emmett16
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Posts posted by emmett16
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Lotta hard contact. Loud loud loud
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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Look at Hyder pulling those strings!
And Hays pullin’ those hammys. Please no.
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Hays en fuego. And….Stowers get ready. Hays looks like he tweaked something
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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:
BTW, a little credit for Vavra at 2B. for a guy they don't seem to like there, he went up and got that high throw and had enough in the throw to turn.
Sliding his foot just a tiny bit mid-throw was darn impressive. Wish he had a better arm. Felt like an eternity while that ball was in the air.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
It may be "his call" on the final lineup. But Hyde is not rocking the boat and going against the "advanced scouting" and "wizards" unless someone is injured.
Not to mention, you don’t want to make your boss angry!
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Yeah, no way he could do better than .544 OPS. lol
There was plenty of PAs available for him without taking someone's job. Did she say why they never gave him any PAs against left-handed pitching after hitting them hard his whole career? What wizardry decides he should never get PAs against lefties but Henderson should?
These guys are hooked up to machines/computers for every single thing they do. They know exactly how hard/how often they hit every pitch thrown at them from every speed from all conceivable angles.
Why he didn’t get PAs when available is a very valid question, the ABs were there.
I think it goes back to what she said about being 1. Mentally ready 2. Physically prepared and how they will perform when thrown to the fire. They want them to have success as soon as possible once they hit the majors.
These guys go throw psych tests as well and the FO has a mental make-up profile for all the players. Everyone is just a little bit different, can handle failure, can handle success differently.
Not saying what they are doing is right or wrong, just putting that info out there.
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8 minutes ago, jabba72 said:
She clearly stated Mateo had success in AAA and was blocked by playing on a good team in San Diego. The O's apparently were waiting to pounce on him.
Correct. Was listening while working first time through. Missed that. Just listened again. Thanks for pointing that out.
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3 hours ago, btdart20 said:
"The science that we were taught takes us but a distance towards the truth." - Dana Scully
Is it a certainty that a player HAS to show power/ISO in order to maintain a value-add OBP? Is it 100% positive correlation? Or could there be other variables?
An industry thought leaders says "there’s no single definition for what it (a good hit tool) encompasses, most in the industry will lean on some combination of raw tools, contact rate, and strikeout avoidance to grade out players. This approach may risk viewing all contact as good contact, as well as overlapping with the power tool before raw strength is considered."
Smash Factor: A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing the Hit Tool (drivelinebaseball.com)
Here are a few current guys bucking the EV/HH% trends. I doubt it's representative. But they are good case studies. And could provide some type of starting point for the ISO/OBP ratio study that require smarter minds than mine!
Adam Frazier - career .120 ISO - I actually think one reason Adam Frazier was brought in was specifically to study him more closely. The SigBot sprung a sprocket thinking about infusing Frazier's hit tool into Basallo!
Luis Arraez - career .099 ISO.
Jeff McNeil - career .149 ISO (but his recent 3 year trend is around .110). First 3 years was .160+. (I didn't do the math, just guessing. Could be higher.) It's like he was trying to fit a mold but ultimately broke it being who he is. McNeil's approach has been studied probably because his success bucking the trend.
Jeff McNeil, Secret Strike Zone Wizard | FanGraphs Baseball
Jeff McNeil Hit His Way to a Four-Year Extension | FanGraphs Baseball
There actually is a tool and metric to determine a hitters ability. It’s called smash factor. You will be hearing a lot about this in the near future. Imagine w/in a year or so there will be smash factor leader boards available to Public.
There is also a direct correlation between bat speed/EV & OBACON. players with the higher EVs & smash factors can very easily determine future production in very few ABs.
No one is publishing smash factor - you can figure it out, however, with a certain amount of ABs and results and a lot of tedious work.
Stowers is so intriguing because he has the bat speed & the EV. His smash factor is not public data (unless you crunch your own numbers)
Players with lower EVs can have success but their high-end OBACON comes down and lowers their ceilings.
it also takes a lot more ABs to determine future production from the low EV players. They very well might be terrific hitters and succeed like an Arraez, but you can’t predict that with just a few ABs as you can with the Stowers type player.
This may be why the guys like Vavra & McKenna got first dibs, because they need more ABs to see what they are. I’m sure the Os FO knows pretty damn well what Stowers & Westburg are likely to produce.
I’m going to go back into one of my course trainings to dig up some graphs, visuals and links on the above to help further explain (I’m not always good with words
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57 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:
I agree with nearly all of that. Great post!
I value flexibility as well, except when it comes to certain positions. The SS needs to be THE SS, especially when he is as good as Mateo. He is different there than anyone else, and it means something to him. I can see it in the way that he plays SS over other places. He feels like he owns it. I also think Catcher is an obvious one, especially when you have Adley. You leave those guys there. You build a strong team up the middle, IMHO. And those two positions, in particular.
When it comes to Gunnar, leaving him at 3B for now should help him get more comfortable and stop pressing so much. Take some pressure off him and let him settle down, slow the game down. He is nowhere near the SS that Mateo is, not from what I have seen. The range is the biggest thing, but it also looks like the game is a little fast for him there right now.
We can fill in all around those guys, as need be, with those guys with the flexibility you speak of. Anyone else in those two positions make us a weaker team, without question. Those two stay put as much as you can, while giving them rest when you can to keep them as fresh as possible.
I tend to agree with that because SS is the most physically demanding (non-C) position on the field. CF is #2. However, with that said the SS is always going to be the best athlete on the field. IMO any MLB SS should also be able to play CF. Yes - that’s very demanding, but that’s where rest science comes into play. The Robin Yount stud CF/stud SS would be a close second marketing freak show to the Ohtani P/DH. That’s elite athleticism on par with Jordan level stuff and I think it’s only good for Major League Baseball as a brand
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Those thoughts on defensive flexibility and resting players (due to back ground workload we don’t see) sound familiar
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On 6/22/2022 at 7:25 AM, emmett16 said:
He’s 24 years old & 171 days. He has hammered AAA pitching. When he doesn’t get a hit (59% of which are for extra bases) he makes a loud out. Yes, he’s striking out 24% of the time and that likely increases in MLB, but that is part of his game. He has actually improved his strikeout rate from last years 32% while at a higher level. He has done all he needs to do in AAA. Only reason he isn’t on the MLB club is because there is no where for him to play.
@Tony-OH does this sound like a Stowers Hater?
I have been calling for his promotion for almost a year now.
I am nervous, however, that he will struggle with MLB pitching. But as you said, he needs consistent ABs and some patience.
Only one way to find out. Let the man play!
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12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Well, no one can ever be SURE a minor league player will do well in the show, but minor league stats tend to be a good indicator, particularly AAA stats. On top of it all, I just like the fact that he hits the ball very hard, can go the other way, can drive the ball the other way, and can hit pitchers that are right and left handed with no drop off.
Your observations are not wrong, but it's hard to take too much out of his major league stats because he rarely played consistently and never against lefties where he's had success, success that I think helps him also hitting right-handers.
The thing is with Stowers is at times he will look very bad, sometimes several PAs in a row, and just when a pitcher thinks they can beat him inside he turns on one for about 430 feet. I've just seen him do it so many times in the minors.
I agree, he's adequate at best defensively, but I think he would be a fine fit for Camden RF.
So ultimately, do I think he's a future All-Star? Probably not. Do I think he can be league average 2-4 WIN major league outfielder, absolutely. He just needs someone willing to send him out there everyday.
Have been to a few games where he Ks 2 or 3 times, you wonder if he’s had his eyes checked recently and then BOOM 440 LCF bomb. I think this is what excites me the most, he seems to make adjustments and does have good contact #s inside the zone. He chases a good bit for someone who walks so much, but I think his BBS are a function of the power. My question is cam he get to that power against MLB caliber pitchers to warrant to respect that produce the walks as well. He’s young and I do think he’ll figure it out, I just think he might take just a little bit longer to get there vs. someone with better bat to balls skills.
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17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Your hatred of Stowers as a player has been noted repeatedly. Please remember that when he's given an everyday chance somewhere and he ends putting up good numbers at the major league level.
Yes, he has contact issues at times, but you pointing out his three games of stats since he's been back in AAA after basically being benched for almost two weeks shows your bias.
At this point, we just have to see how it plays out.
I don’t hate Stowers. That’s a pretty strong and unwarranted statement. Please don’t put words in my mouth. ReAd posts I made in Stowers 2022 thread and you’ll see glowing reviews.
Im a big fan and hope he crushes it. And if my critiques some how me me look foolish in someone’s eyes, fantastic - that means he’s having success. Probably BECAUSE I’m a fan, I’m trying to guard my excitement that his other worldly XWOBACON generates(.445 v .368 league avg.)
He has freak show power and has killed it in the minors despite the swing in miss. I’m an Os fan and not used to having nice things, so I think part of me expects him to fail just because.
Was going to finally respond to you in the other thread re: his defense. I will agree I was way too harsh on him. He has a cannon and can move well for a Big guy. What has made me worry are the bone head plays I’ve seen him make. For me mental errors are not acceptable for a MLB player(maybe that’s unrealistic) Perhaps I’m holding a grudge on just a few plays and should Let it go
For the record, I would like nothing more for him to be called up tonight and inserted into the lineup as an everyday player.
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6 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:
He's always had a good bit of swing and miss, though. He just walks a lot and hits for enough power to make up for it. At least in the minors up until this point. I don't really consider any of Stowers stats in the majors to be a worthwhile sample size to conclude anything because he was jerked around and sat so much.
If you struggle putting bat on the ball (66% C% & 32% K%) the xWOBACON, albeit incredible, does not come into play often enough. If you have a hole in your swing, or a few holes (in his case), MLB pitchers will exploit you.
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Just now, Brooks The Great said:
You're not wrong, but Stowers was also sitting most days over a two week stretch with the major league team before being sent down. Totally understandable if his timing is off.
That’s fair, and I don’t disagree his timing is likely rusty. But there is a fairly significant trend here. He swings and misses a lot. Sometimes it looks like he misses the ball by 3’ (exaggerating).
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1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:
The refusal to play Stowers against lefties - or at all - is equally frustrating and mind boggling.
In 3 games he’s struck out 5x in 12ABs since going to Norfolk. So that’s 8ks in 16ABs on the season. Gotta hit the ball for the power to play.
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33 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t think so, but who knows?
I’d certainly like to see him soon.
He wasn’t in the lineup last night in Nashville. One can dream
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His next start is tomorrow 4:05pm for anyone interested.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
To be clear, that has happened as of today. Still think that?
I’m gonna edit that to “shortly there after”
Main point is I believe that is the reason he was down there to start season and didn’t get called up last season.
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49 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:
First, it was a joke. Second, you're moving the goalposts.
The statement was "Do you have any examples of successful major leaguers with an ISO that low? I don’t know of any."
Now, it would be questionable whether or not Belliard was a successful major leaguer.
Arraez ISO .099 / Sprint speed age 25 year 26.4 / OAA -2
Has a stronger Arm.
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3 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:
Not sure why you say "if they start hitting" when it comes to Westburg. He did nothing but hit last season, and this season he's already hit 3 HR and has an OPS over .800.
Westburg should have already been on the major league roster last season after the trade deadline.
Westburg should take McKenna's spot on the roster and start against every single LHP (and start as regularly overall as possible) so that we never have to see McCann DH ever again.
Westburg's bat would lengthen the lineup, and he's a natural leader. This team is going to take another step up once he's promoted, and I hope Elias makes the right move with Westburg immediately. Call the man up.
I think he will be up the minute they get the extra year of service time.
Edit: sees WCs post, I somehow missed, and realizes today is the day. *I think he’ll be up very soon.
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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Vavra doesn’t have much speed. That’s not really a plus in his column and Sisco moved well, especially for a catcher.
27.1 v. 24.1 sprint speed age 25y/o seasons. Yea - Vavra isn’t a burner. League average. Not slow and won’t hurt you.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
But as of right now, the results are similar.
It’s a SSS overall, so we have to see.
There are lots of reasons why Vavra should be the better hitter. But none of this changes that if he doesn’t show more power, he won’t be a viable MLer. That is what he has to do, which is why I’m bringing up Sisco. He had the same issue to overcome. He couldn’t do it.
Im not saying he Vavra can’t do it. I’m saying he hasn’t done it and if that doesn’t change, he’s out of baseball within a few years because he doesn’t wow you with any other tools. He has to hit and get on base.
Like I said, if he can be a 370ish slugging guy, that should be enough to keep his OBP over 330 and that will allow him to be a MLer.
We all know he can walk, get the bat to the ball, have good at bats, etc…no one is debating that. But without more power, none of that will really matter.
Thats fair. I just looked up their BABIP and to my surprise they were identical .360 & .361. The one thing that Vavra has on Sisco and also helps him get on base is his speed. Albeit small amount of opportunities he will leg out some singles & will GIDP less than a Sisco profile player. Not saying, that makes all the difference in the world, but for an OBP guy and a low ISO guy, you need as many ways as possible to get on base.
I think his ceiling is Ben Zobrist light. .160 ISO / .350OBP / .750 OPS. Covering Multiple positions. But as you’ve mentioned, the power needs to increase. I’m hopeful he can get there through his age 26-28y/o seasons.
Friday night against the White Sox.
in Game Threads
Posted
Look on Hays face says it all