seak05

For most of these things Forbes is taking a guess (this is also true of Forbes celebrity net worth stuff...and well all of the lists that they do). The truth though is that profit isn't the important number here, and isn't what the owners care about (except when they're negotiating CBA's with the players), it's the value. Cohen can operate at a year to year loss because the overall value of the Mets is increasing, so he's making a profit on the investment. It's also though why you need an owner with liquid cash assets, so they can spend based on the value increases rather then having to rely on year to year profit.

:shrug: Mateo as the backup CF makes sense if you're trying to free up a roster spot, and plan on playing Mullins basically every game. If you're actually worried about Mullins against LH/planning to rest him 1-2x per week then McKenna is the better option. I would guess that Vavra then becomes the backup corner OF/defensive replacement?

But why wouldn’t you just play McKenna in that scenario? Who hits lefties much better. Matteo btw barely hit lefties better than Mullins last year. When/if Ortiz comes up there is no real reason for Mateo to be on the roster. Same with Westburg if the orioles think he can be a backup SS (in addition to playing regularly at 2b/3b)

Mateo vs LHP last season .203/.253/.365/.618 McKenna vs LHP last season .270/.333/.460/.794 This is why it doesn't really make sense to play Mateo anywhere other then short stop. Literally anyone else is a better bat, so he's only in the lineup for his defense

Wells was very good today. Grayson was great last year in triple a and is obviously a top prospect, but you’d be hard pressed to say he was one of the orioles top 5 starters this spring

With just over a week until Opening Day, who makes the final MLB roster? Safe = 18: SP: Gibson, Ivin, Bradish, Kremer RP: Bautista, Baker, Perez, Akin IF: Mateo, Mountcastle, Urias, Henderson, Frazier, Rutschmann, McCann OF: Santander, Mullins, Hays Prediction: SP: Rodriguez RP: Wells, Voth (especially with Givens injured, I think these two are definitely on the roster), Bauman, Politi IF: Vavra OF: McKenna, Stowers

congrats Japan

McNeil is such a good hitter

I've watched parts of a bunch of games. The energy has been great. Mullins up in a big spot

Dave Johnson went on an extended soliloquy about the joys of bunting, and it wasn’t the worst part of the broadcast

Clearly development can happen in the majors. In fact nearly every player goes through an adjustment period when they are promoted, Adley last year is another good example. Development isn’t exclusive to the majors though, the minors, spring training, and the off-season are also important to the development process. It also can be based on what you need to work on. The off-season seems to be a prime time to develop a new pitch for instance, while learning how major leaguers attack you can only happen at the major league level. That said, the *results* tend to matter a lot more at the major league level. If Grayson is facing the NYY I want him throwing his fastball & chanegeup, not working on his curveball. If he’s facing the Durham bulls, he can throw whatever pitches he likes.

I believe he is referring to Bradish's time in Florida at the O's camp there as the minor leagues. Bradish spent time there before going on his rehab starts in the MiL, and came back with a slightly different arsenal (and new plan). Spring training stats are meaningful, how much meaning, and what they mean is up for discussion. They're basically all small sample size. Last year's performance should certainly be given much greater weight, of course that's true for Voth and Wells too. When a guy is pushing to make his major league debut, you would generally like to see them really making the case, even in spring training. I think Grayson has proven over the course of a larger sample size that he's ready, but he is looking to beat out other people who have had major league success, and he certainly hasn't erased any doubt this spring.

Wells and Voth both had success getting big league hitters out last year, Wells was good two years ago as well. If they're all struggling, you go with the guys who have already done it. I want Grayson to succeed, and I want to see Grayson in the big leagues...but if he's having trouble with the shape and location of his breaking pitches, it's probably better for him long term to work on them in triple-A, where the Orioles can tell him to throw a lot of CB/Sliders regardless of result

The fact that he’s going to make the roster over westburg might be the most frustrating thing that’s going to come out of this spring training

The rambling about bunting

If I'm being honest Grayson might be opening the door for everyone else in the starting rotation competition

Came back and got the next 3, good response

Well you have to have someone at dh and someone at 1b, so there should be enough at bats for both of them. But yeah eventually mountcastle could absolutely get squeezed

If things work out, Santander gets pushed to DH and first base. Cowser at least is a much better defensive outfielder. There are at bats to go around. The guy who would really be squeezed is probably stowers

Prospects tend to fall into tiers, and then the rankings in the tiers is more about splitting hairs, and preferences. The orioles seem to have a very clear top tier of 3 guys, ortiz isn’t in that tier. They then have several very good prospects in the next tier, and I’d put ortiz there.

Even top prospects who move fast tend to spend a couple years in the minors. Franco played at every level but double A (and that was the covid year), including 40 Triple A games and a whole year in the various A balls (after playing rookie league the previous year, granted at 17 because he was an international prospect). Corbin Carroll had 657 ML plate appearances, and that's even with losing a year to covid/practicing at the alternate site, and injury. Michael Harris II had 828 ML plate appearances, and spent an entire year at High A, before being promoted from double A, plus the covid year. Gunnar was pretty much the youngest player at every level he played at last year. If Holliday plays like we all hope he does, the Orioles will move him just about as fast an any organization out there

Elias philosophically seems to like to start guys a little lower, to let them get off to good starts (and end them a little higher to give them a cup of coffee at the next level), add into that that Aberdeen is where offensive prospects went to die last year, in terms of their stats, and my guess is Holiday starts at Delmarva, but ends the year in Bowie.

People on this board really underrate the need for good defense in CF. Mullins is a well above average MLB player even if he hits like he did last year. The chances of the Orioles being able to replace him with someone who is a better overall CF is incredibly low, even if he hits the same as he did last year. That's why Nimmo got such a large contract. If you want the Orioles to trade Mullins it had better be for a real upgrade at another position (now Elias might trade him for prospects, and that might even be a good overall baseball more long term...but not for 2023/24)

Hays is a bow avg defensive of at this point in his career. If he’s covering cf you have three below, to well below (santander) defensive of in your starting lineup. They’re not going to trip and call, but it won’t be pretty. Plus losing mckenna takes away your ability to make a defensive substitution late in games. I know some people like to focus on offense only, but defense matters in roster construction. Also mckenna hits lefties fairly well (and probably should never bat vs righties).

I think expecting Holliday to exceed Machado is silly. Even Manny had a full minor league season, plus a half season at double a (and his draft year season), and he put up a .749 ops.