oriole

I’ve warmed to the idea of Benintendi in LF. Move Hays to RF, Santander at DH and that’s a good outfield defense. Brantley would be good too but then you’ve got to depend on Santander in RF which isn’t ideal, but not a deal breaker. I don’t see much value in going after other mid level position players really. I know the offense could use a boost but if they’re not shopping at the top of the list (they’re not) then is it really even an upgrade over what they’ve got? Of course, Correa would be cool too. Mateo would be a really good option at 2B IMO. But I have absolutely no confidence in that happening. SP is harder to predict. I really think a couple of above average lefties would be a good approach. Means is a good ways off and Hall is far from a guarantee. That leaves the rest of the rotation options from the right side. Do I expect them to land Rodon? Absolutely not. Do I really want to give Quintana a big contract after having an outlier year? Also absolutely not. So, that’s not an easy spot to fill. I’m sure we’ll see a mid tier guy like Taillon or Walker signed. Plus, for as much as I’ve heard Hyde rave about Lyles, I think we may see him back.

Exactly this. It’s seems a little counter intuitive but to be a perennial contender then free agency is a supplemental resource. If you’re depending on free agency to build your team, not gonna end well if you’re not a financial behemoth. Also, it’s worth noting that Elias has been a beast at waiver claims. A good portion of success is due to good bullpen pick ups plus Mateo and Urias. I don’t know if Elias has been lucky, is good at recognizing potential, or knows how to develop players well but if he can continue that trend then you could have a whole other way of acquiring talent that doesn’t break the bank or the farm. Obviously you don’t want to depend on that…but let’s say Urias and/or Mateo are eventually traded for a decent mid-tier prospect then there’s depth being made from thin air. Especially if you’re trading them since you have guys coming up to take their spots. Perennial contender would be nice but if this ends up being a solid 5-6 competitive window where they’re legitimately in it every year then I wouldn’t be too upset with that.

Shhhh John might be perusing the boards. Don’t want to give him any ideas

I think it’d have to be a pretty overwhelming offer to get Mullins. There isn’t another lead off style plus defender center fielder on the roster. Maybe Cowser can replace him but that’s far from a guarantee right now. Hays and Mountcastle would be sell low candidates and for that reason, I think they stay. Mountcastle obviously hit into some bad luck last year and Hays showed signs of his potential but was probably playing through significant injury towards the end of the season. So both have a lot of unrealized upside that is probably more valuable if they were to stay rather than whatever you’d trade them for. Same idea goes for Mateo. Especially with the larger bases coming in 2023. Not to mention that Mateo seems like a good option to move to 2B since the shift is gone. The potential of his contributions outweigh what I think they could get for him in a trade. The two major league pieces that I could see being moved are Urias and, to a lesser extent, Santander. Urias had a decent year, improved his reputation (but maybe not his trade value so much) with the gold glove, and he has a lot of control left but he is very much redundant on a team with as many infield prospects as this team has. Santander had a very good year but Elias has publicly refuted interest in trading him. Of course, that could be a ploy to increase potential suitors offers if he is seen as less attainable. But he also has a point when he says having Santander in the middle of the lineup is a good thing for the Orioles. Even if Santander was the every day DH and sometimes played the OF when Rutschman is DH then he would be a really good player to have around. If you trade him, you’ve got to replace his contributions somehow and that means signing someone. So then you run into the quandary of whether you trade him to fill another need and then sign someone to replace him or do you just keep him and sign someone to do what you were trading him for. Also, I think we see at least one of our better, but not best, prospects moved this off season. Probably from the infield bunch. Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo….one of these guys is my guess.

Heck yea

Hasn’t he said a #3 starter? I know we’re all hoping for a bona fide ace but it’s just not realistic. Not that it couldn’t happen…they’ve got the pay roll space for it. I’ve just never seen the O’s give out real big contracts to pitching before

Seems like more trouble than he’s worth. It’s funny that Elias can justify giving Johnson a roster spot a year before he is even able to get into a minor league game but he didn’t protect Pop. I get that Johnson has a higher ceiling but Pop seemed more of a sure thing in a shorter time frame. Oh well…doesn’t matter now. Hopefully he can develop that change and be a rotation option

It’ll sort itself out. Someone will probably get injured at some point or just come out the gate pitching like a stinky turd. Hopefully 2-3 SP are brought in with at least one being a proven and consistent option. Depth will work in their favor. That means Wells should be viewed as a starter until he’s not. Same should go for Voth, Kremer, and Bradish. Someone will go to the bullpen and spot start when needed. Exactly who depends on spring training, injuries, and how well they’re actually doing

Exactly why I’d be very hesitant to move Mullins for anything that could be attained elsewhere. He may not be the 30/30 guy of 2021 but he is still an extremely well rounded player to have on board. Except maybe his hitting vs lefties

Yea. I agree. Not to mention they’ve got a lot of right handed hitters already. Not sure it’s worth trading away a GG lead off hitter for something that could be signed or traded for otherwise. Because then they’d need to trade for or sign a CF. Maybe once we see Cowser vs major league pitching then he could take Mullins’ place but that time hasn’t come yet

Now about his cousin…where will he end up on this list?!

But then who would play CF for the O’s? Certainly no one better than Mullins. Maybe Miami could be convinced that Hays is a CF? Certainly not for Cabrera though Rogers would be fine as long as a supplemental target but someone with more consistency and upside really needs to be traded for or signed.

I was hoping the cowboy hat conveyed my detachment from reality

I’ll go ahead and be hopelessly optimistic. Let’s say they recognize the years with Adley is a prime contention window and they decide to go all in. Verlander shouldn’t need any more than a 2 year commitment as long as the money is right. Go ahead and sign Correa and move Mateo to 2B where he can make up for the lost shift with his speed and range. Trade Holliday for a year of Ohtani because by the time the kid is ready, we’ll be nearing the end of this supposed magical window of competitive relevance.

I’m hoping to be surprised by their willingness to spend. I know I’m setting myself up for disappointment, but the way everything is set up with a deep farm and low pay roll just seems like the perfect storm to spend heavily.

Nope, not much of a difference at all. Doesn’t mean I expect Elias to give up draft picks unless one with draft pick compensation falls in value enough for him to justify it. I don’t know what that threshold is, nor do I think I’m savvy enough to pretend to know. Just speculating that he is hesitant to risk limiting his draft options.

Short sighted to put a lot of focus on the long term? It’s mostly subjective but I don’t know if short sighted is the right term. If it’s give up draft picks or sign no one, then I’d bet they’ll give up the draft picks. But as long as there are other options on the table, I see Elias going that route.

The only reason I say that is that Elias seems to put a lot of value on a consistent pipeline of talent, which is usually orchestrated from good drafts strung together. You could say that a signing of someone like Bassitt makes someone like Watkins or Voth expendable so then you may be able to trade one of those guys for a similarly valued player as whatever you’d get with your 3rd draft choice. I don’t have a lot of confidence that that’s the case though. I think Elias will probably work hard to keep all his draft picks

I think anyone with draft pick compensation attached will likely be passed on.

I’ve posted multiple times on what I want them to do and what I hope they do. My actual speculation is “no idea” though because we haven’t seen Elias in buy now mode before. But if I had to guess I’d say they sign a veteran DH and a veteran SP, neither of which will be in top tier of free agents and definitely no one with draft pick compensation attached. Something like Walker and Brantley sounds about right. I’d personally be underwhelmed but I’ve had some unrealistically high hopes ever since the “lift off” comment. This is still the Baltimore Orioles though so a couple good but not great free agents and maybe a couple kinda significant trades are in the cards? I never end up actually finish the MLBTR free agent prediction thing, but if I guessed my Orioles signings, I’ll go with Walker and Brantley.

Nimmo, Rodon, Manaea signings would be cool Nimmo LF Rutschman C Henderson 3B Mountcastle 1B Santander DH Hays RF Urias 2B Mullins CF Mateo SS Rodon, Manaea, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish not bad but Elias mentioned signing a #3 pitcher and upgrading multiple offensive pieces. So this is not happening. Sure would be cool tho

I want to say Westburg is #5, Mayo is #6 but the option isn’t there so I’ll go with what’s presented. I am going to be surprised at the top 4 only because I don’t see Hall as a top 4 prospect nor do I see him dropping out of the top 10. I guess with that thought I could’ve picked Mayo #5 and Hall #6.

I wouldn’t be upset if he was signed in addition to someone with more upside. But if he is the “top” guy then I’ll be left a little nervous. I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on Voth or Watkins types to be anything more than depth. They’re back up back end types.

Call me crazy but no thank you to the SS market and DeGrom. We’ve got a plethora of infield prospects on the way, I’d prefer them to spend the money elsewhere. And DeGrom spends too much time on the IL to justify spending $35m+ per year on. Of course, if they sign Correa and DeGrom I won’t be losing any sleep. I just think it’s a waste of resources.

If I had to pick only four this would be my preferred offseason. Note in advance that I suck at pretend contracts Sign Rodon to a 5/120…specifically would be cool if it were front loaded but don’t really know how common or feasible that is. Trade Santander and Westburg to Miami for Lopez. The baseball trade values page may say it’s a low ball offer for Lopez, but any more seems a bit much to me. Assuming no QO, sign Rizzo to a 3/45 deal. Maybe that’s low AAV and too many years. I don’t know, like I said, I not good at this. Lastly, without getting cutesy…sign Manaea to the same deal that they gave Lyles. 1/6 with an 11m option and 1m buy out I think it was?