CaptainRedbeard

There’s also a mid-August date with <45 games remaining when Holliday or Mayo (or even Basallo) would be eligible for ROY next year. That’s the date they called up Gunnar. I don’t think there’s any chance Holliday is left down that long after trading Ortiz, but if there’s no clear spot for Mayo to play and they want to wait until the Super 2 anyway that could be relevant. That date is also just about 2 weeks after the trade deadline, so if they need to use the trade deadline to deal a vet to make space for a prospect, it’s shortly after.

I’m pretty confident that Coulombe and Cano will be solid members of the pen, but not that they’ll necessarily repeat last year. But I think they are good relievers, just could benefit from having another RP to go with them. I especially don’t think either are well suited to be locked in as the “8th inning guy” because Cano should be shielded from LH hitters more than he was last year, and Coulombe can get righties out but is still better deployed against lefties. Perez I think is what he is - good ground ball lefty but bad K/BB rates. He could implode if his contact suppression or command falter but there’s a solid niche for that type. Kimbrel is a perfectly acceptable closer/setup guy but not a huge asset. They could really benefit from a righty who can get out both lefties and righties and pitch in a more conventional set-up / backup closer role. All of Wells, Webb and Baker have 3 pitch mixes with changeups that can fit that mold, and 2021 Wells or 2022 Baker would work perfectly. But I don’t think we can really bank on either of them showing up so I’d like to bring someone additional in, even if it means Baumann may get DFAd. I just am skeptical Elias feels the same.

Yeah, we have 4 solid RPs where we have a good idea what we’re getting - Kimbrel, Cano, Coulombe, Perez - plus Irvin. They of course have the typical RP volatility, but they’re locked in health permitting. Then it’s 3 spots for righties, one of which will ultimately need to be an optionable arm, with a group that has a wide range of outcomes - Wells, Tate, Webb, Baker, Baumann. I’d rank them in that order of my confidence right now (if Tate is actually healthy), but by the end of 2024 I wouldn’t be really surprised at whatever order they end up. The question now is how does Elias feel about that group and is he willing to DFA the out of options Webb/Baumann for someone outside the organization? Or even to get both Wells and Tate in the MLB bullpen?

Sure…meant 1 WAR is a big difference in value. And it can make a big difference in whether you make the playoffs. Teams spend a lot to get premium players that are 1 WAR better than more run of the mill average players. The Orioles could have a lot of things wrong and win 86-87 games and still be serious World Series contenders if they’re able to get in. You can have injured players who come back healthy in time for the playoffs, or just guys who have bad years who are getting things back on track at the end of the year, or run of the mill bad luck in one-run games or whatever that you don’t expect to be predictive going forward. The Padres were an extreme example of that type of mid-80s win team just last season that would have been one of the best NL teams in the playoffs if they snuck in. And the Diamondbacks another extreme example of how it’s just very valuable to be able to punch your ticket to the dance regardless of how many regular season wins you end up with.

1 win is a big difference. The difference between Burnes and just an above average mid-rotation starter. And in many scenarios where not everything goes the Orioles’ way in 2024, the difference between making the playoffs and missing it. Sure it may not ultimately matter if they win 90+ games, but we won’t know that in April. I don’t think the Orioles comfortably project for 95+ wins like the Braves or Dodgers where you can knock off 1 win and feel like it doesn’t have a significant impact on their playoff odds. Giving back a win in 2024 to send Holliday down for the extra year of control in 7 years is at odds with the Burnes trade prioritizing 2024 wins. There’s also the distinct possibility that, if Holliday is the future HoF talent that so many think he’s going to be, it’s way more than 1 win. Gunnar and Adley were worth 5 WAR their rookie seasons. Holliday is IMO a better prospect than both of them were. If that’s what the Orioles think they have in Holliday now, they don’t send them down. And for what it’s worth, since the ROY pick was added that’s what most teams have done with their top prospects when they’re ready. I don’t think we’ve seen blatant service time manipulation in recent years.

How much better do you think Holliday is than Urias/Mateo on Opening Day? I think Holliday is probably something like a 3 WAR player right now. Urias/Mateo are like 2 WAR. So by leaving Holliday down in AAA, you’re giving up ~1 WAR over the course of the full season. If you think Holliday is a 3 WAR player but want the extra year, you probably shouldn’t send him down for just the minimum 3 weeks because there’s a decent chance he’ll win ROY and you lose the extra year anyway (in addition to maybe transparently pissing off Holliday/Boras with service time manipulation). Plus, if you call him up before Super 2, that extra year is a 4th trip through arb, which diminishes the value. So if you need to leave Holliday down until midseason to make sure he’s out of ROY contention, and he’s about 1 WAR better than Urias, you’re costing ~0.5 WAR to do that, or about $5M surplus value if you want to put a $ value on it. What’s the discount rate on 0.5 WAR / $5M in 2024 vs. the extra year of control on Holliday in 7 years? Just considering service time, if you put a premium on 2024 wins and you think Holliday is that much better than Urias then there’s still a good argument to have him go on Opening Day. It’s not a slam dunk either way, it’s arguable. And the ROY pick may slightly tip the scales towards having him up Opening Day. That said, if the Orioles don’t think he’s ready for legitimate, non-service time reasons, then he’s probably not that much better than Urias and it’s an easy call to send him down. But I think, and I think the Orioles think, that Holliday’s going to show up to Spring Training and demonstrate he’s ready right now. I thought Ortiz was better than Urias by enough of a margin, in addition to it being valuable to get Ortiz MLB playing time, that the equation was clear he should be starting Opening Day instead of Holliday. But now that Ortiz is gone I think it’s going to be Holliday.

Oh I completely agree with that, I was saying how you approach optimizing the defensive alignment assuming you are only considering the 3 players playing 2B/3B/SS. It’s going to be really interesting to see what they do with Mayo. If he’s a legitimate option at 3B, and it seems like he could be, the equation gets way more complicated because you’re playing somebody down the defensive spectrum if both he and Westburg are in the lineup. Either that’s an outcome they’re ok with for the sake of depth and flexibility, or they make a trade. Given the Orioles like depth, moving guys around and rotating guys through DH, I think the most likely outcome is they’re ok with having 4 guys with Gunnar/Holliday/Westburg/Mayo to play 2B/3B/SS, with Mayo/Westburg playing some OF/1B and all of them periodically DHing, and Mayo ultimately not playing much 3B if all 4 are healthy. But it could go a lot of different ways.

That’s true and that’s why he still grades pretty well in Location+ and Pitching+ (and the equivalent PitchingBot grades). Stuff+ just grades the metrics without the command, but when you include command he’s still a good pitcher overall even with diminished stuff. I like Wells a lot. I just don’t think Wells is going to be the borderline dominant RP that he was in 2021 without a significant bounceback in his stuff.

Baumann I think has the pitches but his command is horrible. He leaves way too many fastballs and sliders in the middle to get hammered, and his curve is good but he can’t throw it for strikes or even consistently close enough to the strike zone to get chases. I think he generally needs command improvements across all 3 pitches, or at least WAY improved command (and through that more frequent usage) of the curve. Wells has the command but he needs the fastball velo back so he can get away with more fastballs that leak down out of the top of the zone where he wants to live with it. And I agree he needs to figure out something better with his offspeed to have a better go-to as a RP. Probably simplify his cutter/curve/slider options to narrow to one plus option against RH and use his change way more often, especially against LH.

2021 Tyler Wells had a 119 Stuff+. He had a well above average fastball, slider and changeup. 2023 Tyler Wells, even in his 5 IP stint as a RP at the end of the year with his velo back, had a 92 Stuff+ and his fastball was still well below average. Only his changeup graded well and he still threw it less than 20% of the time. His pitch metrics really eroded precipitously from 2021 to 2022 moving to the rotation, and then again from 2022 to 2023. So I think it really depends on if an offseason of rest and mechanical work and being put back into a RP workload will bring Wells back closer to the arsenal he was working with in 2021. I still think he could be a very effective RP with even a partial bounceback in his stuff, but I’ll be surprised if we see 2021 Tyler Wells again.

100%. But that mostly had to do with Frazier utterly collapsing defensively after being a very good defensive player his whole career, either due to some rapid aging or playing through injury. He was one of the worst 2B in baseball last year.

Your point, which is a good one, was that the optimal infield alignment doesn’t necessarily mean playing the best defensive SS at SS. It’s about optimizing the total defense of the 3 infielders at 2B/SS/3B. But if Westburg is one of those infielders you can’t say he has nothing to do with what they do at 3B and SS. If Westburg is interchangeable at 2B and 3B then there’s no reason not to play your best defensive SS at SS, whether that’s Gunnar or Holliday.

Small sample for Westburg defensively last year of course, but he was better as a 3B than 2B by OAA/RAA, better as a 2B than a 3B by DRS, and almost exactly equal by UZR. My recollection is there wasn’t a good consensus in scouting reports beyond him not being a plus SS, and those that questioned his defense either had questions about range as a 2B or arm as a 3B (or both). To me, he certainly seemed to have good range at 2B and enough arm to play 3B. He made improvements and his defense was definitely better than the scouting reports that were critical, in any case. Maybe he’s better suited to play 2B, I don’t know, but IMO we don’t really have enough evidence to be able to say anything other than he seems about roughly equivalent at both positions.

Sure, but only if the third infielder is only a 2B. Hypothetically, if Westburg were strictly 2B-only, then Gunnar could be a superior SS to Holliday and it still makes sense to be Gunnar 3B and Holliday SS because that on net is better than putting Holliday at 3B. However, Westburg is not 2B-only. And Mayo is 3B-only. I see these potential outcomes: 1. Gunnar better than Holliday at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B 2. Holliday better than Gunnar at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B 3. Westburg arm too limiting at 3B, needs to play 2B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B 4. Mayo primary 3B and Westburg more UTIL (or traded): Gunnar SS, Mayo 3B, Holliday 2B. Right now it seems pretty clear we’re in universe (1), I don’t think anybody thinks Holliday is a better SS than Gunnar right now. And because (3) and (4) are pretty remote possibilities, in practice the only way Holliday is going to be the SS is if he’s actually a better SS than Gunnar. That could definitely happen eventually but it doesn’t seem like we’re there yet.

Even if Holliday is or will be a capable defensive SS, he still needs to surpass Gunnar defensively to supplant him there. Given Gunnar’s exceptional arm that’s only going to happen if his range declines, and while he’s a bigger guy he’s a great athlete. It may not happen until he’s in his 30s. Whoever is the 3rd infielder also will be a big factor. If it’s Westburg, he right now seems about equivalently capable at both 2B and 3B. If it becomes more apparent that his best defensive home is one or the other that could tip the scales. If Mayo is the 3B then that really locks Gunnar into SS and Holliday into 2B. I think it’s likely that Westburg will be the primary infielder with Gunnar and Holliday, but the Orioles like to move guys around and probably will give Mayo some opportunities at 3B.

It would be a much bigger mental shift if they think Hall still has a good chance to be a SP. Otherwise, it’s a continuation of “trade only blocked prospects and RPs.” But the stakes are much higher - trading a much better blocked prospect in Ortiz and getting an elite player with only one year of control. I do think trading the comp pick is a notable shift, though. Elias’ comments about that were very interesting, that those are easier to deal because all teams value them the same way. So even though Elias obviously values them (and has traded for them in the past), perhaps it’s an indication that there aren’t other prospects in the same value range that MIL wanted that Elias didn’t value more strongly.

Based on Santos’ age, stuff, control and overall performance last year, he was a very solid trade piece. The projection systems love him. Doesn’t seem like the White Sox got much of a good return for him for all of those factors, so makes more sense if there were big injury & character concerns. Wasn’t sure the White Sox were even going to be willing to move him given the years of control, but he was one of the few RP with really good projections on bad teams. Further limits the pre-trade deadline options for the Orioles.

100% and I’ve agreed. But while Ortiz was here, I was skeptical that they would think Holliday was enough of an improvement on Opening Day where it was worth the extra control. Without Ortiz and with the move for Burnes, it feels like that gap over Urias is larger and there’s even more of a premium on 2024. Now I’m expecting it will be Holliday on Opening Day unless he shows he’s not ready in Spring Training.

They haven’t had a good offseason, but they underperformed last year. They have a solid group of position players and strongly disagree that their pitching is thin, Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi and Bassit is a very strong 4/5 of a rotation (even if they may not have depth). Their biggest problem is they need a lot more out of Vlad Jr and they are losing Chapman with no real replacement. They’re probably the 4th team in the division, but if things break well for them they could certainly be a strong team. I still think the Yankees are the strongest divisional opponent (if health allows), and the Rays are never going away (although losing Franco and Glasnow are big blows).

A fully healthy Yankee team could still be ahead of the Orioles. But they’re extremely reliant on the health of Judge, Soto, Cole & Rodon/Cortes/Stroman. Soto and Cole have been very durable but the rest have not. The Orioles still would similarly take a big blow by any injuries to their best players - Gunnar, Adley, Burnes, Bradish, Grayson - but their depth everywhere else is exceptional and it’s night and day compared to the Yankees. Absent injuries to that group, the only weakness for the Orioles is their bullpen, particularly if Cano/Coulombe take big steps back and Wells doesn’t fill the void / they don’t add another arm. Beyond that, the Astros aren’t going anywhere and the Rangers, Rays and Blue Jays are still very strong clubs, and we could always see good years from the Mariners or Twins, but I’d take the Orioles over all of them. Nobody else in the AL really has a shot at being in that top echelon. Rangers have the bats but without DeGrom and Scherzer healthy, not the arms - maybe id they re-sign Montgomery. In the NL, the Braves and Dodgers are on an entirely higher level but it’s the same story for the other good teams otherwise, don’t see another team on paper measurably really stronger than the Orioles right now. Good time to be an O’s fan.

Nothing really analyzing Burnes, as you’d expect from a prospect podcast, but boy did they make me more worried Hall has figured something out. Lot of discussion of his mechanical changes mid-last year: flatter approach, much better VAA, more extension, way more consistent strike throwing. However, not from the podcast, but the flip side from my perspective: it’s a very small sample and possible the Orioles were able to cash in selling high on the Brewers liking all those same factors and viewing him as a SP. Hall’s never been able to stay healthy, we don’t know how much velo he’ll lose transitioning back to the rotation, and we don’t know how much of those mechanical improvements he’ll be able to keep over a SP workload. And the point remains that you need to give up something to get Corbin Burnes. Still love the deal.

Yeah it would be a huge sell low for them, but they are the A’s. It would be pretty nice to turn 1-2 of Santander, Hays, O’Hearn, Urias, Stowers, Norby into a RP of equivalent value. I’m less keen on trading Mountcastle right now but would also deal him. I think we’re more likely to see that at the deadline, when teams are more looking to move their RP as well, and more likely to pick up a FA. But Elias is probably exploring all options.

Mason Miller is the dream guy if we’re trading with the A’s. He’s had all kinds of health issues that mean the A’s probably will make him a RP and certainly will be looking to deal him eventually. His stuff is unreal nasty and he’ll definitely be a dominant RP. Problem is they’ll probably wait to get him healthy and performing in the closer role and trade him at the deadline when his value will be much higher. Old friend Hunter Harvey with 2 years of control remaining may be the best target if we’re looking to find a non-competitive team that wants to cash in on a RP.

I’ve always felt the “learning from veteran players” factor may be overblown but Burnes has a very similar arsenal to Bradish. Bradish could benefit from tuning his fastball with its natural cut (which he’s already leaned into more) into more of a cutter like Burnes. And Burnes could probably benefit from throwing his breaking stuff more often like Bradish.

I think the Orioles probably will consider running a bit like the Rays/Brewers at some point once they similarly hit their payroll ceiling but right now they’re still on the upswing. They don’t have a need to shed payroll yet and their core and farm system are so strong and under control for so long that they don’t need supplementing in the same way. In fact they have some excess now to be able to trade for a Burnes.