Jump to content

20 Games left: Realistically what would it take to get WC? Will 16-4 do it?


Rojo13

Recommended Posts

And the NBA it seems. But the NBA draft is usually 3-5 players deep with those players succeeding at a higher % than in baseball.

In baseball, you can make sure your team stinks from the beginning so you can get a top 3 pick (like Houston or Tampa before them)... but drafting 10th vs 18th thankfully makes little difference.

Folks want to finish in the bottom ten so the first round draft pick is protected so there will be no excuse not to bid for overpriced Qualifying Offer attached FAs so we can win the off-season like the White Sox, Mariners, San Diego, and Boston did. Even though you would still give up a pick in the first supplemental round.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Put it this way...to go 16-4, they'll need to have 4 stretches where they go 5-1. The O's only winning month was back in June when they went 18-10.

From June 2nd to June 28th they went 18-5 over a 23 game stretch.

With the 3 games with the Royals and the 20 games left, they're currently 2-1. So, they CAN do it. But the O's have largely been lousy since then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Rangers and Orioles have 20 games left.

The Orioles have 69 wins. The Rangers already have 75. If the Rangers go 10-10 that puts them at 85 and 67, meaning the Orioles would have to go 16-4 to tie them for the final wildcard.

Sure you can hope the Rangers go 8-12, then the Orioles would need to only go 14-6, but the Twins are only a game behind the Rangers.

The good news for Orioles fans is if the Rangers get real hot, hopefully it comes at Houston's expense. Houston is only 1.5 ahead of the Rangers so if the Rangers are going to go 12-8, we'd better hope 4 of those wins come at Houston's expense. Everyone keeps hoping Houston craters but they scored 5 runs with 2 outs in the ninth last night.

A wing and a prayer, JMHO They would need to run the table. Ok 19-1 MIGHT get it done. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Common sense says the O's are out of it this year. So what? Still plenty of good baseball left to be played whether the Orioles make it or not.

My wife and I were there last evening, and it was as much fun as I have had at an Orioles game in a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My wife and I were there last evening, and it was as much fun as I have had at an Orioles game in a while.

Having never been to OPACY, I can't tell you how much I envy you and your wife. But even watching on my iPad I enjoyed it as well. I thought watching the first KC game was time very well spent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having never been to OPACY, I can't tell you how much I envy you and your wife. But even watching on my iPad, I enjoyed it as well. I thought watching the first KC game was time very well spent.

The state of Tennessee is loaded with minor league teams, isn't it ???

I love going to Tides, Baysox, Keys, and IronBirds games.

And I miss the Bluefield Orioles, too.

The Shorebirds are the only minor league affiliate of the Orioles that I have never seen in person.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The state of Tennessee is loaded with minor league teams, isn't it ???

I love going to Tides, Baysox, Keys, and IronBirds games.

And I miss the Bluefield Orioles, too.

The Shorebirds are the only minor league affiliate of the Orioles that I have never seen in person.

Yes. Vanderbilt is close too. Interesting and different vibe at a college game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  
    • And or give up picks for QO pitchers 
    • They've averaged 92 wins a year the last 3 years in the most difficult environment in the sport with basically the greatest disadvantages in the sport. Something tells me they know a hell of a lot more about this than you do.    
    • Not when they aren't worthy. At minimum the hitting coaches should be el gonezo
    • That is the sign of a stable and successful organization.  Firing people.  Who could argue that?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...