oriole

I thought long term contracts were too risky for the Orioles? Who approved this nonsense?!? I expect to see Elias walk as soon as he possibly can. For his sake, I hope he didn’t sign anything too long term. For me and the rest of the Orioles fan community, I hope he is here for the long haul.

I’ll take Hays. I think he probably played injured in the second half and that’s what ultimately made such a steep drop off so assuming he can stay healthy, I think he’s got more upside. He can be more helpful on the bases and in the field but it’s no doubt that Santander has the edge on him regarding power. I also have my doubts that Santander will keep up his walk rate. I dunno though, they’re very evenly matched I think overall. I think I have some bias towards Hays because he was drafted by the O’s and there’s something about a player that doesn’t have to adjust his batting gloves every 2 seconds that I like. I do like a switch hitter though…has me second guessing myself and I haven’t even pressed Submit Reply yet.

Super rich people live in an alternate reality it seems like and it’s interactions like this that make me say so. What kind of response is this? I feel bad for his maids and drivers he has to interact with after this. His glass of milk served to him before his servants tuck him in to bed will never be the right temperature. Good lord.

The optimistic outlook is very good. Rodriguez could be a TOR starter, Rutschman could be a MVP candidate, Henderson ROY candidate, Mullins could trend towards his 2021 numbers…even lesser things like Frazier returning to around 100 OPS+ type of guy, Mountcastle escaping his bad luck streak…I could go on and on. There’s just a lot to be positive about because none of what I said is particularly outlandish. Of course, the same could be said in the pessimist direction too. Injuries, difficulty adjusting to the majors, regression since last years team did play over their head a bit. I like the optimist outlook better though. Ill go with 90 wins as the optimist and 70 wins as the pessimist.

I’d have preferred to keep Diaz over this guy but it seemed inevitable he’d be designated again anyways so I guess it doesn’t matter who is replacing him. Hernandez looks like he’s gonna suck though. Why can’t they just add good players?

Can I pick the year? A 2013 Chris Davis sure would be nice

Bundy is an interesting idea. He got hit hard by right handed hitters last year but was really effective vs lefties. And his numbers for 1st time through the lineup were really good last year and not terrible throughout the rest of his career. He could be an above average middle reliever if he’s willing to take on that role. But considering Gibson got $10 million and a guaranteed starters role then I’m sure Bundy thinks he can get something similar.

The Marlins signing Cueto makes their rotation even more crowded. I’m hoping it’s in anticipation of a trade and that the trade is with the Orioles.

Interesting that they’re all fairly high on Hall. Not a great year at any level last year. Not saying a bounce back isn’t going to happen but I’d guess he’s going to be more of a high 4 ERA kinda guy til he’s not or fades into obscurity. I certainly wouldn’t be predicting a sub-4 ERA until he shows he’s capable of it.

The optimist in me thinks they can match last years 83 wins, the realist thinks that it’ll be closer to 80 wins. That means this prediction looks pessimistic to me. This is not a team that will win enough even for a wild card but they’ll make it interesting enough. Good business plan I guess. Develop a cheap kinda good team that keep fans engaged but don’t actually put any real effort (money) to actually win outside of luck and good fortune. Make lots of money without spending much. Good for them I have to say though, I would be very surprised if they won more than they did last year but not as surprised as I’d be if they won less than 77.

Solid prediction. I think only Vavras spot is up for grabs and possibly Stowers if he doesn’t look very good in ST. McKenna is also replaceable but there’s no one currently in the organization that could play his role.

Sorry, didn’t mean to go off topic! I thought you meant overall offseason. I don’t like a lot of the contracts that have been signed and so it’s easier, in my mind, to think of ways to spread around the value in the organization by means of targeting trade scenarios. Without going into specifics, what I’d have liked to see is a couple difference makers signed. Gibson and Frazier aren’t going to push this team past 4th place so what even is the point?

Good question. Reynolds is a better hitter and I had thought a comparable defender to Mullins but I just compared their defensive numbers and that’s not the case. So, they might be more even head to head than I’d have guessed previously. If I had to guess which player has another 5+ WAR season I’d probably have to guess Reynolds but that’s mostly based on Mullins’ inability to hit left handed pitching.

Maybe but you may also be over valuing your teams prospects. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle

Well, I’m basing the values off the baseball trade values page where Holliday is not worth even half that of Reynolds. So, my apologies if it seems laughable. Makes sense to me but I also don’t expect Holliday in Baltimore any sooner than 2025. 2024 seems really aggressive for a team that does not aggressively promote players.

I see 2023-2027 as a fair competitive window. Who would you expect to provide more value within that time frame? Reynolds in years 2023-2025 or Holliday in years 2025-2027? Personally, I’d prefer the proven talent. Not every #1 prospect pans out and if Holliday really is as valuable as you allude to then maybe something like Holliday and Stowers alone could get it done. But the fact that the Pirates would undoubtedly hang up if that was the offer shows you that’s it not quite as clear as you’re thinking.

Mullins would make a better LF with his arm. It’s definitely reasonable to question adding Peguero in the deal, I just don’t have much faith that the infield prospects on hand will add up to much. I also tried to make it make sense in that Pittsburgh also has a lot of infielders on hand and it makes sense to me to try and move Urias while he any value. Anyways, I think Reynolds is a good target but he won’t be cheap. I probably don’t have the right pretend package to get him but I’ve never been great at those. Maybe instead of getting Peguero the package could be Reynolds for Holliday, Urias, and Stowers? Or if you don’t want to include Holliday then make it Cowser, Hall, and Mayo but I don’t think the Pirates do that deal. Holliday just seems like a good trade chip to me…he’s definitely more than two years away, the guy is basically a child. The team is already young with a lot of controllable and good players. I want to see the O’s make bold moves to be good right now.

The window is now in my eyes and it would be good to go all in for a few years instead of waiting for Holliday to show in Rutschmans last year on the team

Perfect offseason? Realistic offseason? Does not compute Anyways, since you asked. This is what would’ve been cool in my book Free agents - Rizzo, Manaea Trades - Holliday, Urias, Bradish, Stowers for Reynolds and Peguero (Pirates) Santander for Snell (Padres) Akin and Cowser for Carrasco and Baty (Mets) Rotation would be Snell, Carrasco, Manaea, Kremer, and Rodriguez Lineup something like LF Mullins CF Reynolds C Rutschman 1B Rizzo DH Mountcastle SS Henderson RF Hays 3B Baty 2B Peguero Bench is Mateo, McKenna, Vavra?, backup C Obviously there’d be room to move guys around. I’d probably alter the Mets trade to get McCann and keep Cowser assuming the Mets are interested in letting Baty (who is blocked) go in exchange for a significant salary dump. No idea about Vavras spot, but a lefty pinch hitter who plays multiple positions would be cool. I’d love to write in Frazier for that position but I doubt he’d sign here if he wasn’t promised every day at bats.

I liked the Lewin Diaz move the first time, and I like it the second time. Not that I’m convinced that he will figure it out at the major league level but he’s got a higher defensive floor than any other first baseman hanging on or around the 40 man roster so that’s gotta count for something. Considering this last spot on the 26 man roster is a pure depth position and whoever ends up there isn’t going to be in the lineup all that often anyways, I think Diaz is a good fit. He can’t hit lefties so he’s a strict platoon player and defensive replacement but there’s enough potential there to be intriguing. Of course, I’d rather a trade for Bryan Reynolds or Brett Baty or even Jared Kelenic…someone with an actual shot at being more than a replacement level player. But I don’t see Elias making any real moves this off season.

There aren’t really that many holes to fill on the roster but yet for each one he has gone in the direction of financial conservatism. The only difference this year is that he is spending a little in free agency rather than the waiver wire. This tells me he is very conscious of the budget and has tried to delegate by spreading the money out to multiple okay at best options rather than one solid option. My understanding is that Elias was told that when the team becomes competitive, then the team will spend. They’re not spending and the team should be competitive. Elias is notoriously tight lipped but yet he publicly eluded to participating in the market. All signs point to ownership changed their mind rather than a misinterpretation by Elias.

I’d like to see Mullins moved to 7/8 in the lineup vs lefties which would limit his at bats a bit. So I might limit him to around 600 since he’ll sit against some tougher lefties also. I fully expect Santander and Hays to have injuries, but let’s say they stay healthy then it’s probably due to a reasonable amount of rest throughout the season. Depending on how he looks, Hays might be a good option to replace Mullins at lead off against lefties. Not sure I’d want to count on that though. I’ll say about 550 for Hays, 600 for Santander with added rest days included. But both of them will likely be on the IL for some length. I think we’ll see a frustrating amount of Frazier in the lineup. I’m predicting around 550. He’ll be an every day player for the most part. Henderson and Rutschman I expect to see as much as possible. I’ll say 650 for Henderson, 550 for Rutschman. Rutschman will get the Wieters treatment…Henderson will hopefully hit well enough to be somewhere within the top 5 of the lineup every day. Mountcastle will he given every opportunity to redeem himself. I don’t expect O’Hearn to factor into his playing time since O’Hearn is really awful at baseball. I’ll predict 600 for Mountcastle. Im not sure they treat Mateo as an every day player anymore. What would make the most sense is to have Henderson at SS, Urias at 3B most days, and Mateo backing them up. Henderson moves to 3B to get Mateo in at SS. Stowers will probably start getting the Vavra treatment. I imagine something especially dumb will happen consistently like McCann getting at bats over Stowers. Not sure I can even really predict these and the rest since they’re all part time players. I do expect to see a lot of rotation through the DH spot to help keep the main guys fresh.

I know I’m just kind of repeating what you’re saying here but we’ve got 5 more years with Adley on the team. 2023 is a wasted year. That makes a projected window of having at least one superstar level player to 4 years. It’s arguable whether or not the window is exclusive to Adleys tenure in Baltimore but it seems obvious after 2022 that the window should be open now. The moves by Elias has not reflected that and his “hard to chart a path to the division” comment speaks volumes as to the type of efforts I expect him to make in the coming years

I feel it’s the opposite. How long until Elias can bow out? He’s got to be wondering where the money he was promised he could spend is. He has got to be looking at ways to get away from this organization.

Good, but not great by design