Jim Johnson Today, 2013

[MrOrange82]

Just about all of them, unless they had somebody else waiting in the wings.

And how much has the closer role changed, exactly? I'm not sure there's a better closer in baseball today than Craig Kimbrel, and he's successfully converted 89 percent of his chances. Two years ago, when he won the rookie of the year award, he converted 85 percent. I think in general a good closer is going to blow about 13 or 14 percent of his chances. A great closer will blow maybe less than 10 percent. Johnson has had a mediocre year, obviously. But 31 out of 37 is not that bad. People keep acting like every one of his blown saves is his fault. But even a good closer, if given 37 save opportunities, would blow about 3 or 4.

It's not been the "blown saves," in a vacuum, that's justified the Johnson vitriol. It's the ways in which those games have been blown. On several occasions, Johnson came as close as humanly possible to actually taking it upon himself to lose games (e.g., by walking in tying/winning runs, giving up strings of line drives, etc.).

I posted elsewhere, and it still holds true after today, that JJ has allowed two or more baserunners in more than a third of the games in which he's appeared this season. He has not been a hard luck guy who's been bitten by dying quails. He's repeatedly, even in the games he's "saved," either put runners in scoring position or allowed runners to score (i.e., he's had at least a couple games in which the result was a win, but he nonetheless allowed one or more runs to score).

The fact is that, all too frequently, "saves" has been a misnomer when it comes to Johnson's performances. "Survivals" would be more apt. And I don't want to see that ---- in the ninth innings of games that matter.

Two more runners tonight...like a terrible sitcom on repeat.

[Il BuonO]

It's not been the "blown saves," in a vacuum, that's justified the Johnson vitriol. It's the ways in which those games have been blown. On several occasions, Johnson came as close as humanly possible to actually taking it upon himself to lose games (e.g., by walking in tying/winning runs, giving up strings of line drives, etc.).

I posted elsewhere, and it still holds true after today, that JJ has allowed two or more baserunners in more than a third of the games in which he's appeared this season. He has not been a hard luck guy who's been bitten by dying quails. He's repeatedly, even in the games he's "saved," either put runners in scoring position or allowed runners to score (i.e., he's had at least a couple games in which the result was a win, but he nonetheless allowed one or more runs to score).

The fact is that, all too frequently, "saves" has been a misnomer when it comes to Johnson's performances. "Survivals" would be more apt. And I don't want to see that ---- in the ninth innings of games that matter.

Two more runners tonight...like a terrible sitcom on repeat.

Yep, I posted this in the Back End... thread. He gave up two of the three hits the BP gave up tonight in the same inning, the last one. I feel fortunate to get out of almost any game he pitches.

[MrOrange82]

Yep, I posted this in the Back End... thread. He gave up two of the three hits the BP gave up tonight in the same inning, the last one. I feel fortunate to get out of almost any game he pitches.

Seriously...the fact that I am not surprised to find that the Orioles have lost a game in which Johnson pitches is just sad.

And, since he was mentioned earlier, Lee Smith was 36 years old in 1994. He had four losses that year. Four of his six blown saves came after July 9th. And he allowed 45 hits/walks in 38.1 innings.

Smith had 12 games in which he allowed two or more baserunners in an inning. I'm not going to say that Johnson hasn't been overworked (I think he has been), but he's already had 16 such games. He's also allowed 54 hits/walks in his 42.2 innings.

As for the Hoffman comparison...good grief. I'd trade a dozen Johnson's for one year of Hoffman's prime.

[MrOrange82]

Good post and true. He just puts too many runners on for my taste. Even if he "survives" he puts his team in a tough spot frequently with his hits,

and walks and hit batsmen. Just not dependable any more.

For some reason I think Buck should appreciate the idiom "going to the well once too often." I understand why he'd like to lean on Johnson given that the bullpen hasn't been immortal so far this season, but the results just aren't there. Johnson seemed gassed at the end of last year, and it cost the O's when it mattered most. And now? He's been the other shoe, mid-drop.

[crawjo]

Bailey has five blown saves for the Red Sox and he was first removed after his third on June 20th. They now have gone to using Koji Uehara.

Again, citing the number of blown saves without mentioning how many opportunities those came in is misleading to the point of being almost meaningless. Andrew Bailey blew five saves IN 13 OPPORTUNITIES.

[Redskins Rick]

Again, citing the number of blown saves without mentioning how many opportunities those came in is misleading to the point of being almost meaningless. Andrew Bailey blew five saves IN 13 OPPORTUNITIES.

I totally agree with you on this one.

[Ripken]

At least Matusz was warming up last night. JJ is better than most but when he's struggling, and/or when the opponent has 2 or 3 lefties scheduled to bat in the 9th, Buck has to match up better. Thinking about the 7 blown saves... I thought Matusz should have gotten the call in at least three of them (thinking about NY and in Toronto, especially).

[crissfan172]

1-pitch save tonight. What a great statistic! :rolleyestf:

[Il BuonO]

You don't want to provide some context here? He was removed after three blown saves and eight converted saves. He has given up 7 homers in 22 innings pitched. He was removed in June when he gave up 5 homers and 7 walks in 8 innings. Baily was effective April, got hurt, came back in late May, and wasn't effective at all which basically cut off his earlier success from consideration.

I'm sure you see the difference between Bailey and JJ this season. If you want to be analogous, then Fernando Rodney would be a good comp. Of course, he hasn't been removed from the role so ....

Again, citing the number of blown saves without mentioning how many opportunities those came in is misleading to the point of being almost meaningless. Andrew Bailey blew five saves IN 13 OPPORTUNITIES.

You're both right. Context, but where is the line for Johnson? I'm not comparing him to Bailey, he hasn't been that bad. However, when do you make a decision to go to someone else?

I would refer you to MrOrange82's post #602 in this thread. When comes the time that Johnson should be replaced in your mind? He's blown six, costing us those six games. Do we go to 10, 15? Is there a number or do we just keep on with the status quo?

[OFFNY]

.

JIMMY JOHNSON O (vs. BLUE JAYS, 7/12)

IP:. 0.33 O(SAVE) *

H:o 0

R:O 0

BB: 0

SO: 0

Pitches: 1 (1 Strike, 0 Balls)

2013 ERA: 3.80

* Johnson entered the game with a runner on 2nd base and two outs.

[OFFNY]

.

JIMMY JOHNSON O (vs. BLUE JAYS, 7/14)

IP:. 1 O(SAVE) *

H:o 1

R:O 0

BB: 0

SO: 2

Pitches: 16 (10 Strike, 6 Balls)

2013 ERA: 3.71

* Johnson entered the game with a runner on 1st base and one out.

[crawjo]

You're both right. Context, but where is the line for Johnson? I'm not comparing him to Bailey, he hasn't been that bad. However, when do you make a decision to go to someone else?

I would refer you to MrOrange82's post #602 in this thread. When comes the time that Johnson should be replaced in your mind? He's blown six, costing us those six games. Do we go to 10, 15? Is there a number or do we just keep on with the status quo?

He should be the closer for as long as he is our best option in that scenario. That's a subjective evaluation, but I don't see a clearly superior candidate to him at this point.

I would say that if his save conversion percentage dips much below 80 percent, then that would be unacceptably low. At the moment his percentage is about 85 percent, which is a little bit lower than you would like, but not unacceptable. I would say that if Johnson had given us 35 or 36 saves in 39 chances, instead of 33, most if not everyone would be happy with that.

Really that insane streak this team had of winning games it led after seven innings has spoiled everyone and made them lose perspective on how often you can actually expect good closers to lose ballgames.

[Can_of_corn]

He should be the closer for as long as he is our best option in that scenario. That's a subjective evaluation, but I don't see a clearly superior candidate to him at this point.

I would say that if his save conversion percentage dips much below 80 percent, then that would be unacceptably low. At the moment his percentage is about 85 percent, which is a little bit lower than you would like, but not unacceptable. I would say that if Johnson had given us 35 or 36 saves in 39 chances, instead of 33, most if not everyone would be happy with that.

Really that insane streak this team had of winning games it led after seven innings has spoiled everyone and made them lose perspective on how often you can actually expect good closers to lose ballgames.

Well the historic rate is 85% so I would expect a "good" closer to be over 90%.

[MrOrange82]

I would say that if Johnson had given us 35 or 36 saves in 39 chances, instead of 33, most if not everyone would be happy with that.

Yeah, if Johnson hadn't blown those games, and the Orioles stood at 56-40, in sole possession of second place, just two games behind the Red Sox for first, and in first position in the wild card standings...yeah, everyone would be happy with that.

Sadly, Johnson's blown more than three games. And each one was huge.

[OFFNY]

.

JIMMY JOHNSON O (vs. RANGERS, 7/19)

IP:. 1 O(SAVE)

H:o 1

R:O 0

BB: 0 *

SO: 1

Pitches: 18 (11 Strike, 7 Balls)

2013 ERA: 3.63

* Johnson had 1 hit batsman.