CaptainRedbeard

ZIPS is projecting Mateo to be .241/.289/.404 vs LHP and .228/.269/.362 vs RHP. That’s obviously not good even against LHP, but if he’s bringing plus to plus plus defense then that’s a palatable line against LHP. I’m skeptical he’s actually going to bring that level of defense given his inconsistency at SS last year and lack of recent experience playing CF (and some very poorly played balls in super limited time out there last year), but after the Ortiz trade I think we’re stuck with him for the time being. If Mateo gets any starts or even moderate leverage PAs against RHP that’s pretty inexcusable. Even if he starts against LHP they need to be pinch hitting for him against the first RHP RP he faces if the game is at all close.

I don’t know if it has to do with 2B specifically, I think it has to do more with having 2 lefty IF options for matchups against RHP with big splits and Gunnar plays SS/3B, so it makes sense the other would be able to play 2B. But it is weird, especially since Urias has been a LOT better against RHP than LHP in his major league career. Even the ZIPS projected splits, which put a lot of emphasis on regressing towards the typical handedness weaknesses, project him to be almost exactly equal vs RHP and LHP. So they basically already have their second “lefty” IF in Urias.

If Holliday does not make the team I think Maton will. Elias spoke about the need for a lefty infielder before signing Frazier and then when talking about opportunities for Holliday a few days ago. I disagree with it, especially since Urias has had reverse splits, but what can you do. I think Holliday will make the team and it will be a moot point, and if not Maton probably won’t play much before Holliday is called up. Either Urias or O’Hearn could/should be moved for a RP and would make things much more clear, so it’s a more interesting question of what they do if they don’t make a trade. I don’t think they’ll DFA either of them so if there’s no trade or injury, it’s going to be tough for Kjerstad to make it. I agree Cowser or Hilliard will make it for defense over Kjerstad, and that probably comes down to whether they think Cowser will play enough & will not benefit from more AAA time vs. intrigue in Hilliard and risk of losing him on waivers. I’d much rather they go with Cowser, but not if they’re going to bury him on the bench. If they think any of Mateo, Hays, Cowser & Hilliard are sufficient backup CF, I don’t see a reason to keep McKenna. If they’re going to DH Adley and start McCann against LHP again, which I think they will, they can start Hays & Santander in the OF against LHP and have only 1-2 lefties in the lineup (depending on whether Gunnar/Holliday are getting a breather and where Mateo plays).

O’Hearn has 5 years of service time now so he has to consent to being optioned to the minors.

Hays has been a solid player for the Orioles and I won’t say now that he has no future with this team after hitting free agency after 2025. It’s just that at that time it would be only as a 4th OF, unless the Orioles development of OF prospects goes horribly over their next 2 years. Hays would be a good 4th OF with this team as a righty who can play OPACY LF and not kill you in CF, but he’s not looking for an extension to get paid as a 4th OF. Right now he’s better than a 4th OF and 4th OF don’t sign multi year deals anyway. I don’t think any team in baseball would be looking to extend Austin Hays as a starting OF right now, let alone a team that has as many prospects on the way as the Orioles. Stick with Hays’ current contract and if he gets phased into more of a part time role over the course of the next 2 years, then maybe there’s a contract that makes sense for everyone to continue that role when he’s a free agent.

The error bars on team win projections are so big that they are not very meaningful. And that’s not even counting all of the “luck” factors - pythag, RISP, etc. The single projected wins figure also does not really capture upside vs. downside. The projection is in the middle. But the Orioles have a ton of upside with so many young players (and with RP with really good stuff, but not a track record of success), and also a ton of depth that limits the impact of injury downsides. IMO baseball is, more than any other sport, a “you have to play the games” sport. It doesn’t meant the projections are worthless, they’re a sophisticated attempt at a “best guess” and for that reason they’re heavily influential in player evaluation and roster construction. But part of what makes baseball great is that anything can happen. Anybody that didn’t learn from the 2012 Orioles not to put too much weight on projections and just enjoy the ride should have learned that from the 2023 Orioles. And if instead you “learned” that the projection systems are biased against the Orioles…you didn’t understand the lesson.

1, 2, 6 and 7 are precisely why the BaseRuns record was 89 wins last year, and that’s the why 89 wins should be viewed as the baseline and not 101 wins. But 3 & 4 are less significant than you might think, at least for the position players. O’Hearn is surprisingly projected to regress slightly, but not crater. Holliday and Westburg have very good projections. The other rookies Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo are pretty even with O’Hearn and they’re not projected for a lot of PA. And they’re even pretty bought in on Bradish and Grayson, just not to the degree that their second half performances indicate. The big factor is 5 - no Bautista - and 4 for all the other members of the pen, particularly Cano and Coulombe. All that to say, this isn’t like the mid-2010 Orioles where the projections were consistently skeptical of many players. Right now it’s pretty much just the relievers.

I agree, I would take league average. But that would still be about 2 wins more than what the projection systems think. I’m just explaining the bullpen is a big reason why the equation is not “101 wins last year, minus Bautista and Gibson, plus Burnes, Kimbrel and Holliday, equals 100+ wins.” The Orioles were “lucky” in both Pythagorean record and in sequencing of stringing together offensive production. By Fangraphs’ BaseRuns, they were an 89 win team last year. Then while Burnes/Holliday/Kimbrel > Gibson/Frazier/Bautista, the projections are also expecting significant regression from the bullpen as a whole that works in the opposite direction. That’s basically why they will come out to slightly under 89 wins, rather than getting bumped up by Burnes and Holliday. I’m expecting some regression from the bullpen, but not that much.

Even if the models were biased, which they are not, the guy who does the ZIPS model (half of the Fangraphs projections) is a big Orioles fan.

Fangraphs’ Depth Charts are going to end up projecting the Orioles similar to PECOTA, in the mid-80s. If PECOTA is similar to Fangraphs, the reason is pretty modest projections for Bradish and Grayson (relative to everyone’s expectations based on their second half performances), and a pretty poor one for Means, then across the board terrible projections for the bullpen. Fangraphs currently projects the Orioles’ bullpen to be worth 1.4 WAR total. Last year they were 7.5 WAR. Bautista was 2.8 WAR of that of course, but Kimbrel, Cano and Coulombe were 1.1, 1.7 and 1.4 each, respectively. With even a middle of the pack 3.5 WAR projection for the bullpen as a whole that would put the Orioles in the high-80s/maybe 90 wins, with upside for much more from their rotation. I’m sure the Orioles and everyone else expect their bullpen to be a lot better than what it’s projected to be.

If the Orioles were actually interested in bringing back Hicks as reported, that could mean they prefer Cowser/Kjerstad in AAA. Wrong move IMO but I think that improves the chances that McKenna, Hilliard or Stowers makes the Opening Day roster much more than it does for Nevin.

Definitely no reason to be upset about acquiring Nevin. Nevin, Hilliard and McKenna are all worth having now as depth in case of spring training injury, and all are worth paying their ~$800k MLB salaries if they accept an assignment to AAA. My feelings will range from slightly irked (McKenna), to disagreement (Hilliard) to absolutely befuddled (Nevin) if any are on the Opening Day roster and getting actual MLB action if everyone is healthy.

I think Stowers and Norby are trade pieces but they’re not so valuable that they really need to be moved, like Ortiz was. Stowers has 2 options and Norby isn’t even on the 40 man yet. As Santander, O’Hearn, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Urias and Mateo are on their way out over the next couple years, there’s going to be bench opportunities opening up. They can be in AAA serving as optionable depth in the meantime. If you have a team that will trade for them valuing them as potential starters then you do it, but if the league views them as bench players then there’s still a good fit for them to play that role here. Something like Norby, Stowers and Fabian (or a different RH defensive OF type if Fabian never gets his contact rates together) could be a good bench in 2025/2026+.

The multiple innings thing is a good point and I don’t mind Baumann in that role. He just shouldn’t be out there with a (close) lead. However, I realize that Burnes is replacing Gibson so the innings are a wash there…but is it possible that with a full year of Grayson and Means our rotation will be pitching deep enough into games that we can get by with just Irvin in a multi-inning RP role? Webb can probably get that done well enough to be the second lesser-used cleanup option.

Their trade value is high enough to net a solid RP piece, but they have to find a team that wants that deal. Right now even the likes of the Angels, Pirates and Royals are focused on adding. The only firm sellers are the A’s, Nats and White Sox, and the Rockies are just kind of unpredictable and clueless. There’s some options on those 3 firm seller teams but not sure one matches up. Maybe a team that is in “buy” mode that sees Norby/Stowers as immediate lineup upgrades, and they otherwise have a strong pen that they’re willing to deal from? Holderman from PIT? I like him but not sure he’s worth Norby even with the many years of control. Just feels like the opportunities will be way more available at the trade deadline.

I’ll concede Holliday may start in the minors, and McKenna may make the team because they want a RH CF backup / defensive replacement. I’ll even concede they may want Hilliard or Stowers on the bench over Cowser or Kjerstad if they prefer the prospects playing every day, although I think that would be a mistake and one of Cowser/Kjerstad can get enough playing time that one should be in the majors. But in no scenario with all of their players healthy does it make sense for Tyler Nevin to be on the Opening Day roster, outside of something wacky like they’re facing a bunch of LHP early on and they plan to DFA him after that stretch. I think all of McKenna, Hilliard and Nevin are on the 40-man roster because they have the space and to serve as depth in case of injuries before opening day, but as of right now they’re otherwise planning to DFA them in the end of Spring Training cutdowns and hopefully get them through to AAA on Opening Day.

27.6% of games last year were started by LHP. The Orioles use McCann as C with Adley as DH against LHP quite often - that was their default lineup against LHP last year. There’s no need for Nevin to be a RH 1B/DH who starts ~5-10% of games, where Adley catches or gets a full day off against LHP, and sometimes pinch hits for O’Hearn. They’re much better off using that spot on Cowser, Kjerstad or even Hilliard, who can actually play the OF and be a LH bat that starts in some sizable chunk of the ~75% games started by RHP by giving days off for any of Hays, Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Santander and Mullins.

Agreed and even if Clase didn’t have those concerns, I don’t think it makes sense for the Orioles to trade any prospects better than Norby for a RP. And I’d be very reluctant to part with McDermott or Povich now that Burnes was the SP acquisition and he and Means are FA after this year - we are in much better shape if one of the AAA guys pans out as a SP for 2025 and we only fill one other rotation spot through FA/trade. I don’t think Elias would be in on a bigger name RP, but if we could get a solid setup type for Norby and/or some of the lesser non-SP prospects, I could see that. But I think they’re content to keep Norby and hope he either improves his trade value for a trade deadline RP with a first half more like his second half last year, or ultimately fits in as a righty 2B/LF bench guy.

I don’t think I’d give up what the Guardians are certainly asking for to get Clase.

EBJ’s line in 110 PA last year was hilarious: .291/.473/.329. 26 BB and 16 K. 25 SB and 2 CS. In 25 games! He’s like a video game create-a-player where all the sliders are at 100 except for power, which is 0.

EBJ is such an interesting player because power is the ONLY question with the bat. He’s got excellent contact ability, pitch recognition and chase rate. And he can even be successful hitting a ton of balls on the ground with his speed. He just needs to be able to unlock enough gap power that pitchers need to be slightly cautious when attacking him. And it’s not like EBJ is a small and physically limited guy. He’s skinny but he’s over 6 feet and not an overly narrow frame. It’s not even a Joey Ortiz situation where you need to get every last drop of power out of him. The Orioles got Joey Ortiz hitting balls with 115 EV so it just feels like they are going to figure something out with EBJ mechanically and he’s immediately going to be a huge prospect as soon as he starts hitting with any bit of line drive contact authority.

First impression is that this seems like a pretty bad deal for the Royals. They bought out 3 free agent years, but at $30-$35M each and the price was guaranteeing $140M in 4 consecutive opt out seasons for the player at $35M a year. That guaranteed money with 4 opt outs is massive value to the player. If I understand the contract correctly all those team options at the end are worthless because either he’ll opt out in one of the 4 years before that or he won’t be a good enough player at that time for the team to ever want to use them. Witt is a very good player but it’s not like his profile is without flaws. I don’t think I’d sign Gunnar to this deal.

I think teams that care about pitch modeling to capture “stuff” have their own proprietary versions with more inputs than what go into Stuff+, and I think the Orioles are one of those teams. They may not boil them down into a single number like Stuff+ but the Orioles definitely look at similar metrics. The Orioles pitchers were 3rd overall in Stuff+ last year (behind, not surprisingly, HOU and TB). 3rd for SP and 4th for RP. It’s not a coincidence. All of the waiver claim type RPs they’ve churned through in recent years ALWAYS have good Stuff+. López, Coulombe, Perez, Fuji, Baker, Webb…even guys like Reed Garrett and Eduardo Bazardo. So I don’t think the Orioles are using Stuff+ per se but I think they use something proprietary that is similar and they care about it a lot. And the other analytics heavy teams do too.

It’s definitely very possible Basallo will be MLB ready with the bat by mid August or September 1. Gunnar reached AA ball at the end of his age 20 season and was in the majors by that time the end of the next season. Holliday reached AAA by the end of his age 19 season and is (maybe) ready Opening Day of his age 20 season. Basallo reached AA by the end of his age 18 season and could be in AAA by the middle of his age 19 season the same time Gunnar was when he was 20, and earlier than Holliday was when he was 19. Basallo’s defense and the roster space are the big question marks. I think there’s almost no way they decide he’s defensively ready to be the sole backup C in 2024, and they’re not going to DFA McCann midseason. And even if he’s ready to handle big league pitching, we have so much depth we’re not really going to need his bat at 1B/DH. So it only makes sense if we have space to carry him as a 3rd C / extra bat, and they think he’ll be on the 2025 Opening Day roster regardless.

It depends. The 40 is not all that cramped right now. And there’s a lot of pitchers currently with one option left who by that point may be apparent they are not worth keeping in 2025 with no options (Zimmermann, Heasley, Vespi, Akin, Baker). If Basallo looks like he’ll for sure be on the Opening Day 2025 roster and he could be a benefit down the stretch and they have a 26-man spot for him (all significant “ifs”), I don’t think the 40-man spot will stop them from adding him this year. It’s possible he could also be the position player call up with the extra 2 roster spots on Sep 1. I think mid-August is most likely to be a potential date for Mayo, but Mayo will be ready before then. There just may not be the roster space without a trade or injury, and if it’s via a trading deadline trade then they’d only need to wait an additional 2 weeks for the <45 days cutoff.