CaptainRedbeard

RH 4th/5th OF with options is a good fit right now with McKenna out of options. Burdick’s whiff looks so bad he may not be a better hitter than McKenna even with the additional power, so a lot depends on defense and if the Orioles are even looking to use a bench spot (in addition to Mateo) on this type. But having options is very valuable, and the “power, walks, defense and bad hit tool” is clearly a profile the Orioles like and think they can do something with. He’s got a good chance to stick on the 40-man past Opening Day and be optioned to AAA. Hopefully somebody among Burdick, Fabian, Haskin, and Cook ultimately emerges as an improvement on McKenna (or at least McKenna 2.0 with options) as that RH all-3-OF-positions complimentary bench piece for all of our lefty OF in the pipeline, although Fabian may be the only plus defender in CF and he’s got a long ways to go.

The most interesting tidbits were that other teams were asking about De Leon and Liranzo in trades. There’s a trend in recent years where clubs like the Rays did a lot of scouting of opposing teams’ DSL/FCL leagues to target guys in trades before those teams really knew what they had. I think that’s a more well known strategy and less of a “market inefficiency” and a lot of teams do that now. De Leon obviously graduated from those levels last year so a bit different, but I think that’s noteworthy that other teams specifically like these guys as well. Maybe they read Tony’s write up of Liranzo Seems like a lot of great candidates for breakouts this year, Liranzo maybe at the top of that list. Should be starting to enter the time when the revamped international program really starts to pay off.

Thanks @Frobby. @Can_of_corn, I’m not sure what I said that’s got under your skin, but I don’t think any of the top 100 rankings for Mayo or Basallo are disrespectful. And I certainly don’t think it’s anything like “the national media is out to get the Orioles!” In fact, when it comes to prospect rankings, I think it cuts the other way and the Orioles system is so lauded that the Orioles hitting prospects can get overrated. Enrique Bradfield Jr is the most prominent example. He was drafted mid-1st round and is cracking top 100 lists already, that requires belief that he’s going to be able to make mechanical adjustments to develop his power and I think people are more inclined to believe the Orioles system is capable of doing that. My point was that just by going by their offensive age-adjusted production, Mayo and Basallo had exceptional seasons that are pretty rare, and I think it’s gone under the radar just how much so that was the case. Being #1 and 4 prospects by this methodology, which by the sounds of it is pretty much just looking at that and adding in Statcast data, is evidence of that. They outperform even Holliday by this methodology, who in his own right had an exceptional age 19 year but presumably is ranked lower due to lesser power and the Statcast incorporation. Holliday is the consensus #1 overall prospect and Basallo and Mayo generally are viewed at least a cut below his tier, and that is correct due to the massive difference in defensive value. I said already I don’t necessarily disagree where they are ranked on top 100 lists for that reason. But purely offensively, Basallo and Mayo put up seasons that place them within the very top tier of prospect production. It’s not like I’m saying that the projection systems are biased because they project the Orioles to win 86 games

This is precisely what I mean by “under the radar.” Of course he’s rocketing up lists and I’m not even saying he necessarily should rank higher on top 100 lists, because they should consider defense in a way that (I presume) this Roboscout methodology does not. But I don’t think there’s widespread recognition that Basallo’s age 18 offensive season was this rare.

From the consolidated top 100 thread: Basallo 10, 17, 13, 27, 20, 20 Mayo 25, 30, 15, 19, 27, 12 Both rank much higher by this methodology which is just using their age-adjusted numbers and Statcast data. A lot of that difference is the defense, and perhaps rightfully so. But my point was I think it’s gone under the radar just how exceptional they were offensively at their ages and levels, when half the time they are bucketed in that 20-30 range. I also think amongst Orioles fans if we hadn’t just gone Rutschman-Gunnar-Holliday there would be more excitement for these two. Maybe not necessarily on the OH.

I’m assuming Kjerstad gets dinged because of the age. He’s a weird case where he didn’t have his first real action until he was 24 (and he did play in 2022, but wasn’t really back to being himself until the end of that season/AFL). It’s very unusual in that he was a 24 year old who did good-not-great at AAA, but that performance in your first full year as a pro means there’s probably more untapped potential there than your typical 25 year old (like Joey Ortiz, who is pretty much maxed out and just barely cracked the list). What Mayo and Basallo did last year at their respective ages was amazing. It feels like it’s gone overlooked because they’re following Gunnar, and Holliday was doing it at the same time and they both have defensive question marks, but they really look like the potential future true middle of the order bats that we’re lacking. Sky high upside.

I see why Law is down on Cowser relative to others, but Law still calls him a 55 defender in a corner with a 70 arm who can handle center on a short term basis, and a “good 4th outfielder right now” who can really hit fastballs. I see how that’s not a top 100 player, but that profile is still going to produce a ton of value unless he’s really, really bad against offspeed, even if he’s not a starter against LHP. And Law does still have him as the 1st prospect after Bradfield, the last Oriole on his top 100, so he’s not taking that bold of a position on him I don’t think Cowser has a 4+ WAR upside unless he makes some big strides but I feel pretty good about him being a 2-3 WAR complimentary player that checks a lot of good boxes. Lefty, really great eye (probably will benefit greatly from robo umps, however they ultimately get implemented), defense to play LF at OPACY or RF.

I agree with you, it seems very aggressive. It’s the reference to his underlying metrics that is most encouraging to me, I wish he had cited the specific figures. We’re never going to have access to those, so they must have been really good and the type that stabilize very quickly to support this ranking. He wouldn’t rank a guy who he had as #230 predraft this high if he just had some BABIP luck in his ~100 PA debut.

Kind of under the radar because he just cracked the list spot on the list and McDaniel didn’t do a write up, but I think it’s not super common for him to put a 40 FV on a pure RP prospect like Gillies. For instance, Sharkey is not cracking this list. Longenhagen at FG takes the same approach with FVs and he has in recent years had guys like Bautista, Baker, Cano all as 35+, which is kind of the default for a solid RP prospect. Gillies is really interesting IMO. He was 25 last year but totally dominated A+ and AA in what was basically his first full season. He’s rule 5 eligible after this season so he very well could be added to get a taste of MLB action down the stretch this year. 6’8” with a big fastball and interesting breakers is a lot to work with and even at his age, the projection systems like him a lot for a guy who has only pitched a little bit at AA.

That description does sound exactly like Blake Snell. Except Povich is not averaging 96 mph with his fastball, and has a cutter in the mix and Snell is just the 4 pitches. Or maybe somebody like Daisuke Matsuzaka. The “nibbler” approach can be pretty frustrating to watch so I hope Povich adjusts towards more consistent strike throwing. Wish Kiley had given some commentary on McDermott - he’s definitely on an island in terms of being that down on McDermott and that high on Povich.

Definitely, he said he had Etzel #230 in his draft rankings so he liked him more than his draft position, but still a 7th rounder. It’s putting a lot of weight on his stellar month long debut, and he mentioned that the underlying metrics supported the numbers. Etzel is looking like a steal in the 10th round for sure but this is very aggressive in buying all the way into his limited first taste of pro action.

This is what they’ll probably do, but if they have him on the Opening Day roster they should have him leading off immediately maximize PA and his chances at ROY. There’s also no obvious alternative. Adley they don’t like leading off, Gunnar is a better fit later with his power and Mullins doesn’t quite have the OBP. Holliday Adley Gunnar Santander is the perfect 1-4.

I think that’s the type of deal he’ll get and it’s well worth the risk IMO, but I don’t think the Orioles have done more than like minor league contracts or small guaranteed money for injured/poor health history pitchers. They haven’t really signed many of them at all to any type of deal, even before Elias when they spent more money. I can’t remember a single deal like the one Woodruff will get.

Woodruff would be amazing but I can’t remember the Orioles ever committing significant money to an injured pitcher, or even a healthy pitcher with a bad injury history. Even Elias has gone exclusively for the super durable types - Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, Burnes. Woodruff would be a big departure, especially considering how much more willing big market teams tend to be to throw some money on injured lottery tickets, but a welcome one.

Good blurb from Kiley McDaniel at ESPN on Povich, who he has always liked. He has him ranked at #119 overall and the #7 Orioles prospect behind Bradfield. Povich made last year's Top 100 and largely held serve on the field but moved down a bit because I thought he'd have a breakthrough and he merely made just some progress. His walk rate isn't very indicative of his command, more of his style of pitching as some advanced metrics of rival teams give him average big league command right now. He has a bevy of slightly to clearly above-average pitches but not many true plus qualities -- look for a 2024 debut from him.

This Marlins guy said after the Burnes trade that the Marlins thought they were getting Ortiz in a Luzardo deal (presumably with other big pieces) and basically now don’t know what to do. The Orioles and Marlins were at least talking so maybe there’s some ability to refocus on Scott or another RP they have, although the caliber of players will be wildly different.

PCL offensive environment is crazy. The .736 full season line was only a 83 wRC+!

With the Burnes trade, the timeline for the acquisition has much less implication. Elias pretty much said they are done with big offseason acquisitions. Still like hearing it should move quickly. Would be pretty cool to have Rubenstein in official control by Opening Day.

Young, two options, decent year in 2022 at AA at age 22. If you pretend 2023 didn’t happen he might be interesting, but unfortunately he was not very good in AAA. Elias may not have thought much beyond “open 40 man spot and lefty hitting IF on waivers? Claim him.”

The top comment on the article is “452,331 is now my least favorite number.” Personally I think that must have accidentally simulated a typical Ravens preseason. (Ravens: “Just our two best players? Deal.”).

You’re right, it was one ball in CF. He only played 20 innings and had 6 plays out there. However, the one he misplayed was such a horrible route I remember it very well, it was rare to see at the major league level. It had a 95% catch probability on Savant. They shut down the Mateo in CF experiment after that. I think Mateo in practice probably will play nearly every game against lefties, but not to platoon Gunnar or Holliday. Gunnar and Holliday absolutely need to be getting reps against LHP even if they’re doing terrible against them (which they won’t), at this stage of their careers they need those PA to make adjustments and eventually it won’t be a weakness (if it ever even looks like one for Holliday at the MLB level, and Gunnar already showed improvement over the course of last year). Assuming Mateo’s the backup CF, he’ll probably play nearly every game against lefties and one of Gunnar/Holliday/Mullins will get a day off or DH. Maybe Urias takes more of the IF opportunities and Mateo plays less, but Urias is not a great LHP platoon option with his splits. I think they’re making the right call to have Mateo play CF a lot in spring training. He didn’t have the reps last year and he does have plenty of past CF experience before joining the Orioles. He’s got exceptional speed and a good arm. If Mateo comes into Spring Training with a full offseason and looks like he’s smoothed out his routes and fly ball judgment as expected, McKenna doesn’t offer anything over Mateo in CF that justifies an additional roster spot.

I’m of the opinion that if you have a guy like Ortiz who should be a MLB starter but has no place to play, you should be able to get more value out of them by trading them. But if you have guys like Stowers and Norby, who are a step or two below and are probably more likely solid bench players, there’s value in keeping them around in AAA while they have options which could be equivalent to their trade value. If you can get more value for them by trading them then by all means, but there’s no need to force the issue. They are great trade chips if needed but they’re still worth their 40-man space (and Norby isn’t even on it yet) and providing depth value probably close to their trade value.

Now that we are in discussion season about who makes the Opening Day roster, who gets traded for space, and whether guys like Stowers and Norby need to be traded, I thought this part of the ZIPS record projections that just came out was really relevant. Basically, ZIPS handles injuries in a more sophisticated manner than most projection systems and because of the Orioles’ depth, particularly position player depth, they project to be 1st in the AL East at 90 wins ahead of the Yankees at 88, unlike the PECOTA and Fangraphs Depth Chart projections that also just came out. I’m guessing that Elias agrees with this mentality, with his fascination with deep depth and even signing guys like Frazier, and (thus far) holding onto Mateo, Urias and O’Hearn, at the expense of keeping “blocked” prospects in AAA. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/ I’m from Baltimore, but I would hope last year’s projection miss would disavow anyone of the notion that I weight these team standings toward my personal preferences. The Orioles – and last year’s Orioles – do a bit better in my methodology than others, I suspect because of the weight I deal with depth. In those seasons in which they lose players, especially offensive ones, the team’s depth keeps the falloff from being too dire. Even in simulation no. 452,331, in which the O’s lose both Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschmann to season-ending injuries before the first game, the team still finished 84-78!

I don’t think McKenna hits lefties better than Mateo. ZIPS projects him for slightly better OBP vs lefties but much worse SLG: .220/.301/.367. Pretty similarly terrible. McKenna is an actual OF and can play CF fine, though. I don’t think he’s stellar out there but if Mateo is not better, which he might not be, then McKenna does still have a leg up on him there.

Maybe it is a park thing, where they would be ok with Urias vs RHP on the road but at home still want a lefty because of the park factor, even if Urias is fine against RHP. That’s a really niche role, but at the same time if Maton makes the team he should not play much at all. He’ll play sometimes at home against RHP who don’t have good changeups/splitters?