CaptainRedbeard

Not only is this incorrect about Grayson today (he averaged 97.1 compared to 97.4 last year, and hit 99 more than once), but it’s also false that pitchers’ velos are generally down by much at all at the start of the season. At the start of Spring Training, yes, some pitchers build up more slowly. But by the time Opening Day rolls around pitchers are generally up to speed. Grayson was actually a perfect example of that - he was down a tick or two in early spring starts but today he was right where he was last year. Any pitcher’s velo being down by more than 2 mph compared to the prior season is a big red flag that something is potentially not right with them physically. And the start of the season is the most critical time for injuries as pitchers have been ramping up. Hoping Webb today was due to a crazy few days with the new baby and not anything else. Tate, however, after his injuries last year is just a really bad sign.

If Webb was actually hitting 94 mph in spring training then I’m far less worried and it probably is lack of sleep. No way he should have been active if he was that underslept, though…he’s allowed to be on paternity list for 3 games. Really poor mismanagement by him and/or the team, ultimately didn’t matter in the slightest though.

Jacob Webb is apparently down 3 mph from last year, just like Tate. Cionel Pérez had terrible spring training and now a core/oblique injury, perhaps it’s been bothering him all spring (although his velo was fine). Could easily see Vespi for Perez IL tomorrow and wouldn’t be surprised to see Baker for Tate soon. I don’t see how they can carry both Tate and Webb clearly working through much worse velo than they should have. They can’t option Webb, so I expect he’ll hit the IL if that velo doesn’t start coming back soon. Not an ideal start to the season for the pen health-wise.

Yeah early in the season Hyde definitely likes to get everyone in there quickly to get their feet under them. I expect Cowser, O’Hearn and Kemp to be starting today, and one of Hays/Mountcastle to be out (probably Mountcastle?). McCann will be starting Sunday. Will be a good test to see if Westburg is going to be more of an “everyday” guy than last year if he’s at 3B with Urias on the bench today (and Kemp at 2B). Especially since Westburg DH’d game 1, that’s what I’m expecting today at least.

Quintessential DL Hall stat line for the first start.

Yeah, the Stuff+ numbers from yesterday are on Fangraphs now and his sinker was at 74. Horrible. I’m surprised the Orioles even put him on the Opening Day roster if this has been his velo all spring, I’d think at least Baker should be ahead of Tate until Tate shows his velo is back (or at least that he shows he can be effective against AAA hitters at this velo). I think Tate is going to be the first one to AAA for a fresh arm, not Akin.

I’m glad Tate has options because I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s going to need some time in the minors. I’m rooting for him but I hope he doesn’t get appearances in any close games until he’s shown to be trustworthy again.

It was great to get a look at those 3 guys yesterday because the Orioles are going to need at least one or two from that group to step up big this year. My observations: Tate’s velo was way, way down from when he was last healthy, over 3 mph. However, the movement on the sinker looked pretty good. I know he’s a very analytically oriented pitcher, so I wonder if he made conscious adjustments somehow for more movement and it’s not just that he has diminished velo after the injury? And perhaps trying to max his velo got him hurt before? That’s the only positive spin I can put on it, not a lot of successful 90 mph sinkerballers having success in the majors. His command was horrible, but I won’t read too much into that yet, he may have had some nerves and by the stats he didn’t have any issues like that in Spring Training. Baumann made some dramatic changes to his set up, with his front leg very open. Quite unusual. It didn’t look like it helped at all from a command standpoint, he was almost as bad as Tate. However he was really slinging it, and his fastball at 98/99 with a nice bump in spin rate too looks like a potentially dominant heater. I’m cautiously optimistic with him. Akin didn’t look dramatically different, but healthy now, and easily pitched the best of the 3 command-wise. When he’s going well his fastball plays way above it’s velo and that’s what he looked like yesterday and apparently all Spring Training.

Velo and spin rates on all of his cutter, slider and curve were up a tick compared to last year. Burnes’ velo had been eroding the last couple years so that’s a great sign. Burnes’ ability to spin the ball is crazy - truly one of the elite in the game at that. He’s around 3000 RPMs on both breaking balls and 2750 on the cutter yesterday. He’s going to be so fun to watch this year.

Good list. I think Gillies and Armbruester have a pretty decent chance, dependent on how they do this year of course. They might even make major league appearances this year, particularly Armbruester. I’d tier them above the rest of the “unlikely” group.

Montgomery has been and is projected to be about a 3 WAR SP. He’s projected as the #30 best starter by Fangraphs Depth Charts for 2024. He’s not flashy or a real top of the rotation guy because he doesn’t get a lot of K’s and he doesn’t have good stuff, but he’s pretty darn good at everything else, particularly being durable. The durability is something Elias has shown to really value in a SP too. All of his SP acquisitions - Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, Burnes - have great track records of durability. I don’t think Montgomery is good enough to warrant a 5+ year deal or more than about $100M guaranteed, but he’d be a great pickup on the 2 yr with an opt out structure. His age and durability minimizes the risk of a major injury leaving us stuck with a bad year 2 player option and he’s a good bet to deliver or exceed his salary in 2024.

Mountcastle has had xwOBAs of .362 and .356 the last two years, with actual wOBAs of .316 and .333. A lot of that is the wall and some of it may be just his batted ball distribution, but I have to think some of it is just bad luck. He’s been making some incremental improvements in his approach each year, BBs going up and Ks going down. He’s 27, career peak age. He’s my pick to exceed expectations the most.

If the Orioles sign Montgomery and he gets inserted into the #5 spot in the rotation to bump out Irvin…he’ll be followed in the rotation by Burnes. Montgomery Burnes. Needs to happen.

I’ll be shocked if Montgomery signs a long term deal that doesn’t have an opt out after year 1. If he was going to do that, he’d have taken that deal by now. I think the Yankees are most likely. They have a big need at SP, especially with Cole hurt, and a lot riding on this year. They’ve blown past luxury tax thresholds before when they need to. After that, Red Sox as they’ve been connected to Montgomery all offseason, and probably have the money. Beyond that? I think the Orioles are as likely a team as any other. And they’re certainly a better option for a 1 yr deal than pitching in NYY or BOS. Astros were rumored in on Snell but up against the luxury tax. Phillies were rumored in on the Boras guys if it got cheap, but their rotation is already quite good and they also are up against the luxury tax too. Diamondbacks have Ed Rod hurt, but already increased payroll a lot. Angels want SP and may have money but are horrible. Anybody else? Maybe the Mets? Already into 110% luxury tax range. Cubs? Already pushed payroll for Bellinger. Cardinals? Maybe? Made a lot of additions this offseason already, I’m not sure they have another $25M+ in them. Enough teams should be in the conversation that he’ll still get something around Snell and it’s not likely to be the Orioles, but I think their odds are better than most. They make more sense than most of those other teams if they are actually willing to bump the payroll for Montgomery.

Why though? I expect Montgomery to sign a 2 yr deal for $50-60M with an opt out, like Snell but maybe a bit cheaper. Why is it minuscule odds that the Orioles would be willing to offer that? Or minuscule odds that Montgomery would choose the Orioles with comparable offers from other teams? I don’t think the Orioles are particularly likely to sign him just because there’s probably a handful of teams in on him, including larger market teams that usually come away with the top free agents. But all of those teams are up against the luxury tax right now. If Rubenstein is in fact willing to run higher payrolls than what Angelos ok’d for this year with Burnes, the Orioles should be able to make an equivalent offer. I don’t think their odds should be any worse than others.

There’s no pick for Montgomery now, but otherwise completely agreed. Plus the Giants and Angels were the only other teams known to be in on SP, the Giants signed Snell and the Angels have not been connected with Montgomery. I also think the fact that Montgomery hasn’t thrown for teams like Snell did could indicate he has a deal in place already, and has just been waiting for Opening Day. That doesn’t mean it’s with the Orioles, though.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are plenty of teams with long term deals on the table, but the AAVs are too low such that the 2 yr / opt out structure is preferable.

Right, it’s a different date. It’s so Montgomery can’t get QO’d. And I answered my own question for Snell (and Bellinger and Chapman) - they just had the QO, so they can’t get QO’d again. Montgomery doesn’t have one now, he can. I suppose once it became clear Montgomery was going to go for a deal with an opt out after year 1, it never made sense to sign before Opening Day.

To be eligible for the QO you have to spend the whole season with a team, designed so traded guys can’t get a QO. But if they sign after Opening Day, they haven’t spent the whole season with a team - so not eligible for a QO. And I would think it’s counted based on that team’s season, so the Dodgers/Padres serious doesn’t count (except for those teams).

Yes, and if you think about it, it actually makes it a bit surprising that Snell signed when he did instead of waiting like Montgomery. Why didn’t Snell wait a couple weeks? Miss a couple starts but not get the QO, probably on net still better for his free agency next year? Maybe the Giants met his asking price because they were afraid of the big bad Orioles throwing some cash around after Opening Day with their new owner? And it’s also SUPER strange that Snell had this whole “throw for teams” showcase and Montgomery hasn’t. Same agent, same situation. Feels like Montgomery doesn’t have to sell that he’s ready to go because he already has his deal lined up and they’ve just been waiting for Opening Day to put pen to paper.

The Orioles make a LOT of sense from Montgomery’s perspective. LHP in OPACY, good team. Perfect for a 1-yr contract. No luxury tax concerns, wait until after Opening Day so he can’t get QO’d and that’s conveniently when the new owner is signing the checks. Also checks the obvious boxes of need for the Orioles, although we get so little leaks in the media about the Orioles’ degree of interest in any one player that it’s hard to know if Elias thinks he’s worth what he’s asking. He at least checks the “no long term deals” box. Otherwise the only question is how much payroll flexibility the Orioles truly have and whether there’s a more desperate team that will outbid the Orioles and incur the luxury tax to do it. I don’t think the Orioles will be desperate and their payroll plans are a mystery. But if the money is equal I’d think Montgomery would choose the Orioles over a lot of places.

Broadly, Basallo, the CF prospects and the pitching prospects, because everyone else is going to be thoroughly blocked in this organization unless they end up really exceptional prospects. To pick 2: Jud Fabian I’ll be following really closely early in the season, because if he doesn’t have a dramatic reduction in his K rate repeating AA he’s going to have a real tough shot at being a MLB player. But if he does, I like his chances a lot at being a righty 4th OF / backup CF to complement all the lefty OF. Trace Bright because I was super impressed by his Statcast numbers in the Spring Breakout game. I think his ceiling is a lot higher than he’s given credit for in a lot of his prospect evals. He reached AA in his first season and has the full arsenal of a MLB SP, and not just back-end SP guy stuff. It’s all going to come down to the progression of his command.

Grayson and Kremer’s velo was definitely down early in spring training, and I haven’t seen them in Statcast games recently. I won’t be too concerned if they come out in their first starts and the velo is close to normal. But they did have much bigger workloads last year than in their prior seasons so that will be a concern that it’s a sign something is not quite right physically if it’s lingering. We are really relying on those two now down Bradish and Means and can’t afford to have them take a step back from last year. Beyond that I’m not particularly concerned about any one player, although I think the team really needs another reliever or two to step up to being reliable setup guys with Cano and Coulombe.

Long term it doesn’t make sense to have Nevin around just to DH against LHP SP and pinch hit for O’Hearn or Cowser when only ~20% of games are started by LHP, especially when McCann is going to start many of those games with Adley DHing as they did last year. It’s just a really inefficient use of that roster spot, and if Holliday were in it instead that would push Urias to the bench as the extra RH bat (since they are still going to want to start Holliday a fair bit against LHP to get that experience, and Mateo will play against LHP too). But if they’re facing more LHP SP in the first couple weeks, and there’s a number of built in off days in April so Adley can probably catch more, it makes more sense as a temporary fit. And kicks the can down the road on keeping Nevin around as depth for injuries early in the season if they expect him to get claimed when they DFA him. There’s also just the fact that, notwithstanding his spring training, Nevin isn’t a good player. He’s a RH hitter with not enough power to be valuable considering he doesn’t offer defensive value beyond the “flexibility” to be a bad defender at the corner spots. He’s 26 years old and in 313 MLB PA has a wRC+ of 79. He’s a quintessential AAAA guy.

I think the Orioles sent Holliday down with the intent of getting the extra year of control, but there’s some slim possibility that they are potentially doing it for just the two weeks to essentially give him extended spring training with more starts at 2B and appearances against LHP, while they instead use that roster spot on Tyler Nevin for an extra RH bat while the MLB team faces a bunch of LHP SP early. Then they could call Holliday up before the deadline for the extra year of control and still have him ROY eligible. I wouldn’t do that myself but I can kind of see the logic in it. He only had 18 games in AAA last year. Another 12 on top of the Spring Training time this year is still a meaningful amount, but doesn’t really hurt his ROY chances (especially with a lot of those games he would be missing being against LHP). And would keep Nevin in the org for a little bit longer before they have to DFA him, if they’re worried about that for some reason (I’m not…). They’re technically not committing to either path yet. The real hard deadline for the decision of ROY vs. service time is in ~2 weeks. Of course, if they keep Wong or even McKenna instead of Nevin, that indicates they’re thinking more long term about the bench than just trying to optimize it for the 2 weeks with a bunch of LHP on deck before calling up Holliday. So will be curious to see the choice there and if that indicates anything.