Bundy for Justin Upton?

[CA-ORIOLE]

The remaining money on the Upton contract really isn't that bad of a deal. The guys described how 3 at about 13 million a piece really isn't that much for a team looking for a RH power hitting OF'er. Not to mention when you factor in that Upton is ONLY 25. He still has his prime ahead of him, and he still has the tools to be a 30/30 player.

Not only is he a plus defender, he hits for power. In the last two seasons he has managed to hit 48 HR, and drive in 155 runs while averaging a .285 AVG/ .362 OBP/ .470 SLG, which is a 2 year average of and .832 OPS. While his career OPS is also .832.

I find there no reason to believe that his stats can't get better coming to Camden Yards, and closer to home (Norfolk, VA). All offseason DD has said that he wants a MOO hitter, and Upton may be just that. He hits for power, and he gets on base (career .352 OBP). Also since 2009 he averages around 20 SB a season. Backing up my MOO argument I should point out that Upton in a 3 year average (2009-2012) had a .907 OPS with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. He can hit in the clutch AND get on base, which is something that we desperately lacked last year, and really, for quite some time. The next best guy for that description would be Markakis.

All things considered, lets take his averages and put them together. I would expect Upton to hit AT LEAST .285/.352/.470 (.822) with 20 SB--with the potential for more, that's just the base of what he could do next season in Baltimore IMO.

Uptons numbers against the AL the past 3 years? Yes its a SSS but worth a look:

BOS .300/.462/.700 1.162

CHW .600/.583/.700 1.283

CLE .273/.333/.545 .878

DET .360/.429/.360 .789

HOU .291/.381/.564 .945

KC .350/.417/.450 .867

LAA .333/.333/.333 .666

MIN .000/.154/.000 .154

NYY .583/.643/.1.167 1.810

OAK .283/.385/.333 .718

SEA .250/.213/.500 .731

TB .556/.667/1.000 1.667

TEX .308/.308/.308 .616

TOR .500/.538/.583 1.121

Getting Upton allows you to move Reimold to DH and slot McLouth in the 4th OF spot, and really allows for interchangeable parts. LF has been a revolving door for us, for sometime. Getting a 25 year old rising superstar/5 tool player, really could set us up for some big things. I mean, this guy is better than Adam Jones was at this age. He steals more, gets on base more, etc. These two next to eachother in the OF could be quite a treat for Baltimore.

At this point, you could do a one for one. Bundy for Upton, and you COULD argue that Upton is more valuable than Bundy. Upton although more expensive, has already proven that he can steal at least 20 bases, hit 30 HR, get on base, and most importantly, stay healthy for an ENTIRE year. Bundy, hasn't done ANY of that. Not to mention even if Bundy can pitch to a 3.4ish ERA, and pitch around 200 innings, he will only be in 30 of the 162 games. IMO, 150 games of Upton and his already proven ML talent, mixed with his MVP-type potential excites me to no end.

Maybe I am wrong for feelings this way, but so be it. Let me know what you think.

Not sure I buy these SSS's here. Something that is not a small sample size is Upton's pretty mediocre away splits (731 OPS away versus home OPS of .937) though. AZ is generally regarded as a pretty good hitters park. Maybe there's more to it here, but that'd have me worried. No way I'd deal Bundy for him.

[JLee2027]

The Orioles history has always been to keep top prospects. What if we had traded CalRipken Jr. in 1981? Or Eddie Murray in 1977? Or Jim Palmer in 1964? I doubt it would have turned out well.

Mr. Bundy is special. I'm looking forward to see how he develops. As an Oriole.

[Ruzious]

Cuellar and Dobson were guys that other teams gave up on. McNally was a crafty lefty.

Why is that relevant? Is being a "crafty lefty" a bad thing?

[Ruzious]

True, but keep in mind it may mean you are more likely to be building a competitive team, say 2015-2017 than 2013 and maybe 2014.

Or find a better way to get the kind of production that Upton would provide.

[Ruzious]

Btw, this is a good discussion with good posts on both sides. Sorry if I sounded harsh in previous posts.

Upton is a great talent and a quality player, but - Is he the player who had an OPS in the .780's last year, or is he the player who had an OPS in the .890's the year before? If he's an .890's guy, what happened last year that won't happen in the future?

[wildbillhiccup]

I'm saying part of what makes running a baseball team difficult is...the realities of running a baseball team. When your organization is not flush with impact talent on the farm, and the recent success of the MLB club is highly dependent on factors that are most likely going to be difficult to replicate, your options are limited.

If the focus is winning now, moving someone like Bundy makes sense, even if it means you are likely giving up "overall value". The reason is that "later value" is worth less to you than "now value".

If the focus is building a cost controlled foundation to try and set-up a competitive team on a fixed budget (let's call it $100MM), then, yeah, it might mean hanging your short term hopes on guys like Machado, Bundy, Gausman having immediate impacts, and guys like Chen, Hammel, Gonzalez, the entire bullpen, etc. giving you better performance than you expected.

If you want to do both, it's likely the only reasonable way to do it is to decide you are upping spending in the short term by a not insignificant amount.

All good points and you hit the nail on the head. They're approach boils down to cost and whatever the glass ceiling is on the team budget. I'm a strong believer in growing a team organically from within, but in a perfect world we would supplement this strategy with key free agent signings. I'm not saying we need to break the bank on players like Greinke and Hamilton, but there's a middle ground between the superstars and the players the Orioles seem to be willing to settle for, like Conor Jackson. Wilson Betemit, etc.

[Stotle]

All good points and you hit the nail on the head. They're approach boils down to cost and whatever the glass ceiling is on the team budget. I'm a strong believer in growing a team organically from within, but in a perfect world we would supplement this strategy with key free agent signings. I'm not saying we need to break the bank on players like Greinke and Hamilton, but there's a middle ground between the superstars and the players the Orioles seem to be willing to settle for, like Conor Jackson. Wilson Betemit, etc.

This is part of the issue with giving Jones essentially a market deal for an extension. I'd think he's highly likely to provide enough production to be worth his contract, but it will take another step forward for his deal to create the surplus value the O's need. That said, the FO had little choice, considering his hot 1st half (which was fueled by a HR/FB rate that was highly unlikely to be sustainable) and the fact the O's were in it. Being competitive for the first time in a long while, in the first year of DD's tenure, the O's just were not going to move Jones. So, they are locked into the course of action that has Jones as one of the key pieces to be built around.

That's fine, and they can certainly do that. It just limits their flexibility if they aren't creating more room on the payroll in the short term. Once Roberts/Markakis contracts are off the books, that will help. Of course, the O's will need to start thinking about Wieters sooner than later, and actually Machado as well if they want him locked-up long term. They need to hope some of the young pitching establishes itself as a valuable asset so they have trade chips over the next two years. Things obviously simplify the sooner Gaus/Bundy/Machado/Schoop/Hoes are established, and the more production they can provide, the easier the rest of the build becomes.

[CSB Jack]

The problem is that Bundy is just the start of a package that would be required to get Stanton. IMO, Bundy gets Upton straight up. What we can't afford to do is unload the system for one player. I would prefer Bundy for Upton.

From a value perspective this may be right. The problem with a lot of these message board amateur GM trade discussions is they often don't look at it from the motivation of the other team. What is the incentive for ARI to move Upton in this deal? Are they conceding that they are not going to compete now but expect to in 2014 and beyond? Does subtracting one impact position player in exchange for one potential impact pitcher work for their roster?

If I'm ARI and I'm trading Upton I want back a package, unless I already have Upton's replacement on deck and ready to go. I don't know what their needs are organizationally so I don't know what they would be looking for but a one for one swap does not seem to make sense when one guy is an established MLB star and the other is a top prospect who likely won't be ready to be counted on before 2014.

Just to make my position clear, I would NOT call up ARI and offer Bundy in exchange for Upton. What I would do is ask if they are looking to move him and see what it would take. If they said Bundy straight up, I'd see if they were interested in a package of lesser pieces and see if we could work something out. I'd love to have Upton and believe he is going to be a great player over the next ten years. But if only the next three are going to be in Baltimore I don't want to give up at least the next six years of Bundy for those three years. There are other ways for the Orioles to compete in 2013-2015 that don't require giving up Bundy.

[weams]

Why is that relevant? Is being a "crafty lefty" a bad thing?

No. not at all. I love watching him pitch.

[weams]

No. not at all. I love watching him pitch.

Palmer was my favorite though.

[Il BuonO]

From a value perspective this may be right. The problem with a lot of these message board amateur GM trade discussions is they often don't look at it from the motivation of the other team. What is the incentive for ARI to move Upton in this deal? Are they conceding that they are not going to compete now but expect to in 2014 and beyond? Does subtracting one impact position player in exchange for one potential impact pitcher work for their roster?

If I'm ARI and I'm trading Upton I want back a package, unless I already have Upton's replacement on deck and ready to go. I don't know what their needs are organizationally so I don't know what they would be looking for but a one for one swap does not seem to make sense when one guy is an established MLB star and the other is a top prospect who likely won't be ready to be counted on before 2014.

Just to make my position clear, I would NOT call up ARI and offer Bundy in exchange for Upton. What I would do is ask if they are looking to move him and see what it would take. If they said Bundy straight up, I'd see if they were interested in a package of lesser pieces and see if we could work something out. I'd love to have Upton and believe he is going to be a great player over the next ten years. But if only the next three are going to be in Baltimore I don't want to give up at least the next six years of Bundy for those three years. There are other ways for the Orioles to compete in 2013-2015 that don't require giving up Bundy.

The big question there....Is Upton an established MLB star?

[OsHon]

Upton is not a MOO bat. Keep Bundy

[joeyc]

If they spent 15 minutes talking about this, it was a waste of 15 minutes. I find it to be rediculous, myself. There is no way the O's would consider that deal. Unless stanton would be involved, Bundy is going nowhere. Upton, is not that good, period. If they want one of the other pitchers, Arietta, Matus, etc. That may be doable. But no way for Bundy.

[SouthernBird]

Would not let Bundy go at this point. I am sure another deal could be made that did not involve Bundy, and if not simply pass.

[brianod]

The remaining money on the Upton contract really isn't that bad of a deal. The guys described how 3 at about 13 million a piece really isn't that much for a team looking for a RH power hitting OF'er. Not to mention when you factor in that Upton is ONLY 25. He still has his prime ahead of him, and he still has the tools to be a 30/30 player.

Not only is he a plus defender, he hits for power. In the last two seasons he has managed to hit 48 HR, and drive in 155 runs while averaging a .285 AVG/ .362 OBP/ .470 SLG, which is a 2 year average of and .832 OPS. While his career OPS is also .832.

I find there no reason to believe that his stats can't get better coming to Camden Yards, and closer to home (Norfolk, VA). All offseason DD has said that he wants a MOO hitter, and Upton may be just that. He hits for power, and he gets on base (career .352 OBP). Also since 2009 he averages around 20 SB a season. Backing up my MOO argument I should point out that Upton in a 3 year average (2009-2012) had a .907 OPS with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. He can hit in the clutch AND get on base, which is something that we desperately lacked last year, and really, for quite some time. The next best guy for that description would be Markakis.

All things considered, lets take his averages and put them together. I would expect Upton to hit AT LEAST .285/.352/.470 (.822) with 20 SB--with the potential for more, that's just the base of what he could do next season in Baltimore IMO.

Uptons numbers against the AL the past 3 years? Yes its a SSS but worth a look:

BOS .300/.462/.700 1.162

CHW .600/.583/.700 1.283

CLE .273/.333/.545 .878

DET .360/.429/.360 .789

HOU .291/.381/.564 .945

KC .350/.417/.450 .867

LAA .333/.333/.333 .666

MIN .000/.154/.000 .154

NYY .583/.643/.1.167 1.810

OAK .283/.385/.333 .718

SEA .250/.213/.500 .731

TB .556/.667/1.000 1.667

TEX .308/.308/.308 .616

TOR .500/.538/.583 1.121

Getting Upton allows you to move Reimold to DH and slot McLouth in the 4th OF spot, and really allows for interchangeable parts. LF has been a revolving door for us, for sometime. Getting a 25 year old rising superstar/5 tool player, really could set us up for some big things. I mean, this guy is better than Adam Jones was at this age. He steals more, gets on base more, etc. These two next to eachother in the OF could be quite a treat for Baltimore.

At this point, you could do a one for one. Bundy for Upton, and you COULD argue that Upton is more valuable than Bundy. Upton although more expensive, has already proven that he can steal at least 20 bases, hit 30 HR, get on base, and most importantly, stay healthy for an ENTIRE year. Bundy, hasn't done ANY of that. Not to mention even if Bundy can pitch to a 3.4ish ERA, and pitch around 200 innings, he will only be in 30 of the 162 games. IMO, 150 games of Upton and his already proven ML talent, mixed with his MVP-type potential excites me to no end.

Maybe I am wrong for feelings this way, but so be it. Let me know what you think.

You are appointed captain of the pro Upton side, good points.