seak05

I thought it was an out, nice relay throws

Statistics are a tool, it becomes a problem when people confuse them for a tool belt. The relative success rates for running on contact are something that a good 3B coach should both know, and consider. But if they're not also factoring in who will be up next, speed of the runner on 3b, the relative strength of different players arms etc, then they're not using statistics correctly. On the other hand the Orioles currently have 0 players with a better then 30% chance of getting a hit...so if the next batter needs to get a hit in order for the run to score....you probably are better off taking the 33% chance they'll score by running on contact

In SSS data (last year and this with the Orioles), Mateo seems to move well towards the thirdbase line, but struggle on balls coming in. He was -OAA coming in on balls both last year and this year, this year he is neutral for the year on OAA, due to adding value going towards 3B

Not you personally, just seems like a number of people in this thread are lumping the Baltimore Sun not sending reporters in with the Angelos' cheapness, masn not sending crews etc. MASN sending someone wouldn't cover for the Baltimore Sun not sending someone

It's pretty frustrating, because if you look at the advanced batting stats the Orioles are actually top 1/3 in exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit %. They're just hitting into some really bad luck. At some point that has to change, one hopes.

The Baltimore Sun is owned now by a hedge fund as part of a conglomeration of other newspapers (this has been true for a while, just the hedge fund has changed). They are uninterested in reporting or covering local news or paying reporters, but instead in the value of the assets - which they will sell off. Subscriptions and readership make money - they just don't make a newspaper as much money, so if all you care about is maximizing profits for shareholders, then you don't pay reporters (it's the difference between caring about net profits vs gross profits). There have been several stories about it. As previously mentioned a new Baltimore paper, the Baltimore banner, is in the process of being launched with a different funding/profit model. The Angelos' don't own the Sun, and they don't pay the salaries of Sun employees. Fundamentally, the Sun - or any other independent media, covering a team is different then the team paying for its coverage ie masn. (as an aside, Nashville's crime rate is above the national avg, but if you're a tourist visiting a city you go to the tourist areas, and aren't watching the daily news about a place. You're also perfectly safe walking around the Baltimore Harbor or Harbor East) https://247wallst.com/city/nashville-tn-is-among-the-most-dangerous-us-metro-areas/#:~:text=Up 8% from 2019%2C the,nearly 29% year over year.

Any options before May 2nd don't count (this year only)

Ellis starts tonight

Yeah, he got a few million in signing bonus from the Angels, and is now in the standard 6 years of team control, with free agency at 29. So far he's made about 10mil in ML salary, with another year of team control (with arbitration), for a total of 13 million + 1 year. If he'd waited to 25 to sign, he'd have been looking at a 9 figure contract. So to say he cost himself a lot of money is an understatement.

I put this in Vavra's thread as well. but I think the thing to keep in mind is if you're constructing a roster, you need a bunch of bats that have positional versatility, in addition to your 5(ish) guys who are lineup every day players. If these three can handle moving positions around, you increase your roster flexibility at the major league level. And with the amount of shifting teams do nowadays, your 3b is going to be playing SS several times a game

You all are constructing the roster as if the Orioles are going to have 9 guys with 500+ plate attempts. The reality is teams usually have more like 4-6 of those guys, and then 12 guys (in total) who get 200+. Even if Hays and Urias are both 400 PA guys (ie Brett Gardener last year), that's still 300+ PA for another bat

I sort of feel like Vavra is a Jeff McNeil-lite?

A muscle strain is a tear, by definition. Grade 1, 2, 3 refer to the amount of the tear. For an athlete grade 1 tear is usually a few weeks, grade 2 - months, grade 3 - potential surgery. (a strain and a sprain are two different/related things) https://www.hss.edu/conditions_muscle-strain.asp

Question on Urias, I noticed a few people say he doesn't have the arm for 3rd, but if he can play SS, that generally requires more arm strength (ball in the hole)? And yeah, I don't get the love some people around here have for Nevin, he's had a couple hot weeks at Triple A. The question I would have is can Vavra play 3b, but he's never played over there

I just went and looked because I was curious. Basically under current MLB CBA rules, if you sign before your 6th year of pro-ball/under age 25 you are subject to the international draft pool rules, same as the 16yo's. On the other hand if you sign after your 6th pro season or you're 25, you are essentially a free agent, and can sign for whatever contract you can get. As to the specifics with the Japanese posting system, if they sign before the 6th year it's a flat 20% to the Japanese team, if after the 6th year, it's a sliding percentage based on the value of the contract. h/t cbssports for breaking it down https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/roki-sasaki-scouting-report-what-to-know-about-japanese-phenom-his-possible-mlb-debut-date-and-elite-heat/

yeah, along with Beau Taylor (a catcher, in case you've forgotten like me)

He's not going to ask to be posted until he's 25 (in 2027). And then yeah, even if the Orioles made an offer (lol), he's likely to go somewhere with an existing Japanese population....which isn't Baltimore

I think/hope Vavra is the Owings/Gutierrez/Odor/McKenna (3 out of 4) replacement. Theoretically Urias can slide to 3b (and SS when Matteo needs a day off), and Vavra could slide to the OF when Hays/Mullins needs a day off. Keep in mind Orioles also have to drop two players at the end of April. You would need to keep someone other then Urias who could play 3b. Vavra hs a 50 grade arm though, I'm a little surprised he can't play any 3b. That definitely hurts him long terms, with his lack of power

Apologies, I was rounding - Bauman has thrown 10, Diplan 30, Ellis has also thrown 30, and Alex W tops them all at 42 (point was a lot of these semi-young pitchers haven't had a ton of big league innings & especially not consistent, in a role, innings)

Thanks Tony, I know you prefer Coby to Gunnar, but did you give any consideration to moving them around given Coby's slow start to the year, while Gunnar is holding his own at double-A?

Are you sure? have you checked his stats lately? (Much rather see them call up Vavra, but not sure if Urias can play 3b fulltime)

I don't like the super 2 service time manipulation, but would argue it's a baseball flaw and not an organizational flaw. That said having a starting pitching prospect make at least a few starts at Triple-A rather then skipping right from double-A to the majors is pretty standard. I think the manipulation was far more a factor with Adley not coming up last year, then it is Grayson being at Triple-A right now. If a player hasn't pitched 6 innings in a while having them do it in the minor's before the majors makes some sense. He went 4 innings, then 5, theoretically next start would be 6.

in 400 ML plate appearances Gutierrez has a .615 OPS, but some of y'all are clamoring for him while writing off pitchers who have 20 IP. As to Nevin I'd like to see him hit for more then a month at Triple-A given his MiLB stats from both 2019 and 2021...and his limited defensive capabilities (plus his OPS is fine right now, but it's not even .900). (note I'm not arguing in favor of playing Odor more, and would be fine with Gutierrez getting playing time...it's just interesting the different ways in which certain prospects are viewed)

This was more so for Adley and Grayson, who will 100% debut at home, because I don't think even the Orioles are that dumb to not have it happen. Bradish, maybe I'm being naive, but there might be a bit of excitement, and having him debut on the west coast at 10pm seems like a really good way to kill any potential excitement over the debut.

I would think Vavra is the first IF up, with Westburg to Norfolk. Also Gunnar has had a solid start to the season as a 20yo in double-A