Hardball Times: Tommy John

[xian4]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Christian Vazquez is off to see Dr. James Andrews. Those visits seldom end well. <a href="http://t.co/LhXtZ4ScxW">http://t.co/LhXtZ4ScxW</a></p>— Sean McAdam (@Sean_McAdam) <a href="

">March 29, 2015</a></blockquote>

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[Frobby]

Interesting article by Tom Boswell today, indicating that the Nats believe that pitchers who have had TJ surgery have about an 8-year post-surgery shelf life, and shouldn't be signed for extensions that go beyond that. Thus, for example, the Nats have shown little interest in extending Jordan Zimmermann despite his post-surgery success the last several years, and Boswell speculates the same may be true for Stephen Strasburg. http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/fear-of-second-elbow-surgery-may-lead-to-zimmerman-strasburg-departures/2015/03/29/80367f62-d646-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

[Can_of_corn]

Interesting article by Tom Boswell today, indicating that the Nats believe that pitchers who have had TJ surgery have about an 8-year post-surgery shelf life, and shouldn't be signed for extensions that go beyond that. Thus, for example, the Nats have shown little interest in extending Jordan Zimmermann despite his post-surgery success the last several years, and Boswell speculates the same may be true for Stephen Strasburg. http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/fear-of-second-elbow-surgery-may-lead-to-zimmerman-strasburg-departures/2015/03/29/80367f62-d646-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

Saw that piece.

And yet they target high ceiling pitchers that have had/will need TJ. Bit of a paradox unless they are confident that they can get the players to the majors very quickly.

[Going Underground]

Saw that piece.

And yet they target high ceiling pitchers that have had/will need TJ. Bit of a paradox unless they are confident that they can get the players to the majors very quickly.

I also saw that article this morning. Looks like they try to get them to the majors within three or four years. Looks like they do it mostly with college pitchers. That way they have them under team control. When they are ready for free agency they let them go. Be interesting to see if this works.

[Number5]

Interesting article by Tom Boswell today, indicating that the Nats believe that pitchers who have had TJ surgery have about an 8-year post-surgery shelf life, and shouldn't be signed for extensions that go beyond that. Thus, for example, the Nats have shown little interest in extending Jordan Zimmermann despite his post-surgery success the last several years, and Boswell speculates the same may be true for Stephen Strasburg. http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/fear-of-second-elbow-surgery-may-lead-to-zimmerman-strasburg-departures/2015/03/29/80367f62-d646-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

Boras is Strasburg's agent, so it is a moot point, since an extension isn't a likely option, anyway.

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/tommy-john-surgery-and-throwing-95-mph/

While a lot has already been done on Tommy John surgeries, not a lot of studies have examined the percentage of hard-throwing pitchers who have had the surgery. Jeff Zimmerman did look at pitchers who hit 100 MPH or more and the percentage of them who have had Tommy John (25% had the surgery). What I will be doing, however, is somewhat different. I will look at the pitchers whose fastball averaged 95 or more and the percentage of them who have had Tommy John surgery, as requested by Jeff, - "Help Out: While I looked at pitchers who threw over 100 mph, 100 may not me the key number. Maybe it's 97 mph, or 95 mph. The increase in velocity and increase in TJS can't be ignored. It is time to perform a more thorough assessment."

[Mendoza Line]

Is anyone particularly surprised by this? The human body was not intentionally designed to hurl an object in the high 90s for years on end. Joint damage seems inevitable. I'm just surprised it has taken them this long to evaluate this.

[JLee2027]

Is anyone particularly surprised by this? The human body was not intentionally designed to hurl an object in the high 90s for years on end. Joint damage seems inevitable. I'm just surprised it has taken them this long to evaluate this.

A lot of truth there. It seems velocity only became important when radar guns started being used. It could be the people with high velocity are also more susceptible to needing TJ and those are the ones that get drafted.

[Can_of_corn]

A lot of truth there. It seems velocity only became important when radar guns started being used. It could be the people with high velocity are also more susceptible to needing TJ and those are the ones that get drafted.

I'm going to say that if we grab Mr Peabody and his Wayback machine and go back 100 years you will see that teams would still look at velocity when evaluating pitchers.

[weams]

Matt Cain is experiencing forearm tightness. And off for tests.

[Mendoza Line]

I'm going to say that if we grab Mr Peabody and his Wayback machine and go back 100 years you will see that teams would still look at velocity when evaluating pitchers.

True. But I think guys like Greg Maddux have shown that superior pitching mechanics and great control you can still dominate with a below average speed fastball. He is one noted for having a relatively injury free career because of not overthrowing but instead having impeccable command. I think coaches should be trying to teach young pitchers to emulate this model to be effective with less arm injuries.

[Il BuonO]

True. But I think guys like Greg Maddux have shown that superior pitching mechanics and great control you can still dominate with a below average speed fastball. He is one noted for having a relatively injury free career because of not overthrowing but instead having impeccable command. I think coaches should be trying to teach young pitchers to emulate this model to be effective with less arm injuries.

It's been well documented that Maddux, Glavine and likely others benefited from an increased strike zone at the time which was off the plate. It especially benefited Braves pitchers because Mazzone preached low and away as a mantra and their pitchers expanded the zone when the umpires would allow. I doubt very much you'll ever see this kind of generosity in strike calling again with the decrease in runs being scored and MLB looking for every way it can to increase run production.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It's been well documented that Maddux, Glavine and likely others benefited from an increased strike zone at the time which was off the plate. It especially benefited Braves pitchers because Mazzone preached low and away as a mantra and their pitchers expanded the zone when the umpires would allow. I doubt very much you'll ever see this kind of generosity in strike calling again with the decrease in runs being scored and MLB looking for every way it can to increase run production.

Well since pitch framing is crap it appears the Brewers pitchers are now getting the Maddux/Glavine treatment.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm going to say that if we grab Mr Peabody and his Wayback machine and go back 100 years you will see that teams would still look at velocity when evaluating pitchers.

People were astounded and amazed by the velocity of Jim Creighton. It was one of the major factors in making him baseball's first big star in the early 1860s.

[DrungoHazewood]

True. But I think guys like Greg Maddux have shown that superior pitching mechanics and great control you can still dominate with a below average speed fastball. He is one noted for having a relatively injury free career because of not overthrowing but instead having impeccable command. I think coaches should be trying to teach young pitchers to emulate this model to be effective with less arm injuries.

Few pitchers of any velocity have Greg Maddux' command and control. If you tell a guy who maxes out at 92 mph to drop back to 86 to get better command and stamina there's a good chance the lower velocity makes him a poor MLB pitcher despite the other gains. There is a positive correlation between velocity and effectiveness. No, it's not perfect. Yes there are poor pitchers who throw 97. But, in general, the harder you throw the better you are. Tommy Hunter was barely a major leaguer pacing himself and throwing in the low 90s. He's an average/above-average reliever throwing 98.