Matusz Optioned To Norfolk After The Game

[SteveO]

1) Glad you're not DD.

2) Thanks for providing another example of the kind of frivolous moral condemnation people turn to when they can't think of any other way to explain things.

3) Couldn't agree more.

4) There's a lot of stats/reasons why this statement is a silly one, and they've all been discussed at length on this board.

You can talk about all the extraneous stats in the world.... Wins and Losses matter. Pitching into the 6th inning so your bullpen does not get burnt out halfway through the season matters. I can remember a lot of guys making the same arguments about Daniel Cabrerra..... The reality is that Arrieta has shown NOTHING on a consistent basis that shows he is ready to pitch at this level. I love how when you say a guy does not belong at the MLB level its assumed you think he is junk or a loss. Quite the contrary, it means he needs to work on his craft in a setting more suited to his ability at the current time. I think Arrieta can be a good pitcher just not now

Wins, Losses, ERA, Whip, Quality Starts and innings pitch mean a hellava lot more than FIP, and all the other ridiculous stats his supporters throw around. Since when did baseball become like politics were you can find any old stat that suits their point of view to argue that results do not matter.

Last but not least explain to me how what I said about Matusz is not true? Moral condemnation....uhhhh if expecting a guy to come into camp or work ready to do his job is moral condemnation then we have a different definition of those words. If being unprepared after showing promise and not being able to recapture that promise is not something Matusz needs to take PERSONNEL responsibility for and is "frivolous" then I guess your right ....I dont get it. If the fans have no right to expect the guys who they invest their emotions in as fans to at the very least be professional enough to show up prepared is to much I dont get that either. I can only assume is your opinion since you highlighted that...then geez I guess I am unreasonable....would it be bad if I were pissed if Adam Jones show up weighing 300lbs next spring....would that be ok then or would I be "frivolously morally condemning him"? Course Adam Jones has his head on right and is a professional so we dont have to worry about that. ...

[Flash- bd]

Why is it silly to say that Matusz isn't progressing? Yeah, his ERA isn't 10+ like last year but 5.24 isn't exactly great for your 4th season in the majors.

You misread. Read again.

Look, I understand that young pitchers need to be shown patience, but at some point the pitchers have to produce.

Yes, and at what point is that? Look at the top guys in ERA right now and check out how their careers went. It's not always a smooth ride: Johnny Cueto, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Vogelsong, Jordan Zimmerman, Kyle Lohse, Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, etc. all had considerable stretches of very mediocre-downright bad pitching before they finally put it together. Need I mention Jason Hammel?

[SrMeowMeow]

No...the point is that results are what they are. The standings don't give a ---- about FIP, xFIP, or anything else. If he'd been pitching fairly well overall, and perhaps gotten a bit unlucky, it'd be easier to patient. But, to anyone who's watched his outings (and I've seen every one), it's painfully obvious that he's prone to 3-5 inning flashes of brilliance followed by falling apart at the slightest provocation.

I'm not using ERA to reflect anything other than the obvious. Arrieta's results have been extremely poor, and the O's, more often than not, have found themselves on the losing ends of things when he starts.

I understand that his results have been poor. That's evident. But that's not a smart way to judge players. FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is itself. This has been a sticking point in baseball circles for years, but it's a fact. Arrieta with his 5.81 ERA and 4.01 FIP is more likely to perform well - in simple terms of runs allowed, which is of course the name of the game - over the rest of the season than a pitcher with a 4.01 ERA and a 5.81 FIP.

And yes, there seem to be pitchers who under- or over-perform their peripherals. But they are rare. In the vast majority of cases when people assemble anecdotal reasons (prone to the big inning, headcase, can't handle runners on base, etc etc) to justify why a pitcher's peripherals don't match their ERA, they end up looking foolish. And Arrieta shows no indication of being a pitcher like that based on his career.

[MrOrange82]

Yes, and at what point is that? Look at the top guys in ERA right now and check out how their careers went. It's not always a smooth ride: Johnny Cueto, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Vogelsong, Jordan Zimmerman, Kyle Lohse, Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, etc. all had considerable stretches of very mediocre-downright bad pitching before they finally put it together. Need I mention Jason Hammel?

I know very little about Vogelsong's repetoire, but don't you think it bears mentioning that all of the other pitchers you mentioned (apart from Lohse, who's had a very mediocre career, this year and last year notwithstanding) have-or-had much, much better "stuff" than Matusz, generally speaking?

[CA-ORIOLE]

You can talk about all the extraneous stats in the world.... Wins and Losses matter. Pitching into the 6th inning so your bullpen does not get burnt out halfway through the season matters. I can remember a lot of guys making the same arguments about Daniel Cabrerra..... The reality is that Arrieta has shown NOTHING on a consistent basis that shows he is ready to pitch at this level. I love how when you say a guy does not belong at the MLB level its assumed you think he is junk or a loss. Quite the contrary, it means he needs to work on his craft in a setting more suited to his ability at the current time. I think Arrieta can be a good pitcher just not now

Wins, Losses, ERA, Whip, Quality Starts and innings pitch mean a hellava lot more than FIP, and all the other ridiculous stats his supporters throw around. Since when did baseball become like politics were you can find any old stat that suits their point of view to argue that results do not matter.

Last but not least explain to me how what I said about Matusz is not true? Moral condemnation....uhhhh if expecting a guy to come into camp or work ready to do his job is moral condemnation then we have a different definition of those words. If being unprepared after showing promise and not being able to recapture that promise is not something Matusz needs to take PERSONNEL responsibility for and is "frivolous" then I guess your right ....I dont get it. If the fans have no right to expect the guys who they invest their emotions in as fans to at the very least be professional enough to show up prepared is to much I dont get that either. I can only assume is your opinion since you highlighted that...then geez I guess I am unreasonable....would it be bad if I were pissed if Adam Jones show up weighing 300lbs next spring....would that be ok then or would I be "frivolously morally condemning him"? Course Adam Jones has his head on right and is a professional so we dont have to worry about that. ...

I'll take issue with some of your stats/analogies here as being all that meaniingul. That said, I'm not the biggest FIP fan either. There are plenty of issues at hand with Arrieta's FIP/fWAR. BBref, which use batted ball data from total zone puts Arrieta at below replacement level. fWAR says he's doing pretty good. The bottom line is that Arrieta is being hit hard more than he's being unlucky (imo). There are a number of reasons for that. Since bd0493 is familair with this debate, he knows the counter argument.

[SrMeowMeow]

Wins, Losses, ERA, Whip, Quality Starts and innings pitch mean a hellava lot more than FIP, and all the other ridiculous stats his supporters throw around. Since when did baseball become like politics were you can find any old stat that suits their point of view to argue that results do not matter.

Why would I want to defend Arrieta? Why would I make up an argument just to make him look good? I don't know him. I'm not related to him. And giving him a longer leash means leaving worthier players in AAA, if I'm making a false argument.

Baseball statistics are about understanding the underlying reality. You think a pitcher's win totals represent their quality. In fact, a pitcher's win totals are a result of, among other things, a pitcher's skill, the skill of their defense, and the amount of runs their offense scores. If you had to pick the better pitcher just based on win totals, you'd pick the better pitcher more than half the time. But sometimes you'd also pick Clay Buchholz (8-2) over James McDonald (7-3). Buchholz's ERA? 5.53. That's worse than Arrieta! McDonald's? 2.44. Two forty four!

The more advanced statistics get, if properly constructed and used. the more they tell you. Baseball is not simplistic enough to be understood easily. It takes a lot of hard work and insight. And dismissing that is ignorant.

[SteveO]

Well, I may not have as much of an issue testing these guys at the ML level and accepting some level of failure as maybe you do. The problem is that the failure is across the board and horrific. These guys are running out of options and opportunities, and keeping them on the roster just makes us more inflexible when they don't have options. The situation with this group of young pitchers is hugely disappointing. It's devastating, really. Especially when we have placed so much time and resources into them. I don't know what the answer is, but rationalizing their failure isn't it. We may have to look at this completely different. As you said, guys like Chen and Hammel were acquired fairly easily and have been effective.

I agree with everything you have said. You have to try guys out at the major league level, its the only way to know if they can produce. At the end of the day its about production though and Arrieta and Matusz for whatever reasons are not producing. There is nothing wrong with them going down and trying to work things out there, it does not mean you do not think they can pitch or will not be successful at some point. It simply recognizes the thing that their production clearly states and that is the fact they are not ready to produce now for whatever the reasons are. Making excuses, rationalizing as you said is not the answer. Who knows in 5 yrs both these guys might win 16 games and be big parts of a championship team. Here and now though they are not at that point

[Ampontan]

What I'm against is that Matusz and Arietta are punished for the fact that they brought people's hopes up in the first place.

Well, in Matusz' case they bought into the spring training storyline and probably some of the offseason Brady-training story too. They shouldn't have been too excited even then. Matusz is going where he should have started the year, and would have had not Wada been hurt.

[MrOrange82]

I understand that his results have been poor. That's evident. But that's not a smart way to judge players. FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is itself. This has been a sticking point in baseball circles for years, but it's a fact. Arrieta with his 5.81 ERA and 4.01 FIP is more likely to perform well - in simple terms of runs allowed, which is of course the name of the game - over the rest of the season than a pitcher with a 4.01 ERA and a 5.81 FIP.

And yes, there seem to be pitchers who under- or over-perform their peripherals. But they are rare. In the vast majority of cases when people assemble anecdotal reasons (prone to the big inning, headcase, can't handle runners on base, etc etc) to justify why a pitcher's peripherals don't match their ERA, they end up looking foolish. And Arrieta shows no indication of being a pitcher like that based on his career.

Well, perhaps Arrieta really is exceptional, in a sense. Obviously I WANT Arrieta's results to improve, but I've watched his games since he first reached the big leagues. I don't see improvement, either in terms of paper results or their on-field counterparts.

Count me as someone who would gladly be seen as foolish-by-hindsight in this instance. I don't think that's how it's going to work out, though.

[Flash- bd]

I can remember a lot of guys making the same arguments about Daniel Cabrerra.....

Yeah, and I can remember a lot of people making much more nuanced arguments than what you're making (which basically amounts to: look, Brian and Jake's ERAs and W-L records are bad. Thus, they're not good enough to be with the big club. Send them down.) for why Jason Hammel was no good. So what? Citing Daniel Cabrera's case doesn't prove anything for your point...

The reality is that Arrieta has shown NOTHING on a consistent basis that shows he is ready to pitch at this level. I love how when you say a guy does not belong at the MLB level its assumed you think he is junk or a loss.

You do realize the irony here, don't you?

Last but not least explain to me how what I said about Matusz is not true? Moral condemnation...

This should answer your question...

If he is not a headcase, primadona and lazy, then he sure is doing one helluva good imitation of one.

[Malike]

Hammel and Chen have had the advantage of being new to the league. The longer the season goes on, the less effective they've been. Just because they have had good starts to the season, doesn't mean they will not regress, as we have been seeing lately.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

[SteveO]

Why would I want to defend Arrieta? Why would I make up an argument just to make him look good? I don't know him. I'm not related to him. And giving him a longer leash means leaving worthier players in AAA, if I'm making a false argument.

Baseball statistics are about understanding the underlying reality. You think a pitcher's win totals represent their quality. In fact, a pitcher's win totals are a result of, among other things, a pitcher's skill, the skill of their defense, and the amount of runs their offense scores. If you had to pick the better pitcher just based on win totals, you'd pick the better pitcher more than half the time. But sometimes you'd also pick Clay Buchholz (8-2) over James McDonald. Buchholz's ERA? 5.53. That's worse than Arrieta! McDonald's? 2.44. Two forty four!

The more advanced statistics get, if properly constructed and used. the more they tell you. Baseball is not simplistic enough to be understood easily. It takes a lot of hard work and insight. And dismissing that is ignorant.

Sorry but a 5.81 ERA is not getting done in any sense of the word. 3-9 is not getting it done. If Jake were 3-9 with a 4.26 ERA and a decent WHIP I would totally get the argument. His ERA, WHIP and Record suck. He consistently cannot pitch into the 6th inning and that is also contibuting to cracks in the bullpen. Its hard to paint that any other way. I am not saying that Jake does not have potential or cannot be a good pitcher at some point. What I am saying though, is that if this team wants to continue to try to fight for that wildcard and a potential record above .500 then Jake and Matusz are not putting up the kind of stats and performances that will lend itself to that happening. Being sent to AAA does not mean your giving up on a guy it means the guy is not able to perform YET at level that acceptable for a MLB player. There is nothing wrong with sending him down and giving a guy like Tillman who has worked on things at AAA a shot or acquiring someone who can buy time for these guys to work on the issues with their game they need to at a more appropriate setting. Its not working here at the MLB level and the stats that really matter show that

[SrMeowMeow]

Well, perhaps Arrieta really is exceptional, in a sense. Obviously I WANT Arrieta's results to improve, but I've watched his games since he first reached the big leagues. I don't see improvement, either in terms of paper results or their on-field counterparts.

Count me as someone who would gladly be seen as foolish-by-hindsight in this instance. I don't think that's how it's going to work out, though.

You're ignoring the broader point here. Arrieta was mediocre in 2010. He was worse last year. But his FIP and ERA were very close, as they are for the vast majority of pitchers. His strand rate, by the way, was around 70%, and is lower by a huge 10% this year. He has never in the past demonstrated that he's some sort of FIP anomaly, or that he can't pitch out of the stretch, or that he struggles under the pressure of RISP. Those data outweigh his 97.2 IP this year when you're trying to argue that he's miraculously turned into a pitcher who is completely responsible for the biggest difference between FIP and ERA this season (1.80). His BABIP is up and his strand rate is down from his career numbers. He's getting strikeouts and he's lowered his walk rate. His line drive rate is up which could explain the BABIP, but his SIERA (a FIP alternative that includes batted ball data) is a very good 3.78. Everything points to him being a victim of bad situational karma/luck. If you want to argue that he's an anomaly, make that argument. Don't just shrug your shoulders and agree to disagree. Do some legwork, because you're making an outlandish claim. Unless you really have a reason to shake the foundations of some very reliable statistical analysis, I wouldn't be so glib.

[Flash- bd]

I know very little about Vogelsong's repetoire, but don't you think it bears mentioning that all of the other pitchers you mentioned (apart from Lohse, who's had a very mediocre career, this year and last year notwithstanding) have-or-had much, much better "stuff" than Matusz, generally speaking?

Well, you just excluded two pitchers from the case, but, basically, it would bear mentioning if I thought it were true: you can't argue stuff as a kind of zero-sum game but of the guys on that list the only guys who I'd say have better stuff than Brian Matusz are Greinke, Peavy, and Cueto. That's 3/8...and it can certainly be argued that Matusz's stuff is in the echelon of those three as well. He was, after all, the #5 prospect in all the game at one point (per BA). You usually don't get that kind of recognition if you don't have the pure tools...

[SrMeowMeow]

Sorry but a 5.81 ERA is not getting done in any sense of the word. 3-9 is not getting it done. If Jake were 3-9 with a 4.26 ERA and a decent WHIP I would totally get the argument. His ERA, WHIP and Record suck. He consistently cannot pitch into the 6th inning and that is also contibuting to cracks in the bullpen. Its hard to paint that any other way. I am not saying that Jake does not have potential or cannot be a good pitcher at some point. What I am saying though, is that if this team wants to continue to try to fight for that wildcard and a potential record above .500 then Jake and Matusz are not putting up the kind of stats and performances that will lend itself to that happening. Being sent to AAA does not mean your giving up on a guy it means the guy is not able to perform YET at level that acceptable for a MLB player. There is nothing wrong with sending him down and giving a guy like Tillman who has worked on things at AAA a shot or acquiring someone who can buy time for these guys to work on the issues with their game they need to at a more appropriate setting. Its not working here at the MLB level and the stats that really matter show that

I'm not going to rehash the whole FIP argument running concurrently in this thread other than to say, without offense if possible, that it really sounds like you don't understand the concepts you're arguing against.