity. Love the natural power and ability to go oppo in general, but is he late often?

Anyone know if he's also pulling the ball? I love a good oppo shot, but everything I've seen is oppo. Makes me wonder.

Interesting dichotomy between your Davis take and your Pujols take. I for one don't think Davis is a good guy at all. I think he cheated to get his contract, signed it under false pretenses as it relates to future expectations and then didn't do whatever he was doing to live up to it. He's a fraud who stole money and got away with it because the O's were in on the game and took a gamble on a shyster. Pujols may also be a fraud. I've thought he was on PEDs his whole career, but is there any real evidence of that or some kind of lying about age?

So much for the 2nd half resurgence.

The smart thing is to give it time before you make changes unless something notable in the profile changes. After all, if Wells comes out throwing 95, we have a different prospect on our hands. The internet thing is to move guys a few spots up and down based on hot/cold small samples. In the end, it'll come out in the wash. By that standard, we're looking at Grayson, Gunnar, Hall, AR ...

I suspect it's actually two things their managing. 1, building up arm strength and 2, total usage. I'm not sure what the data says on either, but I believe the standard is to take a significant break from throwing in the offseason for recovery, like 8 full weeks, then to limit pitches earlier in a season while arm strength is re-building. I suspect that he jumped that curve pretty significantly with 113 and that Elias might want to just build in extra recovery time. That said, could be an injury/soreness too. I'm just spitballing.

There is likely a statistical answer to this and that answer is likely to have something to do with the profile of the player (e.g., velocity, age, LD% or whatever) and the parameters of what you consider successful. Alex Wells is a great example. Very successful at AA but not the profile of ML success. Not impossible, but not the profile without velocity. It happens with hitters too. I forget his name, but we had a guy who won the triple crown (I think) in Bowie about 10 years ago. He was old, which is part of his profile, and likely had other profile things because he wasn't really a prospect even at that time. Short answer is that success isn't a bad thing, but it's not a guarantee. Alternatively, it's probably hard to play at any level without success and then go to the majors and have success unless you're talking about very small sample sizes.

I will play devil's advocate on Tillman's behalf, understanding fully that there's a 99.4% chance that this comeback will go nowhere. Let's say that Tillman has been taking care of himself for most of the last two-three years. By that I mean he got whatever surgeries he needed, went through a full rehab program and got in shape. Let's say also that Tillman went to DriveLine or some such program like a million other guys, most notably Harvey. Let's say that he's throwing with velocity again. That's his path. That's also his proof. Video. Metrics. Real proof beyond some simulated game in Sarasota. If Tillman took that path, I say there's a perfectly reasonable chance that the O's of all teams would try to find a place for him. He's a sign and flip type of guy. Maybe not now, but maybe next year? He'd essentially be trying what Harvey is doing now. Why would the O's not find a place for that guy? All of that said, I highly doubt Tillman has done all or most of that stuff to prepare himself. Maybe he has, but I haven't read it. That's the type of preparation I'd want to see if I were the O's or any MLB team. I wouldn't invest a dime in him if he's at the start of that process, for example. He should do it on his own and show up ready to kick ass. Teams aren't going to hold a 33 year old injured guy's hand through a reclamation project. It's just not worth it.

This is becoming the “what did he do tonight thread.” Turning into must see.

Mound: 62' Bases: 88' Fences: + 10% Speed = more important. Game = more fun.

Rom's had a lot of success with lower velocity, but his prospect status hasn't reflected it because there's a big question of whether his stuff will play at the upper/ML levels. If he's able to hold or slightly uptick that velo from 92-94, we have a real prospect on our hands here.

Rightly or wrongly, new regimes like to play/promote their own guys. Hall has a bit of an uphill battle on that alone, but production will force their hand if it's there.