Rule 5 Target(s) - A pair of Twins

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Worst stat, Errors, Saves or Pitching Wins?

Go!

 

I think errors are the worst because it is the most often quoted fielding stat.  At least with saves and pitching wins, you have ERA, Ks, BBs, and even some advanced stats regularly discussed.  With fielding it's overwhelmingly errors and fielding % (which is based on errors) in the general conversation.  Errors are such a bad stat, they don't punish players who don't have enough range to get to the ball and they don't punish players who because of lacking arm strength or a quick release are late with throws.  They reward good hands and an accurate arm, that is all.  That's half of what it takes to be a good fielder at best.  Less than half for outfielders.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Worst stat, Errors, Saves or Pitching Wins?

Go!

 

There are no bad stats — just bad use of them.    I’d probably agree that errors are the most misused of the three.   

[Frobby]

Philosophical question - player A gets to 15 more balls but makes 10 more errors than player B.     Is it clear you’d rather have player A, because he’s still +5 outs compared to player B?     I’ve often felt like error-prone fielders make pitchers more jumpy than range-challenged fielders.     That is, an error will upset a pitcher’s rhythm and concentration more than a ball that just eludes a fielder’s glove by a half-step.     Thoughts?

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

I'd rather a defender get to 20 more balls and make 10 more errors.  He's still generating 10 extra outs.  Errors may be the worst baseball stat, don't get me started on errors.

You misunderstood what I was talking about.

But, it's not errors fault. If two players get to the same number of balls but one commits 10 more errors, the errors tell a story. Some people are sloppy defenders, some have erratic throwing arms. How can those flaws be overlooked in good conscience?

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

 

Of course it's not pure luck. But whether a GB finds a hole or not is and it's not just how hard the ball is hit.  The BABIP of very weakly hit balls is actually quite high, that's not the skill of a hitter. 

Yeah, bad pitching usually leads to a 13+ K/9 and a 30+% pop up rate.  He had a .320 BABIP in 2016 and a .303 BABIP in 2015.  Before you say well he faced better hitters, remember that BABIP decreases as you go higher up in level.  Spoiler alert, it's because defense gets better.

 

Again, you misunderstood what I was saying. I was not talking about the specific pitcher you listed.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Philosophical question - player A gets to 15 more balls but makes 10 more errors than player B.     Is it clear you’d rather have player A, because he’s still +5 outs compared to player B?     I’ve often felt like error-prone fielders make pitchers more jumpy than range-challenged fielders.     That is, an error will upset a pitcher’s rhythm and concentration more than a ball that just eludes a fielder’s glove by a half-step.     Thoughts?

I mean it's hard to quantify this, I mean you could argue the opposite that having fielders who don't get to balls will make pitchers afraid to attack hitters, leading to more walks and long counts. 

 

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

You misunderstood what I was talking about.

But, it's not errors fault. If two players get to the same number of balls but one commits 10 more errors, the errors tell a story. Some people are sloppy defenders, some have erratic throwing arms. How can those flaws be overlooked in good conscience?

Yes, but when quoting errors as a value of someone's defense do you use a stat that speaks to what number of balls a player reaches out of total balls that the rangiest player would have reached (or something similar).

Also, the way errors are assigned is flawed as well.

1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

Again, you misunderstood what I was saying. I was not talking about the specific pitcher you listed.

You misunderstood me then, I was talking about the specific pitcher.  I repeatedly sited his stats in my response.  BABIP allowed is skill related to a degree, I was pointing out that Bard's 2017 BABIP is far out of the realm of what his batted ball profile would predict, far out of the range of career average, out of the range of normal BABIPs of decidedly worse pitchers with worse command and worse stuff.

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

You misunderstood me then, I was talking about the specific pitcher.  I repeatedly sited his stats in my response.  BABIP allowed is skill related to a degree, I was pointing out that Bard's 2017 BABIP is far out of the realm of what his batted ball profile would predict, far out of the range of career average, out of the range of normal BABIPs of decidedly worse pitchers with worse command and worse stuff.

I was addressing C_o_c's comment in a general way. I was not addressing the specifics of what you wrote about. This may be a good example of when communicating in person is clearer than typing in a forum.

[backwardsk]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Philosophical question - player A gets to 15 more balls but makes 10 more errors than player B.     Is it clear you’d rather have player A, because he’s still +5 outs compared to player B?     I’ve often felt like error-prone fielders make pitchers more jumpy than range-challenged fielders.     That is, an error will upset a pitcher’s rhythm and concentration more than a ball that just eludes a fielder’s glove by a half-step.     Thoughts?

I'll take the guy with range all the time.  Runners can advance on balls through the infield.  A guy with range, may not get an out, but keeps the other runners from advancing.  Of course, on the other hand, he could be throwing all 10 of those balls into the stands.

[Beef Supreme]

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I was pointing out that Bard's 2017 BABIP is far out of the realm of what his batted ball profile would predict, far out of the range of career average, out of the range of normal BABIPs of decidedly worse pitchers with worse command and worse stuff.

But I had read this and thought that what you said was insightful. I just was not speaking to it in my comment.

[Beef Supreme]

5 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Yes, but when quoting errors as a value of someone's defense do you use a stat that speaks to what number of balls a player reaches out of total balls that the rangiest player would have reached (or something similar).

Of course I believe that range is crucial in judging a player's defensive skill. I also think that the most overlooked and undervalued aspect of the game is the value of throwing arms -- strength as well as accuracy.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I was addressing C_o_c's comment in a general way. I was not addressing the specifics of what you wrote about. This may be a good example of when communicating in person is clearer than typing in a forum.

I agree, sorry for any miscommunication.  I've heard responses to things I've written before and been like "what were they reading?".

[weams]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Philosophical question - player A gets to 15 more balls but makes 10 more errors than player B.     Is it clear you’d rather have player A, because he’s still +5 outs compared to player B?     I’ve often felt like error-prone fielders make pitchers more jumpy than range-challenged fielders.     That is, an error will upset a pitcher’s rhythm and concentration more than a ball that just eludes a fielder’s glove by a half-step.     Thoughts?

Playing a ball cleanly is far more important than balls gotten to. Those extra 5 base runners are not standing on third or having scored after Trumbo boots the ricochet. 

[Beef Supreme]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Playing a ball cleanly is far more important than balls gotten to. Those extra 5 base runners are not standing on third or having scored after Trumbo boots the ricochet.

My favorite song from Dexy's Midnight Runners' third album.

Yep, get to the ball, field it cleanly, make a strong, accurate throw. Give me those fielders all day and I won't worry about the number of errors.
Of course if they do all that, they probably will have pretty low error totals.

[Beef Supreme]

9 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I agree, sorry for any miscommunication.  I've heard responses to things I've written before and been like "what were they reading?".

We're fine. I am sorry for the misunderstanding, too.
And I know what you mean by "what were they reading?"

[Beef Supreme]

Well, Luke, you said he was one of three Rule 5 draftees who are major league ready. WE shall see if you scored one on...

Quote

Right-hander Luke Bard is turning some heads in Angels camp as he vies for a spot in the big league bullpen, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. The younger brother of former Red Sox setup man Daniel Bard, Luke was selected by the Angels out of the Twins organization in the Rule 5 Draft back in December. The 27-year-old was a supplemental first-rounder back in 2012 but has had his development slowed by shoulder and hip surgeries. Finally healthy in 2017, Bard turned in a 2.76 ERA with 13.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 32 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Bard’s spring ERA is skewed by one outing where he was rocked for five runs in just a third of an inning, but he’s impressed manager Mike Scioscia in the remainder of his outings and expressed a willingness to work multi-inning stints out of the ’pen. “His stuff is good, he spins the ball well, and hopefully he’s going to be a multi-inning guy,” Scioscia tells DiGiovanna. “With the makeup of our club, multi-inning [relievers] are really important.” -- MLBTR