Filmstudy

McNally (15-0 in 1969) and Rhodes (9-0 in 1996) are the only 2 Orioles other than Baumann ever to start 9-0 or better. Has he vulched some wins? Sure, but tonight he inherited a tie game with runners at the corners and 1 out, got a DP on 3 pitches, and pitched another full inning on 7 more pitches while the team scored him 8 runs. Not only did he save the game, but he's ready to pitch again on Saturday, if needed. Over his last 15 outings (since 6/24) his line: IP: 17.1 H: 12 BB: 9 K: 14 HR: 0 IR: 10 IS: 2 ERA: 1.04 W/L: 5-0 He's supplanted Baker and still ahead of Fuji in terms of his worthiness for high-leverage situations.

In terms of who we WANT to start G1, it's an easy answer for me...Grayson. If he is the guy tabbed for G1 of the WS, that means his development/success has continued from these last 3 starts and I don't think it has to say anything bad about Flaherty, Bradish, Gibson, Kremer, Wells, Irvin, Means, etc. If he is ready to start G1, it will be because he's clearly the best starter on his own merits.

For the series against the Jays, the O's went 13/39 (.333) with runners in scoring position and the Jays went 2/29 (.069). The stake is not all the way through this Blue Jays team, but this felt like some sweet revenge for 1985, 1989, 1992, and 2016 when the Jays administered the (effective) death blow to the Orioles each season.

Fuji's consecutive RBI HBPs is a first in Orioles regular-season history (91st and 92nd such events). However, Tippy and Dennis Martinez hit consecutive Pirates with the bases loaded in the 9th inning of G7 of the 1979 WS to all but put a stake in that great season.

Completely concur here. Flaherty was the exact opposite end of the spectrum to complement current strengths and OPACY configuration.

I can't give one grade on these 2 moves. Fuji A-: Good shot at upside that will really work out if it does and Lucas is not a significant prospect, IMO. Only reason this is not an A+ move is that the Orioles are going to take some actual ML risk with Fuji's wildness that could still bite them. Flaherty D : The Orioles gave up some real talent (even if some blocked) to get a guy who may fill some innings, but I can't even find a split that leads me to optimism. Leverage has not been his friend, the needle hasn't moved much by month, and LHB absolutely crush him (140 OPS+ with much of that coming in the form of a .403 OBP). Add that to OPACY configuration and you have a recipe for failure. If he takes starts from Kremer, I think he's taking innings from a better pitcher. The only thing I can say is the Orioles must like him for some reason and maybe they can fix him, but he's 100% not built for our ballpark.

Baker vs Baumann is the big question for me. Baker in July didn't have an awful month in terms of his own ERA, but allowed 8 of 10 inherited runners to score, which is why there seems to be such a correlation between his appearances and screaming at the TV set at my house. Baumann, OTOH, has pitched in some high-leverage situations and despite similar erratic control, has allowed just 6 of his last 20 inherited runners to score since 6/1. Baumann is a guy I trust more in the all-important runner on 2nd/0 outs situation.

Magic numbers for the Orioles vs other AL East teams through games of 8/1: TB: 53 (T) Tor: 47 Bos: 47 (T) NY: 44 (T) indicates the season series is not yet determined, but winning either would drop magic number by 1 more. The Orioles obviously need to hit all of these to win the AL East, but if they fail to win the division, each is still important for WC. BTW, simplest magic number method I know is 163 - (Orioles Wins) - (Opp Losses) - (1 if the tiebreaker has been won)

Variation on the old poker adage "You make most of your money by folding."

Baumann is in rarified air at 8-0. McNally was 15-0 on this date (7/31) in 1969. Grant Jackson, 8-0 in 1973, has the most wins without a loss in a single RS for the Orioles.

Carlson is just entering arbitration in 2024. He's young, but an average player in aggregate (.503 career WAA). That can certainly contribute to a contender. I don't know what they had in mind for him, but I like Cowser better for the rest of 2023 and Colton has 3 additional years of team control.

Magic Number vs the Yankees is 50 and it will drop to 47 with 1 more win in the next 2 games (due to sealing the season series).

The O's magic number vs the Yankees is currently 50, but it will drop to 47 if they win either of the next 2 games and 45 if they win both.

Yup. I'd veto that as well. 1 fairly good and 1 bad rental for 2 months each. Plus they'll owe Kelly another $1M buyout at the end of the season or pay him $9.5M in 2024. And neither of these guys is suddenly going to be able to throw lefthanded, which is the O's big need.

Holliday is not in the lineup for Bowie today. Has anyone heard of either an injury or promotion? Having your star take off the day after an off-day seems a little strange, but there may be another personal reason as well.

I think I have to pass on Matz despite the desire to acquire LH arms. He's consistently allowed over 1 hit per IP and has allowed 1.4 HR/9 career playing in some decent pitcher's parks. I think if the O's take him they essentially trade nothing in terms of a prospect and the Cards eat some salary. This is a pure cash dump for the Cards. I really hate to think this might happen, but would the Orioles essentially sell a redundant prospect for cash using such a deal? So Prieto goes, the Cards pick up $20M of $28M or the Cards offer an alternative where the Orioles give a player to be named later that is not expected to be good but take $21M of the $28M cost of Matz? Essentially, this would mean Prieto is sold for $13M. Elias has to play within parameters he's given, but I truly hate selling prospects.

Bringing the Unswept information current through the win over the Phillies on 7/25/23: It has now been well over a season since the Orioles have been swept in a series of 2+ games. The last time it occurred was 5/13-15/2022 at the Tigers. Since that time, they have played series of: 5 games: 1 4 games: 14 3 games: 52 (includes the Phillies series played as scheduled) 2 games: 6 1 game: 3 times (lost 2 of 3 of those single games) Assuming each of the next 2 games are played as scheduled, the Orioles will reach 229 games without being swept (they are 227 right now, even if the next 2 games are postponed). Considering only the series of 2+ games, if the games were each coin flips, the chance to avoid a series sweep over that time would be .0000673901 (approximately 1 in 14,839). Per u/Dontich on r/orioles, the Orioles now hold the all-time AL record previously held by the Blue Jays which, based on differences in definition could be 199, 200, 225, or 226 games. Several NL teams have had longer streaks, but the longest postwar streak is either 232 or 234 by the 2003-05 Braves. The Orioles will need 1 win vs the Yankees and 1 win vs the Blue Jays to move past the Braves.

This.

Right now, Hays is ice cold and his bat is killing the lineup (.184/.212/.286) in July. Compounding the situation, Hyde bats him leadoff a fair amount against LHP where his low BB rate hurts more. The lineup is very solid vs RHP, but in order to protect all of the LHB, they need another big RH bat.

I love it. Great video of HRs and strikeouts with lots of mirroring images and smoke effects. I think most of us have expressed concerns about the sustainability of their win percentage with the current run differential, but the club has made callups to solidify the lineup and are in a position to trade for pitching if the price is right.

Right on the money.

No players, only items 1-4. It's a thought experiment, not an actual trade.

Holliday traded to oblivion. He doesn't go to a divisional rival, if that's the question.

Would you give up Jackson Holliday for the following: 1. Angelos replaced by Steve Bisciotti as owner 2. The Orioles sign a 40-year lease which is prohibitively expensive to break 3. Bisciotti extends Elias/Mejdal for 10 years 4. No promises about signing the young talent to long extensions, but Bisciotti and Elias apply the Ravens' cap management philosophy to the team and have a "qualify for the playoffs as often as possible" approach As much as I love the prospect of Jackson Holliday here in Baltimore for the foreseeable future, I make that trade in a heartbeat.

I personally like the thought experiment. As a Ravens season ticket holder, I would absolutely hate if they adopted the Rams' philosophy, trading every 1st-round pick and nuking their cap to play the roller-coaster parity win. I even hate the fact the Rams made it work once since the cries for the Ravens to do so continue. I'd apply the same to baseball, where I no longer have season tickets and go to perhaps 12-15 games a year and watch the rest. I don't want years of walking through the desert in exchange for a single flag. The team should be competitive for years, particularly if the front office can be maintained. There is good chance their expected WS wins is less than 1 over the next 5-7 years, but I prefer to enjoy the ride.