emmett16
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Posts posted by emmett16
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1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:
We finally agree on something! lol
Alcantara is the very best pitcher that we can acquire and is easily one of the best in the sport. Yes I admit, better than Cease...lol
I am for it or really for any acquisition of front of the rotation starter. A guy like him will make all the difference in October, this year, next year, year after that, etc. Pitching is what matters most in the Fall. And we are going to have to find more of it than simply Grayson and hoping for Means.
A pitcher like Alcantara puts us squarely in the realistic World Series contenders category. Right now with our starting staff being what it is, we are more pretenders. I just don't believe in the talent of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson enough to think that it is reasonable to believe that they can help us win postseason games. And I don't believe in Hall as a starting pitcher at the Major League level at all. I believe that Hall is easily our most overrated prospect. He will be 25 this season and still hasn't figured out how to be successful at AAA. Nothing about him expect for his high strikeout rate suggest anything to like about him as a starter. Go back to pre-injury and look at what Grayson was doing at AAA compared to what Hall has ever done there, it's not even close!
I think O's can make a legit run with SP1 acquisition, GRod, and Means in playoffs. I don't want a meh #2 or #3 type guy for our second tier prospects, I want a bonified big league #1 who can start all the playoff series and give us a solid chance to go up 1-0 before turning the ball over to ROY GRod.
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5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Ok now we are cooking! The problem is that neither may be available. Burnes almost assuredly will not be, as MIL looks to be in it and said they are not moving guys if they are. Alcantara would be my dream and he doesn't need to be extended as he is already signed through 2027 at an extremely team friendly rate.
But the issue with that is that because of that, it will cost more. For Alcantara, the conversation would start with us having to part with Gunnar or Holiday, plus 3 other top 100 guys.
Now I would be okay with letting one of those 2 go because of how similar they are and because we have so much infield prospect depth. But it is still a steep cost.
I'd be Ok with that price. I'd give up either Gunnar or Holiday if it got me Alcantara. Burnes was my guy going into the season, but as mentioned with MIL hot start he might not be available.
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1 hour ago, HandsomeQuack said:
Looking at his stats re: swing decisions, he only swings at 19.8% of pitches outside the zone (league average 31.5%), but when he does swing on those pitches he only makes contact 39.5% of the time (league average 62.2%). In his time in the bigs last year, he made contact on 60.8% of outside-the-zone swings.
Additionally, the first pitch of his PAs is a strike 67.4% of the time (league average 60.5%). I wonder how much of that is the book being out on him that he won't swing, and as a result he falls behind 0-1 a lot.
It's been such a weird start for him. With a little less swing-and-miss he could be in the .250/.400/.500 neighborhood. But he takes so many pitches and he can't hit with 2 strikes.
Great post. I think that's very likely part of what's going on. Ps don't have to be as precise with the first pitch and they are getting ahead 0-1. Might be time for Gunnar to do some extra advanced scouting work and find a couple guys to ambush.
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24 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Ok, I'm sorry. Got it now. You are for trading for a top of the rotation starter, just not Cease. Understood.
If costs wasn't a factor, do you like Eduardo Rodriguez more than Dylan Cease as a top end talent? What do you think about a guy like Luzardo from MIA assuming that Alcantara is unavailable or the cost is too much?
I want a legit stud (someone like Burnes or Alcantara) that we could trade for and extend. I know it would cost a ton, but I'd be willing to give up what was needed.
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4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
If they are in the pen, who is starting besides Grayson? In a 4 game series and with this being Grayson's rookie year and trying to preserve innings, I can't see him starting more than 2 games in any series. And of course, we are talking about the scenario where he continues to adjust to Big League pitching and grow into the kind of pitcher that is worthy of post season starts.
2 hours ago, emmett16 said:If we make it the playoffs I’d be fine rolling with SP1 acquisition, GRod, & Means with Bradish & Wells in pen.
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7 minutes ago, deward said:
I'm not as high (yet) on Povich as some. He can clearly miss bats, which is good, but his command is iffy and he hasn't exactly dominated at AA yet (last start excepted). I can see the appeal, but the results aren't entirely there so far.
I’m a sucker for tall lefties with multiple breaking pitches who pitch backwards. I’ve seen him in starts where he has pinpoint control with multiple off-speed pitches and the batters are so off balanced because they have no clue what’s coming. The 93-94 FB plays like 98-99.
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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:
Some of why for enjoying baseball this season I'll continue to talk about Shohei Ohtani in a matter of fact tone as a player acquisition target is his 2023 $$$/WAR profile.
You can navigate the fringes of MLB performers and elevate your Club's replacement level if you don't purposely neglect it, but putting the championship key distance between average performance and excellence is another animal.
I believe if dealt Ohtani will return less than Westburg, Santander and Irvin, should Minasian not want to punt on '24 Trout and '23 Ohtani asks to sever his relationship with Arte Moreno. I know in '24 I might have to take my chances Cade Povich or John Means can get those guys out chasing an AL6 or better result.
In all the media praise baths for the Rays last month, one of the points is they were in on Freddie Freeman, and they've been quietly in on other top performers. Even the hedge fund managers know there can be value at the top of the talent curve, while they cold shoulder almost all the world's Jameson Taillons and John Meanses.
For this thread, should we look back at closed books like '22 Jordan Lyles? Cesar Valdez was fun for a minute.
I debated putting Lyles up there. The success he had last year after a down 2021 and how is performing currently is definitely something to take note of.
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1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:
That's a lot of pressure to put on Grayson in his rookie year and a lot of innings to put on his arm if we make a deep run. Means is a lot of hope to put on a pitcher coming off such a serious arm injury.
And Wells is better than Bradish, so I don't see the logic there. I struggle with understanding the logic of what you have seen at the Major League level from Bradish to have reasonable expectations that he will be successful against the best teams in October.
You really envision a reality where Kyle Bradish wins us a game in the World Series? I just can't see that.
I said Bradish & Wells in the Pen. I would not want either to start a playoff game. Bradish stuff would be electric out of pen. Wells would be my long man if a SP fell on his face.
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1 hour ago, deward said:
The problem with living in the margins is you sometimes get marginal results. How many of those guys do you have full confidence in? Wells looks good, Cano and Coluombe look great (but so did Perez last year), Gibson should at least be reliable. Beyond that, I'm not sure. Last year's success was heavily fueled by unexpectedly good results from Bradish, Kremer, Voth, and Perez. Now all four are struggling and it's not clear yet if they'll be able to recapture what they found in 2022. Irvin couldn't make it through April without getting demoted. I fear that the bullpen will be worn out by June if the starters can't get their act together once they start facing better teams.
I agree on all points. Only guy I’m really high on and think could be a #3+ maybe #2 is Cade Povich. Happy with the Bradish and Wells acquisitions and think they are solid MLB contributors for 162, but would not be excited about either starting a playoff game
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17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Yes I know. But the problem is (or maybe not problem more of a reality) the CHI Sox know this too. In your list of prospects I don't see 1 top 50 guy. I highly doubt that Cease can be had for no top 50 prospects. What makes you believe that the sport values Cease any less (or should I say) that much less than Soto?
Also, when you are this prospect rich, I have a hard time in terms of understanding things like "paying too much". No matter what we gave up non-Grayson Rodriguez or Adley (which I am very confident that they are non-starters) for every other prospect, we have something similar/redundant. Even with the top end guys like Gunnar or Holiday, we have the other one who is very similar (5-tool, left handing hitting SS with elite plate discipline). Honestly, we have so much org talent, there are not even 2 trades for any player in the sport (who is available) that would break us.
I hope we can get him without having to give up Gunnar. But if that is the cost to add a #1, I think that you have to seriously consider it because we are not winning anything with this pitching staff as currently constructed. We have hopes in Grayson (and rightfully so because the talent is tremendous, a solid Wells, and what? Hopes, dreams, and Means.
I want no part of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting a postseason game. And DL Hall is a pipe dream. He can't even figure out how to consistently have good starts in AAA and will be 25 this season. He way more project than prospect IMO.
Cease is a piece that we don't have now, but will need in order to win in the Fall. And you get him for 3 postseasons. It doesn't have to be Cease, it can be someone like Luzardo from MIA (if available). But we are going to need someone to slide in at the top of the rotation in order to give us a legit shot to compete for a World Series. And given the way the 3rd Wild Card has opened things there are not going to be too many top guys available. Cease will be one.
If we make it the playoffs I’d be fine rolling with SP1 acquisition, GRod, & Means with Bradish & Wells in pen.
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23 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:
I wonder if Westburg is a better fit at 1B, seems like a strong dude. Seems he's an average defender at 3B/2B/SS.
He’s 6’2” - I think he’s be fine but that’s selling his D short. He can play 2b/ss/3B. I’d be fine if he was the super IF utility playing all over the IF but I think he loses a little bit of value just playing 1b. They want to showcase him as a MLB SS.
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19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
No superstars, no guys who are true #1s but it's a collection of guys that have done very well overall.
I guess I’m curious what he could get for legit assets, whether that be a ton of cash or blue chip prospects. It looks like they have done well w/o giving up much. I think that’s my main question for this org - can they obtain top flight pitching talent.
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2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Interestingly, Rodriguez appears to have taken a little bit off velocity wise for the increased command. It will be interesting to see if that's what he did r if his velocity was just a bit down for whatever reason.
I wonder if he wasn’t getting movement on his off-speed deliveries due overthrowing them a bit and consciously decided to dial everything down to get his movement & break back.
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On 4/26/2023 at 3:57 PM, RZNJ said:
He does and he probably has more than most but if you’ve noticed, most of our prospects are good at going oppo for homers. Mayo is about the only one I can think of who hasn’t incorporated it yet.
Of the newer guys Fabian seems like pull power only as well.
Mayos arms are so long he can pull a pitch with power 1-2 balls off the plate. I think he goes up there (is told) to hit ball in air to pull side. I think his specific plan is different than others in the system.
Back to Westburg. He is a thick dude made of pure muscle. He is strong as a ox.
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On 5/1/2023 at 7:51 AM, RZNJ said:
Trey Mancini got us Seth Johnson and Chayse McDermott. I'm good to go with something like that. Mountcastle's type doesn't carry a ton of value even if he had an .800 OPS but he was something like .729 last year and in danger of being worse. His OPS has dropped significantly each of his 3 years in the league and this leopard shows no signs of changing his spots. The biggest issue is no true 1B to replace him.
I think Kjerstad will be ready by the break.
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Do we get Lyles? Guarantee he’ll be up for a game v. Former employer. He’s been struggling big time.
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Does Hall, Stowers, Westburg net Cease? 18 years of service for 3. Is that ann on overpay? Underpay? I have no idea on things like this and seldom chime in. Would very much like, however, a legit #1.
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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Also Coulombe - bought from Twins
I’ll add those names to OP
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3 minutes ago, waroriole said:
EdRod was traded in 2014. I don’t think anyone is left.
I feel very old all the sudden.
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9 hours ago, pdiddy said:
On the Verge pod discussed the Sox yesterday. Agree with Cease as a target but the price is as always the issue. Lynn wouldn’t be a target for me - once you fall over the cliff it’s hard to climb back up.
They also mentioned Ed Rod - would definitely have interest there but I wonder what the relationship is between him and the org after trading him?
Players know they are playing for 30 teams. IMO being traded is a sign that you have value and are wanted and shouldn’t take pride in that. Ed Rod still has some pals on the team from his time in Bal. I imagine he’d be thrilled to join Orioles. He’d be a nice target.
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I Wanted to start a thread on pitchers Elias has acquired via trade, rule 5, & other non-drafted players. It’s been mentioned a ton that he has gone very light on pitchers in the draft. Use this thread to discuss non-drafted pitchers acquired by Elias. Not only successes but the duds. A lot is spoken about the stockpile of IF & OF MLB ready talent and the pipeline coming up. At first glance it looks they have done a pretty good job of building a pitching pipeline full of MLB level talent from spare parts.
Kyle Bradish - Bundy trade - MLB SP
Tyler Wells - rule V - MLB SP
Cionel Perez- waiver - MLB RP
Ryan Baker - waiver - MLB RP
Yenier Cano - Lopez trade - MLB RP
Voth- waiver claim - MLB RP
Coluombe - cash purchase
Givens - FA - IL
Gibson - FA - MLB
Cole Irvin - Hernaiz trade - AAA
Cade Povich - Lopez Trade - AA
Chayce McDermott - Mancini Trade - AA
Seth Johnson - Lopez trade - IL
Now, no blockbuster trade netting a future SP1 or SP2 has been completed yet, but I’d say they’ve done a good job living in the margins and finding talent that fits their system.
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Just now, Mooreisbetter27 said:
I think you’re thinking of Logan Gillespie.
Connor Gillispie is in Bowie.
Correct. Been looking through all Elias pitching draftees & acquisitions to see how they’ve done. Don’t think anyone he’s drafted has made the show yet. Got Connor and Logan confused
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Is he the first pitcher Elias has drafted to make it to MLB?
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6BB & 12K on season for a .5bb/k rate. Still holding strong.
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We really are in a monster of a division
in Orioles Talk
Posted
And less travel for clubs.