Hypothetical, Jones for McCutchen

[weams]

This really like the DiMaggio Williams deal. Without the benefits.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's quite possible this is true. Then again, it could be completely false. We are guessing and assuming that the team would be rudderless without Jones and that the team would perform worse because of the fallout from a trade. It's just as possible that the team performs as well or better. McCutchen is the better player. He could make the difference in the playoffs between advancing or not advancing.

Who is saying that? Saying someone is a valuable leader is not the same thing as saying the team would be adrift and much worse without him.

[DrungoHazewood]

This really like the DiMaggio Williams deal. Without the benefits.

I thought the main point of that idea was that Williams and DiMaggio would both be radically better suited to their new ballparks.

[Old#5fan]

Read the post he quoted Old#5Fan.

I did and found it idiotic.

[Old#5fan]

I meant Pittsburgh Pirate not Atlanta Brave...

[Old#5fan]

He also didn't get along with some of his teammates causing the trade in the first place.

I never heard that was the cause of the trade. I always read and heard that the GM of the Reds (Bill Dewitt) thought Frank was an "old" 30 as if his best days were likely behind him.

[Outlander]

If I could just defend my thread... First, it's just a hypothetical, I know it wouldn't happen, not would I do it. You have to suspend reality. Second, I thought it would be a cool discusion. In a world where things like leadership and team chemistry are thought to not be real, how ppl felt about our leader vs a superior player. I found it interesting that even sabr heavy ppl acknowledge Adams value vs his stats. Also , seeing how split the board is, shows it's not thaaaat crazy of a hypothetical.

[Redskins Rick]

If I could just defend my thread... First, it's just a hypothetical, I know it wouldn't happen, not would I do it. You have to suspend reality. Second, I thought it would be a cool discusion. In a world where things like leadership and team chemistry are thought to not be real, how ppl felt about our leader vs a superior player. I found it interesting that even sabr heavy ppl acknowledge Adams value vs his stats. Also , seeing how split the board is, shows it's not thaaaat crazy of a hypothetical.

Some would argue that some posters already live i suspend reality! :rofl:

[TouchemAll]

I know cutch is the better player. I know this won't happen. But if you could trade Jones for McCutchen strait up, tomorrow, would you?

I love Clutch but in all honestly NOPE.

[CanadianOriole]

I love our team as much as anyone - and I like our camaraderie - but I think the Adam Jones holding the team together angle is being a bit overstated here. This team churns the margins of its roster all the time - guys who are no doubt friends with others in that clubhouse get shipped to the minors, DFA'd, traded to Oakland after notching 100ish saves in two years, etc all the time. Yes, these aren't players on the level of Adam Jones - but they are humans liked every bit as much as Adam in some corners of the room I'm sure. These are professionals with a strong manager. I doubt very much a clear baseball move made to improve their chances of collectively winning the World Series would cause them to come apart at the seams. Tampa ships out critical cogs on the reg - and their clubhouse somehow stays together and remains competitive ? and those aren?t even baseball moves - they are pure cost cutting measures. I really don't buy the a team of pros lead by guys like Markakis, Hardy, and Davis - with Buck Showalter steering the ship - would melt down when faced with understand a baseball move that makes the team significantly better and improves their collective chances of winning the World Series.

On the baseball side of things - it's not really close. McCutchen's career OPS is better than any season Adam Jones ever had ? or is likely to ever have. He?s working on a streak of 3 straight seasons over .900 OPS. He was almost 4 full wins better than Jones last year. He?s significantly better - it's not really close. I'd make this trade every day and twice on Sunday. Of course this will never happen - it's a hypothetical - but I'd definitely do it.

[Redskins Rick]

I never heard that was the cause of the trade. I always read and heard that the GM of the Reds (Bill Dewitt) thought Frank was an "old" 30 as if his best days were likely behind him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Robinson

Robby's wiki makes slight mention of it, I am sure if you do some research you will find other.

[tettleton14]

I love our team as much as anyone - and I like our camaraderie - but I think the Adam Jones holding the team together angle is being a bit overstated here. This team churns the margins of its roster all the time - guys who are no doubt friends with others in that clubhouse get shipped to the minors, DFA'd, traded to Oakland after notching 100ish saves in two years, etc all the time. Yes, these aren't players on the level of Adam Jones - but they are humans liked every bit as much as Adam in some corners of the room I'm sure. These are professionals with a strong manager. I doubt very much a clear baseball move made to improve their chances of collectively winning the World Series would cause them to come apart at the seams. Tampa ships out critical cogs on the reg - and their clubhouse somehow stays together and remains competitive ? and those aren?t even baseball moves - they are pure cost cutting measures. I really don't buy the a team of pros lead by guys like Markakis, Hardy, and Davis - with Buck Showalter steering the ship - would melt down when faced with understand a baseball move that makes the team significantly better and improves their collective chances of winning the World Series.

On the baseball side of things - it's not really close. McCutchen's career OPS is better than any season Adam Jones ever had ? or is likely to ever have. He?s working on a streak of 3 straight seasons over .900 OPS. He was almost 4 full wins better than Jones last year. He?s significantly better - it's not really close. I'd make this trade every day and twice on Sunday. Of course this will never happen - it's a hypothetical - but I'd definitely do it.

I think the key, to all of this, is that while data is getting better and better at assigning value to players -- the game is still played by humans and supported by humans. And unlike robots, the results of human interaction can not be calculated.

A couple things. We can predict McCutchen would be 3 wins better than AJ, but we can't prove it will happen. If you could prove to the fans that a 1-on-1 McCutchen for Jones trade gets them a World Series title, I'm sure they'd accept it with open arms.

Another thing about people is that emotion does affect our actions, and does facilitate behavior. It can't be quantified. But it's probable that -- even discounting his statistical performance -- the cumulative emotion built up by Adam Jones among the players, fans and people of Baltimore has had a positive result on the Orioles' bottom line (wins, profit margin, business moving forward). Emotion doesn't exist in a vacuum where the simple replacement of another similarly likeable person devalues relationships built over seven years.

Of course, this point is moot if AJ weren't such a productive player. You make this trade if Jones' unquantifiable emotional impact is complemented with David Lough stats. But it's not. Jones is a perennial All Star in his prime.

So, if offered today, I absolutely don't trade Jones for McCutchen. I probably wouldn't even for Markakis, because I'd derive much more satisfaction in a World Series title with him than without.

[weams]

We've also landed on the moon.

Several times.

[Ruzious]

Several times.

What about the Mets winning the World Series?

[atomic]

You can use your own brain power. If you think Jones is the better player then I suggest hooking a car battery and two jumper cables to your ears, to recharge your reserve, its getting low. He's a superior player, and guess what, it's not a slight to Jones, he's just a better player. Oh, and he's cheaper to boot. Here, numbers you might understand.

Batting average > McCutchen

OBP > McCutchen

Slugging > McCutchen

OPS > McCutchen

Stolen Bases > McCutchen

ISO (Power) McCutchen

He's actually two years younger, signed for 40M dollars less, but if it helps you to sleep at night thinking Jones is the superior player, then you win.

Those numbers are not one season, they are for their careers.

His career stolen base numbers.are.horrible. .certainly not.better than Jones. Jones.has more.power.and has more.rbis and runs the past two seasons. The National.League is super.weak. He would not.have those numbers with the Os. Why do you think.all free.agent pitchers want to go to the Natonal league so.badly?