IPlayGM

I bolded this as a follow up to SportsGuys comment about these lists being meaningless. I think I understand and agree with his sentiment, but a valuable meaning/purpose of these lists certainly is to calibrate your thoughts/projections for your guys with the national sentiment. This allows you to potentially sell high on some of these players. I’m curious how much these lists are used for that, but I don’t think there is a true way to tell.

And I would guess that every person on here would sign up for that 100%.

That certainly makes you feel good and hopeful as an O’s fan.

Dare I say “the Calvary”?!? (ducks head as hangouters begin to throw sharp objects)

No, I think I understood you…I was just countering with that it is more plausible that if DL pitches better than Grayson it is due to more bad than good….I would be beyond excited if it was due to good.

I think if you did a poll on reasons Hall outperforms Grayson, most results would not be “funny”….more like “franchise-crippling”.

I don’t think starting pitching is the #1 inhibitor of our ceiling. Sure we could have regression, injuries, etc, but we do have decent depth. For me, the thing that limits our ceiling is our lineup, and more specifically lack of OBP. I just don’t see us scoring enough runs to get to 90+ wins. Too many guys that are low .300 OBP guys, with a few below that. That was what I was truly hoping we could upgrade this off-season, and now the only way I see that happening is if Elias allows rookies to come in early, and they perform really well. That seems like foolish thinking/planning.

And to me the great unknown is payroll. I think that really factors into this scenario. If we truly knew what the payroll outlook would be, we would be in a better place to make conjectures about this.

I guess my question to this is what is the alternative? Trade these guys for established players I guess is the answer, but I just don’t think that is the MO of the front office. I do think you have to have a healthy blend of youth and experience, and I think we will see that this winter, but by and large this plan has to work based on the developed talent as the foundation, and added pieces as the supplement. But to the original post, I would say yes we are expecting a lot out of these rookies. And I feel okay with that, even if it doesn’t make us World Series contenders THIS YEAR….My hope is continued progression, which would mean playoffs this year and/or 88wins

Agreed. This would be my target.

Oh I agree with you, just having a hard time moving past what has happened in recent Os history. I recognize that Elias wasn’t in charge then, but it is still etched in my brain.

I’ll believe we will spend that much on a FA pitcher (Rodon) when I see it. Just don’t see it happening. I think it is much more realistic we sign a couple bats and trade for pitching. The scenario where we sign Correa and Benintendi would actually make sense with what it would allow us to make available in trades (pick two of Mateo, Ortiz, Westburg, Hays). It’s really going to be interesting to see the direction Elias goes.

I just don’t see how adding two starting pitchers is the prudent approach. If you add a 1-3 type, then your choices for starter are: FA signing GRod Bradish Kremer Wells Hall Voth Watkins Means (June/July) To me, that is a nice mix of depth/quality for limited spending. Use the money to upgrade the lineup for guys that can get on base and drive in runs.

I’m not sure we can make enough moves in one off season to rival these staffs. We would need to acquire 1 legit guy, another pretty legit guy, and have GRod be really good immediately and Bradish and Kremer be who they were down the stretch for a full year. Not sure all those things are going to happen, in fact I’m quite sure they won’t. But I do think acquiring the starters is the right path because it also solves your bullpen depth issues.

I don’t think anyone would argue your point, but we aren’t talking about ‘a bunch of Lyles types’, we are just talking about one who would be our 5th starter. I wouldn’t hate the move, but I feel like we could do better.

I feel like Josh Bell would be a really interesting guy for that spot. I’m assuming he would be pretty expensive, but I think he has the tools mentioned.

A positive OBP is slump proof. The problem with the Mountcastles and Mateos and Hays of the world is that they are completely dependent on the hit tool to get on base. When they slump, it is amplified because of their hitting philosophy, which at this point in their careers I don’t see changing much. So for me it is much more about cycling in TYPES of hitters, ones that can get on base even if their hit tool is struggling. Give me Abreu over Mountcastle, Westburg over Odor and Ortiz over Mateo. The OBP difference in those 3 scenarios seems to be pretty significant, although I attest I did not look it up prior to posting.

The bolded part made me laugh….I think a lot of guys fall in that category!!!

I watch videos all the time of Tiger, Rory and Rahm striping drivers 330 down the middle of the fairway. Why then do I keep fading it 240 into the right rough?!?

That sounds good and all, but how often has this realistically happened? A top 100 pitching prospect moved to the bullpen to start his career so that he can transition back to the starter role? I guess the better question is how many times has this been done successfully?

Well he won’t have to worry about that when he gets to the bigs with Hyde.

I agree with your numbers for this year, my numbers were just my thoughts more long term.

To me, he looks like a #5 starter on a legit playoff/WS contender. Best case #4. But I am not a stat guy, I’m an eye test guy, which I recognize can be flawed. So we have in my opinion the following that currently are in play for next year: Grayson: #2 starter type Bradish: #3 starter type Kremer: #5 starter type Wells: #5 starter type (maybe 4) Means (eventually): #3 starter type Voth/Watkins: bullpen guys, backup starters So to me, it is pretty clear what the target should be in the off-season. But that is easier said then done.

Remember when it was legit discussion about a Santander for Snell trade?!? @Sports Guy would have been an absolute legend if he had willed that trade to fruition!

I think you will find out that Hays (yet again) has been playing through injury for some time now.