emmett16

That thread is hilarious. I hated the move but saw it as depth. I do think with his batted ball profiles they had a pretty good idea he’d produce. Maybe not as much as he did, but I’m sure he didn’t outperform all their potential scenarios. 2023 improvement definitely opened some eyes and created a lot of believers in the process. Me included, I was on the fence.

My guess on why they are throwing the pitch slower is to go for the ever allusive “late break” that can’t be defined/identified by regular tracking systems (yet). Teams/labs may have figured out how to track & how to teach for late break but that info isn’t out. A sinker benefits more than any other pitch from non -magnus effects (spin). IE, having more spin doesn’t necessarily mean you get more movement. More velocity always is better (all things considered). My guess is they are working the release location, arm slot, grip, etc. to get max seam shift wake and late break. Once they figure out the recipe, they can ratchet it up a tick. https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/03/the-impact-of-seam-shifted-wakes-on-pitch-quality/

Kremer is a warrior and not just because of the samurai bun. He posts, battles, slowly improves, and gives the team a chance to win every time out. He’s the quiet horse in the rotation. We are lucky to have him. There is no doubt in my mind that he isn’t taking last season’s data and applying it in the off-season to improve his craft.

Data available on these High School kids is insane. Couple that with the data they get while they are in college and these teams have a full picture. Here is data available on Ethan Jackson (as an example) for a non-paying PG account. Then scouts & teams have more access than this. https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=530129

I could watch him hit for hours. Been following him on IG and it’s like there is no flaw. His swing is a thing of beauty. The amount of flexibility and mobility he has is unreal.

For me it’s not about Adley, but the drop off in talent at the C position after him. The talent drop off at SS isn’t nearly as drastic.

I thought it would be interesting to see how we stack up against the top team and vs. the league average. SP = MIA 7.6 / Avg. 1.0 / O’s 1.6 RP = NYY 4.6 / Avg. -.9 / O’s .6 C = ARI 2.0 / Avg. -.3 / O’s 1.3 1B = ATL 5.2 / Avg. -.3 / O’s .4 2B = TEX 5.1 / Avg. .5 / O’s .4 3B = ATL 3.7 / Avg. .1 / O’s 2.2 SS = TEX 4.9 / Avg. .5 / O’s 1.7 LF = SDP 2.9 / Avg. -.2 / O’s .2 CF = SEA 3.2 / Avg. .7 / O’s 1.0 RF = ATL 5.9 / Avg. 0 / O’s -.2 OF = ATl 6.5 / Avg. .5 / O’s 1.0 DH = LAA 3.6 / Avg. -.3 / O’s 1.1 Looking at this a couple things stick out. 1. Atlanta is ridiculous 2. RF is pretty weak compared to avg. & top and the only spot we have a negative WAR. Makes me wonder if Santander is attractive in a trade and also makes me think we need to be upgrading RF production. Maybe the move is to dump (trade for low level lottery ticket) O’Hearn, replace him with Santa, & give Kjerstad the majority of the RF reps.

I agree with injuries in mind there is a bit more depth at OF. I think, just speaking about the incumbents, the SP are likely to perform better next year as opposed to the OF. I like that we have 6 legit guys to fight for the rotation before we even talk about Hall and the guys in AAA. I do think we should get one more pitcher and my previous posts with WAR by position illustrates that the SP is the current weak link. This is one of the main reasons I’ve been in favor of trading Santander, Hays, or both.

In a previous post (page 4) I posted Wins Above Average by position. We finished #16 for SP & #15 for combined OF. I know it’s not a perfect stat but is an efficient way to compare us vs. the other teams in the league.

Not sure, but 15 teams out-performed our OF. 16 out-performed our SP, so either are reasonable answers. Edit: we finished #16 in WAA for SP so 15 teams were better and #15 in OF so 14 teams were better.

I think CF is the biggest question mark and the “thinnest”. If Mullins gets hurt, we are putting scrubs out their. I thought long and hard about voting “no” because of the OF, and as you can see from my previous post, our OF is pretty poor compared to the league. But ultimately went with SP upgrade. If Mullins/Hats get hurt & Cowser/Kjerstad don’t take the next step we are in a world of hurt.

2023 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average SP = #16 @ 1.6 RP = #10 @ .6 C = #7 @ 1.3 1B = #9 @ .4 2B = #14 @ .4 3B = #5 @ 2.2 SS = #10 @ 1.7 LF = #2 @ .2 CF = #12 @ 1.0 RF = #15 @ -.2 OF = #15 @ 1.0 DH = #5 @ 1.1 My gut instinct was OF. Specifically CF as I think trusting Mullins to stay healthy is risky and we don’t have much depth. We lack a bonafied slugger in the lineup. I do think our guys will take a step forward in the OF this year. I voted the pitching staff for the poll, but don’t think we need a TOR type, raising the floor + improvements from our guys will go a long way. I think picking up an impact pitcher will be easier than a true slugger or CF replacement.

For sure. But I just can’t get past the irony of the whole thing.

Seems like a potential competitive advantage for forward thinking organizations. I still can’t get over how MLB essentially invented streaming so that folks in Japan could watch Ichiro and here we are talking about their cable bubble about to burst.

Elias said it himself. Something to the tune of we are in a good spot to where we could but don’t need to bring them up and can continue to develop them in AAA.

Absolute best case? They both pitched in AAA last year. They will each likely get a cup of coffee this year. If there weren’t 6+ pitchers in front of them they’d likely move faster. We are in an enviable position to where we can do pretty much what we want and don’t need to do anything. Would it be nice to get a pitcher, sure. But if it costs us 18-24 years of service from 3 or 4 top 100 guys, I don’t seen that happening. Like you said, the teams inability (or desire) to lock up assets is a reason why they aren’t likely to give up 18-24 years of below market value production.

It’s a coin flip for me. Gun to my head I’ll take Kjerstad. His elite level bat speed is pretty rare. However I highly doubt this will be an issue. I fully expect both to be on the opening day roster and get 400 ABs this year as an Oriole.

Going to take a few years? They have 6 people in the rotation currently with Hall, Povich, & McDermott knocking on the door. Clock is ticking? Darn near the entire team is under Control for 5 years.

Maybe, that’s one avenue. But I don’t see ME giving up what it would take to get someone already established. I think they likely trade some hitters for lower level pitchers they can develop. I believe our difference making “ace” type pitcher will come out of our system. Judging by how they operate I’d be pretty surprised to see multiple top 100 guys go in a trade for one SP. It just doesn’t seem to be their MO. They have some wild cards in the system right now that could be that guy (Hall, Povich, Johnson) in addition to Bradish & GRod who could step into that role.

I’d prefer difference makers in the rotation over difference makers on prospects lists.

They’ve traded for college pitchers they identified in the draft since year 1 (2019). Brandish, Povich, Johnson, McDermott, etc. seem to be a pretty effective strategy. Folks casually forget the Bradish trade who is our #1 and one of the best pitches in MLB.

Nope. Glad to see the free market alive and well. I hope the players get paid top dollar and the owners make a fat profit.

Only reason I advocate for trading Kremer is because he has a good bit of value, not because I don’t like him and want to get rid of him. He’s fairly cheap and has been a league average + pitcher the last two years. There is reason to think there is more in the tank for the soon to be 28 y/o. If Kremer, Westburg, Norby, & two low level lottery picks could get this done that would be fantastic. If they have to cough up a Kjerstad or Cowser that would be painful. Can Westburg be headliner with Kremer and Notby as secondary pieces ?

I wonder if we could get a good deal on Alcantara with him being injured. Try to pick up a pitcher at the deadline for the stretch run and have an Ace in waiting for 2025.

Honestly, just the fact that HOU had him on the trade block gives me pause. They know their guys and they want to win. I get the finance piece, but don’t really buy that. I think they have a good feeling he’s not gonna produce if they are looking to trade him. Seems like a .