emmett16

That's likely my fault The thing that sticks out to me with Grayson's second half is the control/command we saw with pitches (2.4/BB9 over 76.2) and while throwing strikes, the opposition slugged .306 while only hitting 3 HR. That tells me that his stuff was playing at the MLB level. He was throwing strikes, and the opposition couldn't put together good swings against him. So, again, for me the only thing holding him back is health. When he struggled, he was getting cute with location and started doing things differently than he had done in the past. His minor league BB/9 was 3.16 so I'd expect some regression from his incredible second half, which is why I think he will pitch somewhere around 3.5 era next year. But I wouldn't bet against him doing much better.

It was interesting to go back and look at Matusz’ numbers on baseball savant. He dropped 3.3mph from 2010 to 2011. Pure speculation but I imagine he 1. Either got hurt throwing the 175ip in 2010 (most he ever threw) 2. Didn’t put in the work in the off-season 3. Or, got hurt in off-season trying to push himself. Taking 2011 on the chin for sure messed with his head (10.69 era) and was never really the same after. Couple that with an organization that didn’t know how to optimize the tools/talent the pitchers were working with and the rest is history. That was a time the Os we’re pushing “establish the fastball” and “everything else plays off the fastball” which for a guy that didn’t bring the heat, was likely a recipe for failure. He could spin it pretty well and a different approach maybe could have benefited him.

Maybe he hit 96-98 a couple of times. His highest avg. fastball was 92.1 in 2009 & 2013. Also interesting that his worst year was 2011(10.69 era) when his avg. velocity dropped to lowest in his career @88.7….right after that good 2010 second half.

I understand his point. But I also think that elite velocity and elite movement on that velocity will always outperform, in the aggregate, non-elite velocity and movement. The simple fact that the batter has less time to make a decision and perform will win out more often than not. There is a direct correlation between velocity and a batters OBACON.

I don't see any point in comparing him to someone who profiles completely differently. The average fastball in 2010 was 93.1 and Brian Matusz was 90.5. I'll stick with what I said. And, in fact, in 2011 he was running it up there in the high 80's.

You're comparing him to a soft tossing lefty? There are absolutely no guarantees, but I'll take my chances with a guy who has 3 plus pitches and dominated the opposition with electric stuff. The big number(s) that sticks out to me in his second half was only allowing 3 HR & 21 walks. He gave up 13HR and 21 BBs in the first half in just about half the innings pitched as the second half.

If he's healthy, I expect him to be a top 10 pitcher in the AL. I have extremely lofty expectations for him. I really believe in the talent. After 163.1 IP 185ks & 61 BBs (across both levels) this year and after what he did from 7/28 until the end of the season, I expect him to do something like 185 IP / 190 Ks / 55 BBs / 3.00 ERA. I truly believe the only thing that can get in his way is his health.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C049lv0uh7Q/ I like the way the ball is coming off the bat lol. Looks like the kids are in good hands this winter.

I agree and understand that prospects fail more often than they hit. Those guys just look different than other players I've seen over the years. And to hear comments from Basallo like (and i'm paraphrasing) "I don't want to just be the best player in Oriole's history, but the best player in baseball history" sends shivers down my spine. (trying to locate where I found that quote)

Maybe. But when you look at their physicality and then you couple that with their baseball skills/talent you see something extremely unique and special. We are talking about two massive physical specimens who have next level athletic abilities and baseball talent. It's not often you see players with their size have the skills they have. That alone raises both their floor and their ceiling. I'll go out on a limb and say that Basallo's ceiling is higher than Adley's and, were it not for the defense and foot speed, Mayo's ceiling is higher than Gunnars. I think offensively Mayo's ceiling is higher but Gunnar beats him out on defense.

I think DL Hall is going to make a major impact to this organization. The raw talent is incredibly special.

Turns out Mayo clicked on all cylinders and we have a monster on our hands. I think one could say that 'the magic dust' fell on Basallo, as well. Holiday was a given for uber top prospect in the game, but to now have three is incredible and almost unbelievable.

It's hard not to pull for a deer in headlights and hope they don't get struck down.

My initial reaction while re-reading what you wrote is that it's absolute LUNACY that all those items you outlined weren't important to the owner. Those are the basic building blocks for any successful business.

I think the guy would have to have a screw loose not to go to the Dodgers. Get top dollar and play on a world class team that is trying to win the WS every year and putting every single potential resource into doing so. Impressive organization from top to bottom.

Would that still be the case if they had previously spoken about exactly what a signable extension would look like? Does he need to present him with all offers as they come in, or only if an offer that they had previously agreed could work came in?

I've been trying to find a way to upload video of a game I saw him where he went deep oppo with plenty to spare. Later in the game he turned on a pitch and hit an absolute bomb but it went foul by a hair. He's a strong guy, but his swing isn't sculpted to hit dingers.

He hurt his arm when he was younger and taught himself to throw lefty so that he could keep playing. Not sure if he kept that up or not. He's apparently a top notch cook also. I remember seeing that on a MASN special (I think) early last year. Tony is a very interesting dude.

I saw that poll and didn't know a good place to post on here. Glad you started this thread. Interesting stuff for sure.

Great post and good insights. I do agree that there is definitely luck tied to it. But just like in poker if you play the percentages things will go in your favor. You will never be able to completely avoid them, but you should be able to limit them. I think they do a good job of putting the players in a position where they can be successful and healthy and let the cards fall where they may. I do think the thing the O's are doing better than some others, is identifying the guys that will buy in to their programming or at least to outside programming that they believe in.

That makes sense. I just have this sneaking suspicion he’s a guy they don’t want to trade. It’s hard to see them just letting him walk after the season. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year? At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year. I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years.

Agree with the above. He’s going to play next year @ 29y/o. A one year contract for a productive 30y/o wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. I think the O’s are in a win/win position with him. He’s likely to produce the next two years. If he does and walks we get a pick, if he doesn’t and stays we get solid production, at market value, from a guy that can cover a couple positions.

Check out the Rates & Barrels podcast over in the MLB section. They touch on a lot of this. I was actually surprised to hear that not all of the teams, and actually very few of the teams are doing this. To me, it sounds like the Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, Rays are the cream of the crop. You also hear mention of the Brewers & Mariners. But they state very confidently that very few teams are doing these things. I was very surprised by that.

After listening to the podcasts that @btdart20 posted in the MLB section, a couple things come to mind: 1. I wonder how easily attainable it is to get a full and reliable report on other team's players mental make-up, work ethic, & drive. 2. If attainable, I'm curious which guys out there this org. wouldn't touch with a 10' pole. I imagine that info could be hard to come by and, if so, could create a sense of more risk when trading known entities. Just another small piece in a very big puzzle.